The Two Biggest Keys for Duke Against Michigan

The No. 3-ranked Duke Blue Devils (24-2, 13-1 ACC) are gearing up for what is likely the biggest game of their entire campaign thus far, as they will face No. 1 Michigan in Washington, D.C. this Saturday at Capital One Arena. Tip-off for the contest is slated for 6:30 pm ET.

Both the Wolverines and Blue Devils are hot heading into the heavyweight bout. Duke has won its last three games by an average margin of 22 points, and Michigan has won its last 11 games, most recently taking down No. 7 Purdue 91-80 at Mackey Arena on Tuesday night.

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Fans will be treated to a contest that features the top two teams in both the NCAA NET Rankings and at KenPom. Both schools also each own 10 Quadrant 1 victories on the season, which is tied for the most of any team in college basketball, along with Arizona.

The Blue Devils are currently 10-2 against Quadrant 1 opponents, 16-2 across the first two quadrants, 8-2 against AP Top 25 opponents, and 3-1 in games held at neutral sites this season.

Jan 31, 2026; Blacksburg, Virginia, USA; Duke Blue Devils head coach Jon Scheyer watches his team against the Virginia Tech Hokies during the second half against Virginia Tech Hokies at Cassell Coliseum. Mandatory Credit: Brian Bishop-Imagn Images | Brian Bishop-Imagn Images

However, Michigan is a different monster, as it has looked like one of the most dominant teams in recent memory at times this year. Aside from downing the Boilermakers on Tuesday in one of the toughest places to play in all of college basketball, the Wolverines have also beaten 10 opponents this season by 30 points or more.

Duke has very little room for error against an all-around elite Michigan squad, but these are the two biggest areas the Blue Devils will need to excel at.

mali — Jan 31, 2026; Blacksburg, Virginia, USA; Duke Blue Devils forward Maliq Brown (6) dunks the ball against the Virginia Tech Hokies during the first half at Cassell Coliseum. Mandatory Credit: Brian Bishop-Imagn Images | Brian Bishop-Imagn Images

Protect the Glass

It won't show up in the full game box score, but Michigan destroyed Purdue on the offensive glass in its win earlier this week, specifically in the first half. The Wolverines lead the Big 10 in total rebounds per game (41.5) and defensive rebounds per game (29.8).

According to KenPom, Michigan is 19th nationally in offensive rebounding percentage (36.9). The Blue Devils are also an elite rebounding team, currently ranking third in the ACC in total rebounds per game (39.6) and leading the conference in opponent rebounds per game (29.7).

Both with elite length, Duke and Michigan tend to thrive on the glass. The Blue Devils will need to limit the Wolverines' second-chance opportunities, especially when they lead to kick-out threes.

dam — Feb 7, 2026; Chapel Hill, North Carolina, USA; Duke Blue Devils guard Dame Sarr (7) at the free throw line in the first half at Dean E. Smith Center. Mandatory Credit: Bob Donnan-Imagn Images | Bob Donnan-Imagn Images

Force Turnovers

There aren't many ways to critique this Michigan team, but possibly its biggest issue is its turnovers. The Wolverines cough up the third-most turnovers per game (12.2) of any team in the Big 10, while Duke forces an average of 12.9 turnovers per game, the fifth-most in the ACC.

Against Purdue, Michigan tallied 14 turnovers, which led to 22 points for the Boilermakers. If Duke can force those turnovers and turn them into consistent points, that will be a major advantage.

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