Vital Statistics That Could Impact Upcoming Duke‑Virginia Game

Saturday's matchup between the Duke Blue Devils and Virginia Cavaliers is a monumental game, as both teams are vying for the top two spots in the ACC. Those positions represent more than just being the best teams in the conference at the end of the regular season.

Finishing as the one and two seeds in the ACC means playing for a spot in the College Football Playoff and competing for a national championship, which is every program's goal each season.

That is especially the case for these two programs who have yearned for an opportunity of this significance for decades. Neither of these football programs are known for competing for championships at the highest level in the sport.

Nov 8, 2025; East Hartford, Connecticut, USA; Duke Blue Devils head coach Manny Diaz on the field for warm up before the start of the game against the UConn Huskies at Pratt & Whitney Stadium at Rentschler Field. Mandatory Credit: David Butler II-Imagn Images | David Butler II-Imagn Images

With that being said, here are a few statistics that could be foretelling indications of who will end up with the victory and extend their hopes for the ACC Championship game in December.

Penalty Yards

Nov 8, 2025; East Hartford, Connecticut, USA; UConn Huskies quarterback Joe Fagnano (2) throws a pass against the Duke Blue Devils in the first quarter at Pratt & Whitney Stadium at Rentschler Field. Mandatory Credit: David Butler II-Imagn Images | David Butler II-Imagn Images

These two teams are polar opposites in terms of discipline and avoiding costly penalties in key spots of games.

Duke commits 68.8 penalty yards per game, which is 125th in FBS, while Virginia is not a heavily penalized team with 43.8 penalty yards, which ranks 25th in FBS.

Penalties came back to haunt the Blue Devils last week against Connecticut, specifically on the defensive side of the ball. That included a roughing-the-passer penalty that extended a drive for the Huskies and led to a touchdown.

Third-Down Efficiency

Oct 25, 2025; Chapel Hill, North Carolina, USA; Virginia Cavaliers quarterback Chandler Morris (4) hands the ball off to wide receiver Andre Greene Jr. (2) in the third quarter at Kenan Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Bob Donnan-Imagn Images | Bob Donnan-Imagn Images

Offensively, Duke has been unstoppable, but that does not matter if the defense cannot force the opposing offense off the field in quick order.

This week's matchup is a nightmarish one in that regard for the Blue Devils, as the Cavaliers boast a 47.1 third-down conversion rate. Meanwhile, Duke's defense allows its opponents to convert 41.9% of their third-downs.

Duke Blue Devils quarterback Darian Mensah (10) hands the ball off to Duke Blue Devils running back Nate Sheppard (20) Saturday, Nov. 1, 2025, during the NCAA football game against the Clemson Tigers at Memorial Stadium in Clemson, South Carolina. | Alex Martin/Greenville News / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Virginia's success on the ground will be a key factor in this game. If Duke can suppress that production, the Blue Devils have a greater chance of giving the ball back to Darian Mensah and the offense.

Turnover Margin

Nov 8, 2025; East Hartford, Connecticut, USA; UConn Huskies defensive back Devin Pringle (2) reacts after intercepting a pass intended against the Duke Blue Devils in the second quarter at Pratt & Whitney Stadium at Rentschler Field. Mandatory Credit: David Butler II-Imagn Images | David Butler II-Imagn Images

In Week 11, Duke faced Connecticut, which had committed one turnover all season. The Blue Devils' offense was dominant, but ultimately, three turnovers by Mensah were the difference in the game. Duke may have lost by only three points last week, but it also lost the turnover battle three to zero.

The Cavaliers are another team that takes extremely good care of the football, as Chandler Morris is cautious and risk-adverse in the passing game.

In 2025, Virginia is +5 in turnover margin, which is a strong metric in determining the results of games.

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