Duke Primed for Top Seed in Big Dance Once Again

The landscape of college basketball has changed dramatically in recent years. The introduction of NIL gave players the ability to earn money for the first time in college athletics, and nobody could have predicted exactly where things would go from there. The college football playoff expanded from four teams to 12, and now the NCAA Tournament has grown from 68 teams to 76, adding yet another layer to the most celebrated postseason in American sports.

With the expanded tournament field comes a new wave of bracket predictions, and Duke is already positioned at the top of the conversation. In ESPN bracketology expert Joe Lunardi's latest projections, the Blue Devils are slotted as a one seed in the South region of the bracket.

Duke Blue Devils head coach Jon Scheyer yells down court Saturday, March 21, 2026, during the NCAA Men’s Basketball Tournament second round game against the TCU Horned Frogs at Bon Secours Wellness Arena in Greenville, South Carolina. | Alex Martin/Greenville News / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

While every region in March Madness presents its share of challenges, the South region in Lunardi's current projection appears to be the most difficult path to the Final Four. If the bracket held, Duke could face a gauntlet that includes Michigan State, Texas, Houston, and Purdue before reaching the national semifinals.

Surviving that bracket would be a significant test of depth, experience, and the kind of toughness that only comes from playing in high-stakes games throughout the regular season.

How Duke Can Be a Number One Seed

Losing Cameron Boozer and Isaiah Evans in the same offseason would be a program-altering blow for most teams in the country. Both players entered the NBA Draft and are projected as first-round picks. Darren Harris and Nikolas Khamenia also departed via the transfer portal and have since found new programs for next season. The losses are real, but what Jon Scheyer has assembled in their place makes a compelling case for why Duke remains a one-seed caliber program.

The returning core is the foundation. Caleb Foster is back for his senior season and projects as one of the better point guards in college basketball heading into the year. Patrick Ngongba made the decision to return despite being projected as a first-round NBA Draft pick, a choice that immediately makes the Blue Devils one of the most formidable frontcourt teams in the country.

Mar 29, 2026; Washington, DC, USA; UConn Huskies guard Braylon Mullins (24) shoots the ball past Duke Blue Devils guard Isaiah Evans (3) in the second half during an Elite Eight game of the East Regional of the men's 2026 NCAA Tournament at Capital One Arena. Mandatory Credit: Amber Searls-Imagn Images | Amber Searls-Imagn Images

Cayden Boozer also returns, looking to build on a freshman year that showed flashes of real potential and take on a larger role in the rotation.

Mar 21, 2026; Greenville, SC, USA; Duke Blue Devils center Patrick Ngongba (21) handles the ball against the Texas Christian University Horned Frogs during a second round game of the men's 2026 NCAA Tournament at Bon Secours Wellness Arena. Mandatory Credit: Jim Dedmon-Imagn Images | Jim Dedmon-Imagn Images

Young Faces

The recruiting class adds an entirely new dimension. Cameron Williams is the crown jewel of Duke's incoming group and arrives in Durham as one of the most talented and versatile prospects in the 2026 class.

He is joined by Derron Rippey, Bryson Howard, and Maxime Meyer, as well as top international prospect Joaquim Boumtje Boumtje, who will be just 17 years old by the start of next season. The depth and upside within that group alone would make most programs envious.

Mar 29, 2026; Washington, DC, USA; Duke Blue Devils head coach Jon Scheyer looks on from the bench against the UConn Huskies during an Elite Eight game of the East Regional of the men's 2026 NCAA Tournament at Capital One Arena. Mandatory Credit: Geoff Burke-Imagn Images | Geoff Burke-Imagn Images

Perhaps the most impactful addition of the offseason, however, is the addition of John Blackwell from Wisconsin. Blackwell was one of the premier scorers in the Big Ten last season, averaging 19 points per game, and arrives in Durham as the most proven offensive weapon Scheyer has added through the portal. With Blackwell stepping into a featured role, Duke has a credible answer to the scoring production that departed with Boozer and Evans.

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