2025 FCS Playoffs Quarterfinal Preview & Prediction: South Dakota at Montana

No. 11 seed South Dakota will travel to No. 3 seed Montana in the quarterfinals of the 2025 FCS Playoffs. Kickoff is scheduled for Saturday (Dec. 13) at 2:30 p.m. CT on ABC. This will be the 21st matchup between these two programs, with Montana leading the all-time series 14-6.

The winner will advance to the semifinals, where they will face the winner of No. 2 seed Montana State and No. 7 seed Stephen F. Austin.

2025 Prediction Record: 154-50
2022-24 Record: 382-122

No. 11 South Dakota at No. 3 Montana

Kickoff: 2:30 p.m. CT Saturday (ABC)

Line: Montana (-7.5, FanDuel)

Series History: Montana leads 14-6

South Dakota looks like a completely different team than what we saw earlier this season. The Coyotes had a slow start, but have won eight of their past nine games, including five straight since the beginning of November. It all culminated in a dominant 47-0 win over No. 6 seed Mercer, which was arguably this team's best performance of the season.

Montana made an immediate statement with a 50-29 victory over South Dakota State last weekend. With NDSU's unexpected exit, the Grizzlies now become one of the favorites to take the trophy home in Nashville. The Griz have also not lost a home playoff game since 2013, making this a massive stage inside Washington-Grizzly Stadium on Saturday.

This may be the best quarterback battle of the weekend. Keali'i Ah Yat is playing some of his best football right now, completing 69.6% of his passes for 3,514 yards, 29 touchdowns, and eight interceptions. Ah Yat's development this season has been remarkable, going from struggling in a two-QB system to becoming a superstar. If Ah Yat can protect the football and get the ball to his playmakers, the Griz are going to be in a good position in this matchup.

South Dakota has a young but very talented secondary that continues to improve each week. RJ Stewart earned Freshman All-American honors after recording three interceptions and five pass breakups. Cornerback Mikey Munn is only a sophomore, but leads the Coyotes with five interceptions and 10 pass breakups. Roman Tillmon and DeJuan Lewis anchor the safety spots but will be tested by an extremely explosive Montana offense.

Everyone questioned who would step up at wide receiver for Montana, but now the Griz may have one of the deepest receiver rooms in the postseason. All eyes should be on Michael Wortham, who is the most versatile athlete at the FCS level. He leads the Griz with 66 catches for 938 receiving yards and 10 touchdowns. Brooks Davis is a rising star, earning Freshman All-American honors with 680 yards and five touchdowns.

The real x-factor will be South Dakota's ability to contain Montana running back Eli Gillman. Gillman has posted a team-high 1,396 rushing yards and 19 touchdowns on 6.5 yards per carry. South Dakota has been better against the run later in the season, but this may be its toughest test. The Griz have topped the 100-yard mark on the ground in 11 consecutive games.

On the other side, South Dakota's path to win is extremely clear. Establish the running game and create opportunities for Aidan Bouman to take deep shots off the play-action. Bouman has been locked in over the past three games, throwing for 802 yards, 11 touchdowns, and only one interception.

The emergence of wide receiver Larenzo Fenner has been a huge part of Bouman's improvement throughout the season. He can take the top off a defense, averaging 22.9 yards per catch with 15 touchdowns, which set a new single-season program record. In the last three games, Fenner is averaging 115 yards per game with seven touchdowns. He's recorded at least one touchdown in five consecutive games.

Montana's secondary has allowed some explosive plays, but the Griz take a boom-or-bust approach. They may allow 263.6 passing yards per game, but they also rank No. 2 nationally with 20 interceptions. Kenzel Lawler and Kyon Loud are two of the most underrated cornerbacks in the country, while Micah Harper does an excellent job at the nickel spot, recording 38 tackles, two interceptions, and six pass breakups.

South Dakota's rushing attack features one of the biggest breakout stars of the season in L.J. Phillips Jr. There was a question of who would step up after Charles Pierre Jr. suffered a season-ending injury, but Phillips has exceeded all expectations at the No. 1 running back. He leads the Coyotes with 1,847 yards and 18 touchdowns. Keep an eye on freshman Carson Fletcher, who has taken on a bigger role late this year, with 461 rushing yards on 5.4 yards per carry.

Outside of Montana State, the Grizzlies have been excellent against the run. They held SDSU to only 61 rushing yards last weekend, holding nine of their past 10 opponents under 150 rushing yards. Linebacker Peyton Wing has been outstanding, posting 62 tackles, 6.5 tackles for loss, 3.5 sacks, and three interceptions. Elijawah Tolbert, Caleb Otlewski, and Solomon Tuliaupupu are other names to watch, all of whom play a big part in the run game, but all can offer upside as a pass rusher.

I've been really torn over this pick all week. I expect both offenses to find success, particularly on the ground behind Gillman and Phillips Jr. This puts the focus squarely on the quarterbacks, which I give the slight edge to Ah Yat over Bouman, mainly due to the sheer amount of weapons around him.

In a high-scoring game, I'm going with the Griz to make enough plays down the stretch to secure the win on Saturday.

Prediction: Montana (38-31)

Follow FCS Football Central on social media for ongoing coverage of FCS football, including on X, Facebook, and YouTube.

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.