What to Expect from Duke’s Offense vs. North Carolina

It has been a mixed bag review on the Duke Blue Devils' offense over the last month, as the unit has been dominant, but there have been prolonged stretches in games where it struggles to string together plays consistently.

Some of that has had to do with the defensive struggles, which have forced Duke's offense to be one-dimensional and rely heavily on the passing attack to compete with opponents.

Nov 8, 2025; East Hartford, Connecticut, USA; Duke Blue Devils quarterback Darian Mensah (10) throws a pass against the UConn Huskies in the second half at Pratt & Whitney Stadium at Rentschler Field. Mandatory Credit: David Butler II-Imagn Images | David Butler II-Imagn Images

When an offense is forced to aggressively push the ball down the field, drive after drive, the probability of turnovers and miscues rises exponentially. That has specifically been the issue in the last two games, as Darian Mensah has committed four turnovers during that span.

In Week 13, the Blue Devils face North Carolina, which is not known for its offensive output, but there will still be challenges that could give Duke some issues. With all that being said, what should the expectations be for the Blue Devils' offensive operation?

The Rushing Attack Will be More Involved

Nov 15, 2025; Durham, North Carolina, USA; Duke Blue Devils quarter back Darian Mensah (10) hands the ball to Duke Blue Devils running back Nate Sheppard (20) against the Virginia Cavaliers during the first quarter at Wallace Wade Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Zachary Taft-Imagn Images | Zachary Taft-Imagn Images

With Duke's defense allowing 38.6 points per game over the last three games, there has been an increased level of pressure placed upon the offense's shoulders. Because of that, the Blue Devils have neglected the run game, which has made the offense one-dimensional and predictable.

Nate Sheppard has averaged 13.6 opportunities per game over that stretch, which is not nearly enough for a player of his caliber. Yes, he is a freshman, but he has proven to be one of the best first-year players in the country.

Nov 8, 2025; East Hartford, Connecticut, USA; Duke Blue Devils running back Nate Sheppard (20) scores against the UConn Huskies in the first quarter at Pratt & Whitney Stadium at Rentschler Field. Mandatory Credit: David Butler II-Imagn Images | David Butler II-Imagn Images

The freshman running back had two carries for 30 yards and one touchdown on the first drive against the Huskies. Despite that dominant start, Sheppard saw one more carry for the rest of the first half.

That alone shows that Duke's coaching staff understands how valuable Sheppard is to the offensive production, but the Blue Devils have been taken out of their original plan, with the defense surrendering points on seemingly every drive.

Mensah Will Be Efficient

Nov 8, 2025; East Hartford, Connecticut, USA; Duke Blue Devils quarterback Darian Mensah (10) throws a pass against the UConn Huskies in the first quarter at Pratt & Whitney Stadium at Rentschler Field. Mandatory Credit: David Butler II-Imagn Images | David Butler II-Imagn Images

Because Duke's offense should be able to operate in an orderly and organized fashion, Mensah's efficiency should benefit.

Over the last three games, the sophomore quarterback has attempted 107 passes, completing 67 of those throws. When a quarterback is asked to drop back at that volume, the mistakes are primed to occur with increased opportunities for the defense to force turnovers.

Nov 8, 2025; Chapel Hill, North Carolina, USA; North Carolina Tar Heels quarterback Gio Lopez (7) passes the ball as Stanford Cardinal linebacker Ese Dubre (30) pressures in the third quarter at Kenan Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Bob Donnan-Imagn Images | Bob Donnan-Imagn Images

The Tar Heels' offense has averaged 18.7 points per game this season, which ranks 238th in the nation. That scoring output is the polar opposite of Duke's three previous opponents, which each average more than 30 points per game.

This should be a comfortable game script for the Blue Devils, barring a defensive collapse, which cannot be ruled out at this point.

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