Second-Best ACC Team Behind Duke Becoming Clear

A top threat for Duke basketball in the ACC is beginning to emerge.

Jan 3, 2026; Tallahassee, Florida, USA; Duke Blue Devils head coach Jon Scheyer during the first half against the Florida State Seminoles at Donald L. Tucker Center. Mandatory Credit: Melina Myers-Imagn Images | Melina Myers-Imagn Images

The Duke basketball program has clearly established itself as the team to beat out of the Atlantic Coast Conference once again, but the road to a second straight ACC regular season and Tournament title won't be as easy as it was a year ago. The Blue Devils cruised through a mediocre ACC to a 19-1 league record in 2024-25.

Not only is the conference as a whole in a much better place in 2025-26 than it has been in any of the past five seasons, but there are a few legitimate Final Four contenders besides Duke. After a recent result on Tuesday night, it's becoming clear which squad is likely the biggest threat to the Blue Devils.

Jan 10, 2026; Durham, North Carolina, USA; Duke Blue Devils forward Dame Sarr (7) reacts during a stoppage in the first half against the Southern Methodist Mustangs at Cameron Indoor Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Rob Kinnan-Imagn Images | Rob Kinnan-Imagn Images

No. 16 Virginia (15-2, 4-1 ACC) picked up its fourth victory in a row on the road at No. 20 Louisville (12-5, 2-3 ACC), 79-70. The Cavaliers have now moved up to No. 14 at KenPom and look like the most complete team in the ACC besides Duke.

Virginia’s Chance Mallory drives the ball against Louisville’s Ryan Conwell in the KFC Yum! Center Tuesday night. Jan. 13, 2026 | Scott Utterback/Courier Journal / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Virginia Lights It Up From the Perimeter

Virginia went 14-of-34 (41%) from beyond the arc against the Cardinals, and as a team with one of the highest three-point shot tendencies in college basketball, the consistency with which it knocks them down is scary. UVA's win over Louisville marked the eighth game out of its first 17 with at least 12 threes made.

Any team that can knock volume threes down consistently has a real chance to make a deep run in March. The Cavaliers boast six rotation players shooting 36% or better from the perimeter.

Final: Virginia 79, Louisville 70

Folks, if you aren't paying attention to Virginia, it's time. This team is really talented, and they just dominated Louisville on its home floor.

14 threes tonight makes it 8 games with 12+.

Legit Final Four potential for UVA.

— Evan Miyakawa (@EvanMiya) January 14, 2026

Virginia now ranks 14th in adjusted offensive efficiency and 19th in adjusted defensive efficiency, according to KenPom. The Cavaliers are deep, can shoot the three at an efficient clip (35th at KenPom at 37%), and have length that can match most teams around the land.

Louisville was the consensus pick to be the Blue Devils' top threat in the preseason, but with 5-star guard Mikel Brown Jr. missing extended time due to injury, the Cardinals have hit a rut and now could fall out of the AP Top 25 altogether.

Virginia now sits at No. 16 in the NCAA NET Rankings with a 3-1 record in Quadrant 1. Ryan Odom's club does own a Quad 2 loss to Butler on a neutral floor.

Jan 6, 2026; Louisville, Kentucky, USA; Duke Blue Devils forward Cameron Boozer (12) catches a pass over Louisville Cardinals guard J'vonne Hadley (1) during the second half at KFC Yum! Center. Mandatory Credit: Jamie Rhodes-Imagn Images | Jamie Rhodes-Imagn Images

Duke Will Be Challenged

At this point of the 2024-25 season, Duke was so far and away the best team in the ACC that it didn't even feel like real competition for the Blue Devils. However, UVA, in addition to a few other programs, is now proving to be a real threat to the Blue Devils' repeat hopes.

Duke will take on Virginia at Cameron Indoor Stadium on Feb. 28.

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