Behind The Numbers: Week 5 FCS Football Review
The 2023 FCS football season is in full swing as Week 5 has come to a close. Each week we will go behind the numbers on some of the biggest games across the FCS landscape.
We take a look behind the numbers from this weekend’s biggest Week 5 FCS football action below.
South Dakota 24, No. 2 North Dakota State 19
How Did South Dakota win?
South Dakota traveled to the Fargodome Saturday afternoon and left with one of the biggest wins of the 2023 season. This game was no fluke, South Dakota led the Bison from start to finish. South Dakota’s best shot at winning this game was a low possession, no mistake, high-efficiency performance and they executed that exact gameplan to near perfection. If you take out the two “possessions” at the end of the half, this game had 11 total possessions and only 103 total plays. South Dakota limited opportunities for the Bison and did so by giving North Dakota State’s offense everything underneath and limiting explosive plays. The Bison offense scored on four of its six possessions but those points came on long drives of 16, 12, 16, and 12 plays respectively. Three of those drives took over seven minutes of game time each. South Dakota forced the Bison to settle for field goals on both 16-play drives, which caused the Bison offense to work against itself with the new clock rules.
The Bison relied heavily on explosive running plays over the first four weeks of the season, but North Dakota State did not have a run over 15 yards on Saturday. The Coyote defense was very solid in run fits and they did not miss many tackles. The defense was able to keep two safeties over the top and keep any receivers from finding any success deep. South Dakota allowed the Bison to rack up offensive yards, but as the field got shorter the North Dakota State offense could not execute in the red zone to make South Dakota pay.
The Coyote defense may have been spectacular, but would not have had the opportunity without the efficient performance of the offense. The Bison out-gained the Coyotes for the game, but that stat is deceiving. The Coyotes only ran 38 plays the entire game, but averaged 7.1 yards per play compared to North Dakota State’s 5.4 yards per game. The Coyotes utilized the speed of wide receiver Carter Bell (124 receiving yards; 2 TDs) for explosive plays and running backs Nate Thomas and Travis Theis kept the chains moving on the ground. South Dakota only had five real possessions during the game and scored on four of them. The efficient offensive play, the solid performance from the defense, plus the clutch interception by Dennis Shorter allowed the Coyotes to leave Fargo with a rare win.
What’s next for North Dakota State?
All the off-season questions about this Bison team have come roaring back after an impressive start to the season. People should not be quick to write this team off, the Bison are still one of the best teams in the nation and could easily finish the season as a top-five team. However, a closer look at the first four games of the season does create some interesting questions. While the Bison have played solid defensively, the unit is allowing almost 6.0 yards per play. This would put North Dakota closer to a top-50 defense in the nation as opposed to a top-10 defense. The defensive line is solid as a unit but lacks a true superstar who can make the plays in the crucial moments. The Bison are averaging less than two sacks per game and less than five tackles for loss per game, which both rank outside the top 50 in the nation.
Offensively, if the Bison cannot consistently create explosive plays, do they have any true deep threats on the outside at wide receiver? If other teams emulate South Dakota’s strategy with the bend-but-not-break mentality, can Cam Miller make the defense pay with explosive throws down the field? Cam Miller has shown the ability to make intermediate throws to the sideline and deep shots off of play action, but now that a “blueprint” is out on this team, will other teams be able to exploit it the same way? North Dakota State will have the first opportunity for a bounce-back win this Saturday at Missouri State.
What’s next for South Dakota?
The Coyotes are soaring after Saturday’s upset win and will try to turn this momentum into success that lasts the rest of the season. South Dakota showed the potential of multiple weapons on offense and defense that play tough, fundamental football. The question is whether those weapons are consistent enough to make some noise in the Missouri Valley and make a run to the playoffs. The Coyotes have only made one appearance in the FCS playoffs in the last five seasons and have a great opportunity to do it again after the win in Fargo.
South Dakota has one of the top run defenses in the nation right now only giving up 3.6 yards per carry led by linebacker Brock Mogensen (31 total tackles). Quarterback Aidan Bouman has been efficient all year and will have a tall task ahead of him to keep pace with the four stellar quarterbacks they have left on the schedule (Davidson, Gronowski, Baker, and Schuster). The Coyotes need to continue to build on this success against Murray State.
Elon 14, No. 5 William and Mary 6
How did Elon win?
Elon picked up back-to-back wins over William & Mary with an impressive performance this weekend. Elon’s defense made several key stops deep in the red zone and kept the Tribe out of the end zone. The Tribe rushing attack still totaled over 300 rushing yards and 5.8 yards per carry without All-American Bronson Yoder. The Phoenix exposed the Tribe’s inability to throw the ball and made crucial stops on five drives inside the 30-yard line. William & Mary only scored six points on those five drives deep into Elon territory.
The Elon offense faced one of the best defenses in the nation and made clutch plays in the fourth quarter. Quarterback Matthew Downing scored two fourth-quarter touchdowns while running back Jalen Hampton led the offense with 74 rushing yards. Jaidyn Denis changed the game with a huge third-quarter interception and set up Elon with a short field and their first touchdown of the game. Quarterback Matthew Downing made a crucial throw on a late third down as he found Chandler Brayboy for a 76-yard bomb and set the offense up for the second touchdown. Elon struggled to establish offensive consistency early in the game against the stifling Tribe defense but Downing and Brayboy made some outstanding individual plays that changed the game.
What’s next for William & Mary?
William & Mary will have to answer some important questions over the next few weeks of the season. Many people will point to the absence of running back Bronson Yoder, and while he is a great player, that is not why William & Mary lost Saturday’s game. The expectations for this Tribe offense were higher as many expected quarterback Darius Wilson and the passing game would improve from a year ago. Wilson has averaged only 133 yards per game and completed 52% of his passes this season. The Tribe needs more production to match the elite defense and expectations to win the CAA. Teams are allowing William & Mary to drive the field but the Tribe offense has only scored 10 touchdowns on 18 redzone attempts. William & Mary has plenty of defensive talent, led by All-Americans Nate Lynn and John Pius, but it might not matter if this team cannot be more efficient offensively. The Tribe faces Virginia before preparing for a huge CAA matchup with Towson in two weeks.
What’s next for Elon?
Elon leads the CAA with a 3-0 conference record after consecutive wins over North Carolina A&T, Campbell, and William & Mary. Last season the Phoenix started conference play with two ranked wins and led the conference before losing back-to-back conference games. Elon will want to avoid a similar letdown and still have tough road games against Delaware and Villanova left on the schedule. If Elon can win just one of those games and avoid a slip-up elsewhere, this team will feel great about its chances to win the CAA and make the FCS playoff again. If Downing can continue to develop and make throws like he made at the end of last Saturday’s game, Elon has a great shot to reach all its goals for this season. Elon has a big out-of-conference matchup with No. 14 North Carolina Central and will look to boost its resume in a must-watch matchup against All-American quarterback Davius Richard and the Eagles.
