Duke's X-Factor Against St. John's Abundantly Clear

The 1-seed Duke Blue Devils will take on 5-seed St. John's for a spot in the Elite Eight this Friday at Capital One Arena in Washington, D.C. The Blue Devils have marched to their third straight Sweet 16 appearance under head coach Jon Scheyer, and are looking to reach as many Elite Eight's in the same span.

Duke isn't fully healthy and hasn't been since the beginning of the ACC Tournament. Scheyer and Co. got sophomore center Patrick Ngongba back for the Round of 32 against TCU after he sat out with foot soreness for five games.

Duke Blue Devils head coach Jon Scheyer yells down court Saturday, March 21, 2026, during the NCAA Men’s Basketball Tournament second round game against the TCU Horned Frogs at Bon Secours Wellness Arena in Greenville, South Carolina. | Alex Martin/Greenville News / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

However, junior guard Caleb Foster, who fractured his right foot in the first half of Duke's regular-season finale against North Carolina, has also been out since the regular season ended. Scheyer hinted at a potential chance Foster suits up for the Sweet 16 contest, but it seems much more likely than not that he doesn't play.

Several rotational pieces on the bench have suited up for the Blue Devils in the absence of two veteran starters, but St. John's is by far the best defensive team Duke has faced yet.

Mar 22, 2026; San Diego, CA, USA; St. John's Red Storm head coach Rick Pitino reacts in the first half against the Kansas Jayhawks during a second round game of the men's 2026 NCAA Tournament at Viejas Arena. Mandatory Credit: Denis Poroy-Imagn Images | Denis Poroy-Imagn Images

St. John's Could Give Duke Issues With Its Defense

Similar to the Blue Devils, the Red Storm like to grind out games in the half-court and win with physicality and toughness. Like many of the top seeds in the East Region, St. John's is elite defensively.

The Johnnies currently rank eighth nationally in adjusted defensive efficiency and 25th nationally in effective field goal percentage defense (47.2), according to KenPom.

Mar 22, 2026; San Diego, CA, USA; St. John's Red Storm forward Dillon Mitchell (1) reacts in the second half against the Kansas Jayhawks during a second round game of the men's 2026 NCAA Tournament at Viejas Arena. Mandatory Credit: Denis Poroy-Imagn Images | Denis Poroy-Imagn Images

However, there is one area of the game where the Blue Devils can significantly outmatch St. John's, and that facet of the game makes Duke's X-Factor on Friday clear.

Duke Blue Devils guard Isaiah Evans (3) drives to the basket Saturday, March 21, 2026, during the NCAA Men’s Basketball Tournament second round game against the TCU Horned Frogs at Bon Secours Wellness Arena in Greenville, South Carolina. | Alex Martin/Greenville News / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Isaiah Evans Clear X-Factor in Sweet 16

In the absence of Foster along the perimeter, Evans has stepped up in a big way without Foster's 40.2% three-point shooting clip on over three attempts a game. Across Duke's two NCAA Tournament matchups, Evans is averaging 16.5 points per game on 42.9% shooting from the field and 4-of-16 (25%) shooting from the perimeter.

At KenPom, the Red Storm currently rank 218th in team three-point shooting percentage (33.2). St John's has shot the three at an unusually high clip in the NCAA Tournament, but with how elite the Blue Devils are defensively, that is unlikely to continue.

TCU Horned Frogs forward Micah Robinson (5) drives around Duke Blue Devils guard Isaiah Evans (3) March 21, 2026 during the NCAA Men’s Basketball Tournament second round East Region game at the Bon Secours Wellness Arena in Greenville, South Carolina. | Ken Ruinard / USA Today Network South Carolina / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

In a contest defined by physicality and interior action, the three-point line will pay dividends for Duke, allowing it to spread the Red Storm out defensively. Evans is the most reliable outside shooter on the team, and it's crucial he gets his looks against St. John's.