2025 FCS Playoffs Quarterfinal Preview & Prediction: Illinois State at UC Davis

Illinois State will travel to No. 8 seed UC Davis in the quarterfinals of the 2025 FCS Playoffs. Kickoff is scheduled for Saturday (Dec. 13) at 4 p.m. CT on ESPN+. This will be the second meeting between these two programs, with UC Davis defeating Illinois State 42-10 in last year's FCS Playoffs.

The winner will advance to the semifinals, where they will face the winner of No. 4 seed Tarleton State and No. 12 seed Villanova.

2025 Prediction Record: 154-50
2022-24 Record: 382-122

Illinois State at No. 8 UC Davis

Kickoff: 4 p.m. CT Saturday (ESPN+)

Line: UC Davis (-2.5, FanDuel)

Series History: UC Davis leads 1-0

Illinois State shocked the world last weekend with an upset victory over No. 1 seed North Dakota State. The Redbirds not only scored 15 points in the final three minutes, but also overcame five interceptions and converted on a game-winning two-point conversion with only one minute remaining.

UC Davis advanced after a solid 47-26 win over No. 9 seed Rhode Island, dominating the second half after trailing by two points at halftime. These two programs met in the second round last season, with the Aggies winning in blowout fashion, 42-10. These teams appear to be much more evenly matched this season.

Freshman All-American Caden Pinnick has been excellent in his first year as the starter. He's completed nearly 70% of his passes for 2,804 yards, 29 touchdowns, and nine interceptions. His ability to be elusive in the pocket makes him dangerous, turning a potential negative play into a big gain. He's added 411 rushing yards and three scores with his legs. Illinois State was able to box Cole Payton in last week, but can they replicate that against a different type of athlete like Pinnick?

The score doesn't reflect how dominant Illinois State's defense truly was last weekend. The Redbirds generated pressure on over 41% of Payton's dropbacks, which could be a concern for this UC Davis offensive line, which has allowed pressure on 34% of all dropbacks. Garret Steffen and Jake Anderson can wreck a game plan, combining for 17.5 tackles for loss and 9.5 sacks. The Redbirds have averaged 3.17 sacks per game over the last six games, making this a huge matchup to watch.

It's not just the pass rush; Illinois State's defense has been excellent against the run in both playoff games. In only two games, they have held opponents to 83 yards per game and 2.9 yards per carry. Linebacker Tye Niekamp is always around the ball, leading the team with 145 tackles and 13 tackles for loss. UC Davis needs a big game from running back Jordan Fisher, taking some of the pressure off of Pinnick.

The Aggies feature a ton of talent on the outside, led by wide receiver Samuel Gbatu Jr., who has a team-high 64 receptions, 1,070 receiving yards and 11 touchdowns. Stacy Dobbins is a solid No. 2 option, but Zach Jones emerged last week as an intriguing weapon with 58 yards and two scores. Tim Plough also loves to use the tight ends and keep an eye on Ian Simpson, who is a mismatch in the red zone.

On the other side, Illinois State will go as quarterback Tommy Rittenhouse goes. He made some bad decisions last week, throwing five interceptions, which may have overshadowed some outstanding plays he made down the stretch. We haven't really seen a complete performance from Rittenhouse in a few weeks, but the Redbirds continue to find ways to win.

The Redbirds have some outstanding wide receivers, including one of the best in the FCS in Daniel Sobkowicz. He leads the team with 65 receptions for 842 receiving yards and 14 receiving touchdowns. The emergence of Dylan Lord and Luke Mailander has helped Sobkowicz get more 1-on-1 opportunities.

UC Davis might not have a top-ranked defense, but this pass-rush can make a huge impact on Saturday. Harvard transfer Jacob Psyk leads the team with 15.5 tackles for loss and 9.5 sacks. Sam Goligoski has come on strong late, posting 9.5 tackles for loss and 6.5 sacks. The Aggies will need to find a way to generate some pressure and force Rittenhouse into mistakes.

In the secondary, injuries forced the defensive staff to rely on some new names throughout the season. True freshman Drew Coefield has started every game at cornerback, totaling two interceptions and nine pass breakups. Safety Khalani Riddick has made an immediate impact with 67 tackles, one interception, and seven pass breakups.

Illinois State's rushing attack was really the key the past two weeks, rushing for 145 yards or more in each of the two playoff games. Victor Dawson leads the Redbirds with 948 rushing yards, including an outstanding performance against NDSU. The Aggies will need to limit Illinois State's rushing attack, which has been an issue at times this season.

This may have been the hardest game to predict. Even with Illinois State's remarkable win last weekend, I'm going to lean towards UC Davis here. The Aggies are extremely explosive offensively, which will be the difference today. Give me Pinnick and Tim Plough to make enough plays to escape with a close win.

Prediction: UC Davis (38-34)

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