Behind The Numbers: 2025 FCS Playoffs Semifinals Preview

It started with 24 teams, but the race for the FCS national championship is down to four teams. It's time for the semifinals, which feature one of the greatest rivalries in college football and two underdog stories that have defied the odds on the other side of the bracket.

Throughout the playoffs, we have compared the most important statistics for each matchup using full-season sample sizes. For these games, we are going to narrow our focus in a way I think will be more helpful for considering how they will play out.

For the Montana State-Montana rematch, we are going to deep-dive into the numbers from the game that happened only a few weeks ago, along with recent postseason performances. For Illinois State-Villanova, we will focus on each team's remarkable playoff run. We also identify the most important x-factor in each matchup.

Illinois State at No. 12 Villanova

We have an outstanding matchup between two teams that have vanquished favorites, winning key road games. Villanova pulled off a comeback win over Tarleton State last weekend, while Illinois State has won three consecutive road games, two of which came against Top 8 seeds. Both rely on a physical style of play that has worn down opponents. Let's take a look at the specific matchups.

When Villanova Has The Ball:

Villanova wants to establish the run behind a veteran offensive line and running backs Ja'briel Mace and Isaiah Ragland. The Wildcats are averaging over five yards per carry in the playoffs for an impressive 188.3 yards per game. Illinois State's rushing defense has been very good, only allowing 3.67 yards per carry and 99 yards per game.

The Redbirds have also done an excellent job at taking away explosive plays on the ground, something Villanova relied on against Harvard and Tarleton State. If the run game struggles, Pat McQuaide and the passing game have answered the bell in key moments. Villanova is only averaging 7.24 yards per attempt for 202 passing yards per game, but McQuaide has six touchdowns to only one interception.

Illinois State is giving up a solid 7.43 yards per attempt in the postseason, but the Redbirds did give up a lot more to UC Davis last weekend. Villanova has really been excellent situationally. The Wildcats have converted on 44% of third-downs and 75% of fourth-down attempts. Illinois State has been blitzing more often in the postseason, disrupting quarterbacks and forcing them into mistakes.

McQuaide has been much worse under pressure this season. Villanova is going to have to keep him clean in the pocket on Saturday. This puts even more pressure on the rushing attack, which will be key to keeping Illinois State's pass rush from turning up the heat on McQuaide.

Villanova running back Ja'briel Mace (4) | Villanova Athletics

When Illinois State Has The Ball:

On the other side of the ball, Illinois State has also found its identity behind the physical rushing game of Victor Dawson. Illinois State has averaged 4.79 yards per carry and 195 rushing yards per game. They have not generated a ton of explosive plays, but have stayed ahead of the chains and extended drives with key first downs. The Villanova rushing defense has been one of the best in the postseason, holding opponents to 3.37 yards per carry and 113 rushing yards per game.

The passing attack has been mostly relegated to dinking and dunking the ball for quarterback Tommy Rittenhouse. They have one of the lowest yards per pass attempt numbers in the postseason at 6.9 yards per attempt. Villanova has held opponents to 7.47 YPA, averaging only 159.3 passing yards per game.

Part of the key to Villanova's success has been generating pressure on opposing quarterbacks. The Wildcats will have to find a way to do this against one of the best pass-blocking offensive lines in the country, anchored by All-Americans Jake Pope and Landon Woodard.

X-Factors:

In my opinion, this game comes down to which team can stay on schedule and ahead of the chains. Illinois State wants to avoid third-and-long scenarios and some of the turnover issues that Rittenhouse has had at times. Villanova doesn't have the downfield passing game to consistently convert in those third-and-long situations.

Another x-factor will be how effective Villanova's defense has been in key situations. The Wildcats have held opponents to 28% on third-down attempts, while also making several key red zone stops in all three postseason games. The best example was the forced fumble on Lehigh's final possession, sealing the win for the Wildcats.

For Illinois State, the x-factor is always All-American wide receiver Daniel Sobkowicz. He's easily the most talented player on the field and may be able to break a few explosive plays against a stout Villanova defense. All the numbers from this playoff run suggest we should expect a low-scoring, low-possession game that may be decided by one key play late.

Illinois State wide receiver Daniel Sobkowicz (2) | Illinois State Athletics

No. 3 Montana at No. 2 Montana State

Montana State won the first matchup this season, 31-28, in Missoula. All of the statistics were fairly even, with the Grizzlies averaging 6.1 yards per play on 60 plays, and the Bobcats ran 62 plays at 6.7 yards per play. Caden Dowler's key pick-six changed the momentum of the game, helping secure the win. Both teams missed a field goal and only punted twice. Montana finished with a 45.9% success rate, compared to Montana State's 50.8%. Let's take a closer look at both sides of the ball.

When Montana State Has The Ball:

In the first matchup, Montana State had eight drives, scoring three touchdowns and attempting two field goals. While the Bobcats did not produce many explosive plays on the ground, they still found plenty of success with the run game. Excluding sacks, Montana State rushed for 268 yards on 7.1 yards per carry. The Bobcats had an elite success rate of over 54% on rushing attempts.

Montana needs to find an answer to this problem if the Griz are going to go into Bozeman and get a win. They have been much better over the past two weeks, holding SDSU to a 45% success rate on rushing attempts and South Dakota to an incredible 33% success rate last weekend. Montana is going to need its rushing defense to be much better in this game.

The one major difference between Montana State's rushing attack and South Dakota or SDSU is the presence of Justin Lamson. Aidan Bouman is not a threat with his legs, while Chase Mason was limited due to injuries and was hardly used in the rushing game. In the last game, Lamson rushed for over 100 yards, excluding sacks, which extended multiple key drives for Montana State.

One of the more interesting stats from the first game came from Montana State's passing attack. Justin Lamson had 30 dropbacks, but only 19 passing attempts. Clearly, this was a result of Montana's ability to apply pressure on Lamson, as the Griz generated pressure on 30% of his dropbacks.

Montana was extremely aggressive in the last game, blitzing on 46.7% of Lamson's dropbacks. While Montana was able to get home with four sacks, it was the other seven pressures that got them in trouble. Lamson scrambled seven times for 59 yards, which included some key yards in huge moments. The Griz have to keep Lamson in the pocket and may need to adjust some of their blitz patterns to account for this.

Cornerback Kyon Loud is back after missing the first game with an injury. It will be interesting to see his impact; however, Montana State does not often attack defenses on the outside in the passing game. In the first game, the Bobcats targeted Montana's cornerbacks only four times, choosing to attack linebackers and slot defenders in the flat and across the middle instead.

In fact, this was evident again on Friday night, when Montana State only targeted Stephen F. Austin's cornerbacks three times. The Bobcats found plenty of success targeting linebackers and safeties.

Montana Grizzlies running back Eli Gillman (10) | Michael Thomas Shroyer-Imagn Images

When Montana Has The Ball:

Montana also had eight offensive drives in the first game, scoring four touchdowns with one field goal attempt, but had a costly pick-six in the second half. It should be noted that both of Montana's punts came on one of its first three drives. After that, Montana moved the ball effectively every drive outside of the interception.

It really started with the rushing attack, which finished with an elite 50% success rate. The Griz were able to generate an explosive play with Eli Gillman's 52-yard touchdown, but even after that, he averaged 5.7 yards per carry. I expect this to be the backbone of Montana's offense once again.

The main issue is that the passing game did not operate at the same elite level it has for most of the season. Of course, much of this can be attributed to Montana State's secondary, which has been one of the best in the country. The Bobcats rank No. 4 nationally in yards per attempt allowed, holding opponents to 5.70 yards per attempt.

In the first game, Montana State played very conservatively in coverage, taking away the big play. The Bobcats only blitzed on 7% of Ah Yat's dropbacks and pressured him on 23.7% of his dropbacks with two sacks. Ah Yat struggled to find any windows downfield, creating problems for Montana's passing offense. He only attempted two passes that went 10 or more yards, none of them over the middle of the field. Montana State's defense forced Ah Yat to take a ton of checkdowns.

Interestingly, Stephen F. Austin quarterback Sam Vidlak attempted 15 passes 10 or more yards downfield last week, including 11 passes over the middle. He found plenty of success, completing six of those passes over the middle for 121 yards.

Against SDSU, Ah Yat attempted 10 passes that traveled over 10 yards for 168 yards and three touchdowns, while generating 11 passes for 169 yards and two touchdowns over the middle against South Dakota. Getting Michael Wotham opportunities in open space will be key, which didn't happen in the first matchup. In the last game, Wortham only recorded one catch for three yards against the Bobcats.

X-Factors:

Like any big game, special teams, 3rd- and 4th-down performance, and red-zone execution will have a huge impact this weekend. Both offenses were ruthlessly effective on 3rd and 4th down and in the red zone in the first game. If either defense can swing this factor, it could decide the game.

A big part of this will be tackling; both teams missed 17 tackles in the first game. More specifically, I think the pressure in this game is on the Montana defense. I have faith that with another look at them, the Montana offense will find a way to get the deep passing game, along with Michael Wortham, going. The Montana defense needs to find a way to limit the run and keep Justin Lamson in the pocket. Whichever team wins this matchup will have a strong chance of winning the game.

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