Behind The Numbers: Week 2 FCS Football Review

Each week, we will highlight a couple of marquee national matchups, and then use success rate to get a deeper look than what the final score may tell you about what happened in the game. We will take a look at the most dominant teams of the week, which teams outplayed their opponent but made too many mistakes to get a win on the field, and which teams got outplayed despite escaping with a win.

Success rate takes out a lot of the underlying factors of a game and strictly tells you how well a team played down-to-down. While outliers can swing an individual game, success rate can be a better indicator of what future performance will be. A play is "successful" if 50% of the yards needed are gained on first down, 70% are gained on second down, and 100% are gained on third or fourth down.

The Average Success Rate for a college football program is about 40%, while closer to 50% is considered excellent, and anything under 30% is deemed poor.

We take a look behind the numbers from this weekend's FCS action in Week 2. Our special edition of 'Behind The Numbers' for the South Dakota State-Montana State matchup is linked below.

Behind The Numbers: No. 2 South Dakota State vs No. 3 Montana State

Who Were The Most Dominant Teams In Week 2?

In this section, we will highlight the teams that were the most dominant in success rate margin. This will highlight which teams truly dominated, even if the final score hides what really happened. Games against non-Division I opponents were excluded.

North Dakota State (Net SR: 52.4%)
Youngstown State (Net SR: 49.7%)
Elon (Net SR: 45%)
Mercyhurst (Net SR: 40.8%)
Tarleton State (Net SR: 25.7%)
Lehigh (Net SR: 21.7%)
Tennessee Tech (Net SR: 19.5%)
Central Arkansas (Net SR: 18.5%)

North Dakota State had the most dominant performance in the nation for the second straight week. The Bison were once again led by a dominant defense that only allowed 2.8 yards per play and four first downs, including zero first downs allowed in the first half. The offense was not very explosive, with only one run and three passes over 20 yards, but the Bison were a model of consistency with the weekend's highest net success rate.

Youngstown State responded to a lackluster second half in Week 1 with an absolute beatdown in Week 2. Explosive plays were the name of the game as YSU ran for 424 yards on 11.8 yards per carry. Quarterback Beau Brungard finished with an incredible 264 rushing yards on 26.4 yards per carry. The offense generated seven runs over 15 yards. The defense also stifled Robert Morris to the tune of 1.5 yards per carry.

Elon crushed Davidson in a 55-7 blowout win, bouncing back from a Week 1 loss to Duke. Redshirt freshman quarterback Landen Clark is one to watch for the Phoenix. He had an adjusted completion percentage of 66.7%, while his average depth of target was 15.6 yards. He led all FCS quarterbacks with four big-time throws on Saturday.

Mercyhurst may be a team to watch in the NEC race this season, despite not being eligible for the FCS Playoffs until 2027. The Lakers throttled New Haven in a 48-14 blowout, scoring a touchdown on seven of their first eight drives. Adam Urena is one of the highest-graded quarterbacks in the country. He completed 22-of-28 passes for 347 yards and two touchdowns.

Central Arkansas and Tarleton State both dominated their opponents ahead of an important UAC matchup in Week 3. The Texans led the way with their defense holding Mississippi Valley State to 1.5 yards per carry and amassed nine tackles for loss. The Bears were led by standout quarterback Luther Richesson, who accounted for 365 yards of total offense and four touchdowns. The Bears finished with over 600 total yards, while holding Arkansas-Pine Bluff to less than 275 total yards.

Lehigh continued to find success on the ground, gaining over 280 yards and 164 yards after contact against Sacred Heart. They had 12 runs go for 10 or more yards, while seven of those went for at least 15 yards. Luke Yoder and Jaden Green both had four explosive runs, while quarterback Hayden Johnson added another three explosive plays with his legs.

In a game that was supposed to be very competitive, Tennessee Tech blew Chattanooga off the field. On Chattanooga's first seven drives, the furthest the Mocs got was 14 yards. The Mocs only managed 36 rushing yards, and Camden Orth never had time to throw. Tennessee Tech generated 32 pressures on 51 dropbacks. On offense, the Golden Eagles had one of the best performances of the weekend, averaging 8.6 yards per play.

Which Games Conflicted With Success Rate?

Each week, this section will highlight teams that won the success rate battle but still lost the game. They outperformed their opponent down-to-down, but lost because of turnovers, penalties, special teams, or explosive plays.

Delaware State 37, UAlbany 32 (UAlbany 48.1%, DSU 37.3%)
San Diego 30, Southern Utah 27 (SUU 47.5%, USD 39.7%)
New Mexico 32, Idaho State 22 (ISU 43.3%, UNM 37.5%)
Towson 27, Morgan State 22 (MSU 43.9%, Towson 41.2%)
New Hampshire 19, Holy Cross 16 (HC 40.4%, UNH 36.3%)
Bucknell 34, Marist 23 (Marist 46.3%, Bucknell 39.6%)

Fun Fact: North Alabama-SEMO, William & Mary-Maine, Furman-Presbyterian, and Eastern Kentucky-Houston Christian all finished within 0.2% success rate this weekend.

Delaware State got a huge non-conference win against UAlbany in a game with lightning delays. Despite throwing the ball very well, UAlbany lost this game due to its inability to contain quarterback Kaiden Bennett. Bennett had over 100 yards rushing on 7.9 yards per carry and three rushing touchdowns, all of which were runs of 19 yards or more.

After a huge Week 1 win, Southern Utah came crashing down in an overtime loss to San Diego. Despite largely outplaying the Toreros, the Thunderbirds made too many mistakes with penalties, turnovers, and a missed field goal. San Diego was great on third down, going 7-for-15, and holding Southern Utah to only 4-of-12 on those opportunities. Running back Matt Colombo had an outstanding performance with 34 carries for 202 yards and a touchdown.

Idaho State had another disappointing FBS loss, and this time it came after outplaying New Mexico down-to-down. The loss can be largely attributed to red zone efficiency, in which the Bengals threw an interception and were held to two field goals despite being inside the 16-yard line. Once again, the lesson here is that not being able to score touchdowns in the red zone almost always equals a losing team.

Morgan State was consistently better moving the ball on Saturday and was much more explosive, averaging 6.3 yards per play compared to 4.9 yards per play for Towson. The Bears lost the game because of the turnover battle. Morgan State's three turnovers were extremely costly, including two fumbles inside Towson's 20-yard line. The Bears also missed a 21-yard field goal in the third quarter. It's another missed opportunity to end Towson's eight-game winning streak in The Battle for Greater Baltimore.

New Hampshire won its second game in a row after losing the success rate battle, escaping with a 19-16 win over Holy Cross. The Wildcats took advantage of a low-scoring game with explosive receptions of 53, 31, and 21 yards. Holy Cross also missed a key field goal, while turning it over on downs on New Hampshire's five-yard line.

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