Trendy Upset Pick Rising That Knocks Duke Out

There's one trendy upset pick that seems to be gaining popularity, and Duke would be eliminated if it came into fruition.

Mar 18, 2026; Greenville, SC, USA; Duke Blue Devils forward Cameron Boozer (12) reacts during a practice session ahead of the first round of the men's 2026 NCAA Tournament at Bon Secours Wellness Arena. Mandatory Credit: Bob Donnan-Imagn Images | Bob Donnan-Imagn Images

The Duke Blue Devils are getting set to chase their sixth National Championship in program history as the No. 1 overall seed in the NCAA Tournament and the No. 1 seed in the East Region. The Blue Devils will kick things off on Thursday against 16-seed Siena at 2:50 pm ET.

As the No. 1 overall seed, Duke is bound to be viewed as one of the most popular picks to cut down the nets in early April. However, it seems to be the consensus view that the Blue Devils have the toughest path to the Final Four of any of the 1-seeds in this season's tournament.

Mar 18, 2026; Greenville, SC, USA; Duke Blue Devils head coach Jon Scheyer during a practice session ahead of the first round of the men's 2026 NCAA Tournament at Bon Secours Wellness Arena. Mandatory Credit: Bob Donnan-Imagn Images | Bob Donnan-Imagn Images

The East Region is filled with brand-name programs, such as 2-seed UConn, 3-seed Michigan State, 4-seed Kansas, 5-seed St. John's, and 6-seed Louisville.

However, it seems like some insiders and analysts around the sport are forgetting just how dominant the Blue Devils have been all year. Duke heads into March Madness as the No. 1 team in the AP Poll, the NCAA NET Rankings, and at KenPom.

Mar 18, 2026; Greenville, SC, USA; Duke Blue Devils forward Cameron Boozer (12) during a practice session ahead of the first round of the men's 2026 NCAA Tournament at Bon Secours Wellness Arena. Mandatory Credit: Bob Donnan-Imagn Images | Bob Donnan-Imagn Images

Still, as is usually the case for the top overall seed, Duke is a very popular championship pick among the public.

Feb 10, 2026; Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, USA; Duke Blue Devils guard Caleb Foster (1) dribbles the ball as Pittsburgh Panthers forward Cameron Corhen (right) defends during the second half at Petersen Events Center. Mandatory Credit: Charles LeClaire-Imagn Images | Charles LeClaire-Imagn Images

Duke Most Popular Pick To Win It All

With less than 24 hours to go until the 2026 NCAA Tournament officially kicks off with the Round of 64, nearly 20 million brackets have been filled out at ESPN. Of those, Duke is the most popular pick to cut down the nets.

Currently, 24% of brackets have Duke winning it all. It is followed by Arizona at 20.3% and Michigan at 14.2%.

Mar 18, 2026; Greenville, SC, USA; Duke Blue Devils guard Dame Sarr (7) during a press conference ahead of the first round of the men's 2026 NCAA Tournament at Bon Secours Wellness Arena. Mandatory Credit: Bob Donnan-Imagn Images | Bob Donnan-Imagn Images

March Madness and chalk, at least most of the time, don't mix very well, which sparks concerns for the tournament's No. 1 overall seed at times. But with how elite the Blue Devils have been on both sides of the ball this year, it's hard to bet against them.

Mar 14, 2026; Charlotte, NC, USA; Duke Blue Devils head coach Jon Scheyer cuts down the net after defeating the Virginia Cavaliers in the men's ACC Conference Tournament Championship at Spectrum Center. Mandatory Credit: Bob Donnan-Imagn Images | Bob Donnan-Imagn Images

Trendy Upset Pick Circling Which Knocks Duke Out

Aside from Duke being the most picked team to win this year's National Championship, there's also a trendy upset pick that's beginning to gain some popularity with the public.

Based on the computer numbers, St. John's is viewed as potentially the most underseeded team in the entire tournament as a 5-seed. It's becoming a bit of a popular upset pick to have the Johnnies take down 1-seed Duke in the Sweet Sixteen. However, that won't happen.

Mar 14, 2026; New York, NY, USA; St. John's Red Storm head coach Rick Pitino following the men's Big East Conference Tournament Championship against the Connecticut Huskies at Madison Square Garden. Mandatory Credit: Brad Penner-Imagn Images | Brad Penner-Imagn Images

The Red Storm boast solid computer numbers, specifically on the defensive side of the ball, but the lack of quality wins makes them a very questionable squad to be convinced of.

Early in the regular season, St. John's looked like potentially the biggest disappointment in the entire sport. It headed into Big East play at 8-4 overall with losses to Alabama, Iowa State, Auburn, and Kentucky.

Mar 14, 2026; New York, NY, USA; St. John's Red Storm forward Zuby Ejiofor (24) checks out of the game during the second half of the men's Big East Conference Tournament Championship against the Connecticut Huskies at Madison Square Garden. Mandatory Credit: Brad Penner-Imagn Images | Brad Penner-Imagn Images

Its only wins over Power Conference schools outside of the Big East were against Baylor and Ole Miss, two teams that did not make the tournament.

The Johnnies then turned their season around once league play arrived, finishing the campaign with a 28-6 overall record, securing the Big East regular season title and the Big East Tournament title. But the Big East was terrible.

Mar 14, 2026; New York, NY, USA; St. John's Red Storm guard Dylan Darling (0) drives to the basket against Connecticut Huskies guard Malachi Smith (0) during the second half of the men's Big East Conference Tournament Championship game at Madison Square Garden. Mandatory Credit: Brad Penner-Imagn Images | Brad Penner-Imagn Images

Only four of the 11 programs in the Big East finished with an above .500 record. Sure, St. John's defeated 2-seed UConn two of the three times it faced off against the Huskies, but its lack of quality wins outside the Big East makes it an early upset candidate.