Behind The Numbers: 2025 FCS Playoffs First-Round Preview

The 2025 FCS Playoffs are finally here.

Earlier this week, we released our Behind The Numbers breakdown of all 24 teams in the field, including each team's strengths and weaknesses. You can find descriptions of all the relevant stats used there as well.

It's time to shift our focus to all the first-round games set to take place on Saturday. We took all the data from our Behind the Numbers preview to create direct head-to-head comparisons for every first-round matchup. All statistical rankings are listed 1-24, giving you an idea of where each team ranks in comparison to the rest of the postseason teams.

Below we go behind the numbers of all the first-round matchups of the 2025 FCS Playoffs.

Central Connecticut State at No. 9 Rhode Island

When CCSU Has The Ball:

CCSU	Rhode Island
Total Offense (5.7 YPP, 19th)	Total Defense (4.7 YPP, 7th)
Success Rate (43.1%, 20th)	Def. Success Rate (38.6%, 14th)
Rushing Offense (4.3 YPC, 20th)	Rushing Defense (3.69 YPC, 10th)
Passing Offense (7.0 YPA, 21st)	Passing Defense (5.9 YPA, 3rd)
Turnover Rate (1.7%, 15th)	Turnovers Forced (2%, 18th)
RZ TD% (56.3%, 22nd)	RZ TD% Allowed (53.7%, 9th)
Pressure Allowed (23.1%, 7th)	Pressure Rate (42.8%, 8th)
TFL Allowed (7.3%, 11th)	TFL Rate (8.61%, 14th)

When Rhode Island Has The Ball:

Rhode Island	CCSU
Total Offense (6.7 YPP, 10th)	Total Defense (5.7 YPP, 19th)
Success Rate (47.8%, 7th)	Def. Success Rate (40.6%, 19th)
Rushing Offense (4.3 YPC, 19th)	Rushing Defense (4.5 YPC, 22nd)
Passing Offense (9.2 YPA, 3rd)	Passing Defense (6.8 YPA, 15th)
Turnover Rate (2.5%, 24th)	Turnovers Forced (1.8%, 22nd)
RZ TD% (65.9%, 13th)	RZ TD% Allowed (51.2%, 5th)
Pressure Allowed (26%, 11th)	Pressure Rate (38.6%, 13th)
TFL Allowed (6.9%, 10th)	TFL Rate (10.3%, 9th)

We get a rematch of a first-round matchup from last season. Rhode Island escaped with a win, but there's reason to believe that this year could be much more comfortable. Quarterback Devin Farrell did not play in last year's game due to injury, and is the key to a much-improved Rhode Island offense. Rhode Island should find plenty of success through the air on Saturday.

CCSU doesn't force turnovers at an elite level like last season, which could be an issue. The Blue Devils do not appear to have many advantages on either side of the ball. The Rams feature a stingy defense, which ranks 7th in yards per play allowed among playoff teams.

The Pick: Rhode Island

Lamar at No. 10 Abilene Christian

When Lamar Has The Ball:

Lamar	Abilene Christian
Total Offense (4.8 YPP, 24th)	Total Defense (5.4 YPP, 16th)
Success Rate (37.9%, 24th)	Def. Success Rate (39.8%, 17th)
Rushing Offense (3.8 YPC, 23rd)	Rushing Defense (3.8 YPC, 14th)
Passing Offense (6.4 YPA, 24th)	Passing Defense (7.0 YPA, 17th)
Turnover Rate (2.3%, 23rd)	Turnovers Forced (2.9%, 4th)
RZ TD% (61.1%, 18th)	RZ TD% Allowed (70.3%, 21st)
Pressure Allowed (35.3%, 22nd)	Pressure Rate (24.5%, 24th)
TFL Allowed (9.4%, 21st)	TFL Rate (7.1%, 21st)

When Abilene Christian Has The Ball:

Abilene Christian	Lamar
Total Offense (5.9 YPP, 16th)	Total Defense (4.9 YPP, 11th)
Success Rate (45.2%, 17th)	Def. Success Rate (36.8%, 10th)
Rushing Offense (4.6 YPC, 16th)	Rushing Defense (3.9 YPC, 15th)
Passing Offense (7.5 YPA, 18th)	Passing Defense (6.1 YPA, 5th)
Turnover Rate (1.7%, 14th)	Turnovers Forced (2.3%, 10th)
RZ TD% (59.6%, 20th)	RZ TD% Allowed (55%, 12th)
Pressure Allowed (29.4%, 18th)	Pressure Rate (38.8%, 12th)
TFL Allowed (8.1%, 19th)	TFL Rate (10.8%, 6th)

Lamar was carried into the postseason by an elite defense, and the Cardinals will have to hope that unit is enough to carry them through this first-round game. The Cardinals have the worst offense in the field statistically. They now face a defense that has been solid in big games and excels at forcing turnovers.

On the other side, Abilene Christian will turn to a balanced attack to try and keep Lamar on its toes. Lamar has been particularly good against the pass, so look for the Wildcats to try and establish their rushing attack. This could be one of the lower-scoring games of the first round.

The Pick: Abilene Christian

Drake at No. 11 South Dakota

When Drake Has The Ball:

Drake	South Dakota
Total Offense (5.93 YPP, 14th)	Total Defense (5.7 YPP, 20th)
Success Rate (43.6%, 19th)	Def. Success Rate (42.7%, 21st)
Rushing Offense (4.88 YPC, 10th)	Rushing Defense (4.3 YPC, 19th)
Passing Offense (8.0 YPA, 13th)	Passing Defense (7.5 YPA, 22nd)
Turnover Rate (1.8%, 17th)	Turnovers Forced (1.5%, 24th)
RZ TD% (61.1%, 18th)	RZ TD% Allowed (68.2%, 20th)
Pressure Allowed (37.1%, 24th)	Pressure Rate (29.3%, 23rd)
TFL Allowed (10.5%, 23rd)	TFL Rate (5.42%, 24th)

When South Dakota Has The Ball:

South Dakota	Drake
Total Offense (5.92 YPP, 15th)	Total Defense (5.0 YPP, 12th)
Success Rate (46.6%, 15th)	Def. Success Rate (40.4%, 18th)
Rushing Offense (4.93 YPC, 8th)	Rushing Defense (3.7 YPC, 10th)
Passing Offense (7.5 YPA, 16th)	Passing Defense (6.7 YPA, 14th)
Turnover Rate (1.2%, 8th)	Turnovers Forced (2.2%, 12th)
RZ TD% (57.5%, 21st)	RZ TD% Allowed (46.7%, 3rd)
Pressure Allowed (35.6%, 23rd)	Pressure Rate (33.9%, 18th)
TFL Allowed (6.5%, 7th)	TFL Rate (8.7%, 12th)

South Dakota defeated Drake 42-21 earlier this season, but the Coyotes were leading 42-7 before two late scores by the Bulldogs. While some of the statistics above may suggest Drake could find success, it's important to note that the level of competition these two teams have faced is not even close.

In the first meeting, South Dakota ran for 282 yards on 8.1 yards per carry, which created opportunities for Aidan Bouman to connect on deep shots. For the Bulldogs to have any chance, they will need to slow down the run game and avoid costly turnovers, both of which were issues in the first game.

The Pick: South Dakota

Harvard at No. 12 Villanova

When Harvard Has The Ball:

Harvard	Villanova
Total Offense (6.6 YPP, 11th)	Total Defense (5.6 YPP, 18th)
Success Rate (50.2%, 4th)	Def. Success Rate (38.1%, 13th)
Rushing Offense (4.7 YPC, 15th)	Rushing Defense (4.0 YPC, 17th)
Passing Offense (8.7 YPA, 8th)	Passing Defense (7.3 YPA, 21st)
Turnover Rate (1.4%, 9th)	Turnovers Forced (1.6%, 23rd)
RZ TD% (65.3%, 14th)	RZ TD% Allowed (62.9%, 17th)
Pressure Allowed (20.9%, 4th)	Pressure Rate (36.8%, 15th)
TFL Allowed (4.2%, 1st)	TFL Rate (7.7%, 20th)

When Villanova Has The Ball:

Villanova	Harvard
Total Offense (6.2 YPP, 12th)	Total Defense (4.7 YPP, 6th)
Success Rate (47.5%, 9th)	Def. Success Rate (34.7%, 8th)
Rushing Offense (4.8 YPC, 13th)	Rushing Defense (3.2 YPC, 8th)
Passing Offense (8.0 YPA, 14th)	Passing Defense (6.1 YPA, 6th)
Turnover Rate (0.7%, 1st)	Turnovers Forced (2.5%, 8th)
RZ TD% (62.5%, 16th)	RZ TD% Allowed (56.7%, 15th)
Pressure Allowed (21.8%, 5th)	Pressure Rate (36.5%, 16th)
TFL Allowed (10.6%, 24th)	TFL Rate (6.4%, 23rd)

This game is one of the more fascinating first-round matchups we have. This could turn out to be a higher-scoring game than people expect. The weakness of Villanova's defense has been its secondary, which is tied to its inability to generate negative plays while allowing explosive plays. Jaden Craig and the Harvard offense could certainly take advantage of that. Harvard hardly ever turns the ball over or puts pressure, while Villanova's defense doesn't really do either.

On the other side, this is likely the best offense Harvard has played outside of maybe Penn. The Crimson defense has struggled a lot the past two weeks, giving up over 40 points in both games. Villanova needs to find success on the ground with Ja'briel Mace and Isaiah Ragland in order to set up Pat McQuaide and the passing attack. Neither team has been good in the red zone on either side of the ball. That could be the deciding factor in this matchup.

The Pick: Harvard

North Dakota at No. 13 Tennessee Tech

When North Dakota Has The Ball:

North Dakota	Tennessee Tech
Total Offense (5.7 YPP, 18th)	Total Defense (4.3 YPP, 3rd)
Success Rate (46.7%, 12th)	Def. Success Rate (34.4%, 7th)
Rushing Offense (4.9 YPC, 12th)	Rushing Defense (2.3 YPC, 1st)
Passing Offense (6.8 YPA, 23rd)	Passing Defense (6.2 YPA, 7th)
Turnover Rate (1.9%, 21st)	Turnovers Forced (1.9%, 20th)
RZ TD% (68.4%, 10th)	RZ TD% Allowed (51.6%, 6th)
Pressure Allowed (26.7%, 13th)	Pressure Rate (45.9%, 3rd)
TFL Allowed (7.5%, 13th)	TFL Rate (12.5%, 3rd)

When Tennessee Tech Has The Ball:

Tennessee Tech	North Dakota
Total Offense (6.9 YPP, 5th)	Total Defense (4.6 YPP, 5th)
Success Rate (45.6%, 16th)	Def. Success Rate (38.7%, 15th)
Rushing Offense (5.9 YPC, 1st)	Rushing Defense (3.0 YPC, 5th)
Passing Offense (8.1 YPA, 12th)	Passing Defense (6.5 YPA, 10th)
Turnover Rate (1.6%, 13th)	Turnovers Forced (2.6%, 7th)
RZ TD% (74%, 6th)	RZ TD% Allowed (54.8%, 10th)
Pressure Allowed (26%, 11th)	Pressure Rate (39.9%, 11th)
TFL Allowed (7.6%, 14th)	TFL Rate (9.7%, 10th)

This is a matchup between two of the best defenses in the entire country. Both teams want to lean on the run game offensively, but both defenses have been elite at stopping the run. Tennessee Tech is holding teams to 2.3 yards per carry, while North Dakota has only allowed 3.0 yards per carry.

This game likely comes down to which quarterback can limit turnovers while making the big throws necessary to win. Kekoa Visperas has been the more efficient and effective quarterback, but Jerry Kaminski has competed against better defenses all season. Wide receiver Tre Holloway and BJ Fleming are two players to watch on Saturday.

The Pick: North Dakota

New Hampshire at No. 14 South Dakota State

When New Hampshire Has The Ball:

New Hampshire	SDSU
Total Offense (5.6 YPP, 21st)	Total Defense (5.1 YPP, 13th)
Success Rate (41.3%, 23rd)	Def. Success Rate (37.8%, 12th)
Rushing Offense (3.9 YPC, 22nd)	Rushing Defense (3.7 YPC, 9th)
Passing Offense (7.6 YPA, 16th)	Passing Defense (6.7 YPA, 13th)
Turnover Rate (1.0%, 5th)	Turnovers Forced (3.0%, 3rd)
RZ TD% (47.8%, 24th)	RZ TD% Allowed (54.8%, 10th)
Pressure Allowed (27.2%, 15th)	Pressure Rate (44.1%, 6th)
TFL Allowed (7.8%, 15th)	TFL Rate (9.0%, 11th)

When South Dakota State Has The Ball:

SDSU	New Hampshire
Total Offense (5.2 YPP, 23rd)	Total Defense (5.7 YPP, 21st)
Success Rate (43.1%, 20th)	Def. Success Rate (40.6%, 19th)
Rushing Offense (3.7 YPC, 24th)	Rushing Defense (4.9 YPC, 23rd)
Passing Offense (7.4 YPA, 19th)	Passing Defense (6.9 YPA, 16th)
Turnover Rate (1.9%, 20th)	Turnovers Forced (2%, 18th)
RZ TD% (61.5%, 17th)	RZ TD% Allowed (71%, 22nd)
Pressure Allowed (25.9%, 9th)	Pressure Rate (30.2%, 21st)
TFL Allowed (8.4%, 20th)	TFL Rate (8.1%, 17th)

A big part of the build-up of this game will be discussions about the availability of South Dakota State quarterback Chase Mason, who appears to be nearing a return. It may not matter much this week; however, New Hampshire faces an uphill battle in this game regardless of who starts at quarterback. If the Wildcats are going to pull off an upset, they need a big game from quarterback Matt Vezza, along with wide receivers Caleb Burke and Chase Wilson.

New Hampshire ranks in the bottom 3 of both offense and defense for playoff teams. It's hard to see the Wildcats having much success against a solid South Dakota State defense. What is also concerning is that New Hampshire is giving up nearly five yards per carry. If the Jacks commit to the run game, they could find plenty of success in an area that looked much improved last weekend.

The Pick: South Dakota State

Yale at No. 15 Youngstown State

When Yale Has The Ball:

Yale	Youngstown State
Total Offense (5.8 YPP, 17th)	Total Defense (6.2 YPP, 24th)
Success Rate (42.7%, 22nd)	Def. Success Rate (42.8%, 22nd)
Rushing Offense (4.3 YPC, 18th)	Rushing Defense (4.3 YPC, 20th)
Passing Offense (8.2 YPA, 10th)	Passing Defense (8.0 YPA, 23rd)
Turnover Rate (1.8%, 19th)	Turnovers Forced (2.1%, 14th)
RZ TD% (55%, 23rd)	RZ TD% Allowed (79.1%, 24th)
Pressure Allowed (27%, 14th)	Pressure Rate (35.2%, 17th)
TFL Allowed (4.6%, 2nd)	TFL Rate (7.8%, 19th)

When Youngstown State Has The Ball:

Youngstown State	Yale
Total Offense (6.8 YPP, 6th)	Total Defense (4.8 YPP, 8th)
Success Rate (49.5%, 5th)	Def. Success Rate (36.2%, 9th)
Rushing Offense (5.8 YPC, 3rd)	Rushing Defense (3.1 YPC, 7th)
Passing Offense (7.9 YPA, 15th)	Passing Defense (6.5 YPA, 9th)
Turnover Rate (0.9%, 3rd)	Turnovers Forced (2.0%, 16th)
RZ TD% (74.1%, 4th)	RZ TD% Allowed (37.9%, 1st)
Pressure Allowed (30.4%, 19th)	Pressure Rate (42.9%, 7th)
TFL Allowed (6.0%, 5th)	TFL Rate (8.3%, 15th)

This is another fun first-round matchup that features an interesting clash of styles. Youngstown State's elite offense, with quarterback Beau Brungard, clashes with Yale's stout defense.

The Bulldogs don't have a glaring weakness defensively, performing well in most areas except forcing turnovers. They are elite at getting after the quarterback, averaging over 4 sacks per game in conference play. Ezekiel Larry and Abu Kamara are elite players who will be important in limiting Brungard's playmaking.

Yale also has the best red zone defense in the country. Their chance to win this game may come down to limiting YSU's success in the red zone, because I don't see them stopping the Penguins from moving the ball. Youngstown State has been elite down-to-down, creating explosive plays offensively.

On the other side of the ball, neither team has been excellent. Youngstown State is much improved defensively this year, but when you compare them to elite teams, they still rate very poorly. Yale will want to run the ball with Joshua Pitsenberger. If they succeed, they'll have a chance to hold onto the ball and make this a low-possession game, limiting Brungard's opportunities.

While Yale quarterback Dante Reno and wide receiver Nico Brown are also improving each week, this offense doesn't want to face consistent 3rd-and-longs. Youngstown State's ability to keep Yale's offense off schedule will likely determine how close this game is.

The Pick: Youngstown State

Illinois State at No. 16 Southeastern Louisiana

When Illinois State Has The Ball:

Illinois State	SLU
Total Offense (5.6 YPP, 20th)	Total Defense (4.8 YPP, 10th)
Success Rate (47.3%, 10th)	Def. Success Rate (32.4%, 3rd)
Rushing Offense (4.6 YPC, 17th)	Rushing Defense (3.8 YPC, 12th)
Passing Offense (6.9 YPA, 22nd)	Passing Defense (6.3 YPA, 8th)
Turnover Rate (1.5%, 12th)	Turnovers Forced (1.9%, 21st)
RZ TD% (77.1%, 2nd)	RZ TD% Allowed (67.9%, 19th)
Pressure Allowed (19.8%, 3rd)	Pressure Rate (44.6%, 4th)
TFL Allowed (6.5%, 8th)	TFL Rate (11.9%, 5th)

When Southeastern Louisiana Has The Ball:

SLU	Illinois State
Total Offense (6.1 YPP, 13th)	Total Defense (5.5 YPP, 17th)
Success Rate (46.7%, 12th)	Def. Success Rate (43.7%, 24th)
Rushing Offense (4.8 YPC, 14th)	Rushing Defense (3.9 YPC, 16th)
Passing Offense (8.1 YPA, 11th)	Passing Defense (7.3 YPA, 20th)
Turnover Rate (1.5%, 11th)	Turnovers Forced (2.0%, 17th)
RZ TD% (67.5%, 11th)	RZ TD% Allowed (71.1%, 23rd)
Pressure Allowed (25.6%, 8th)	Pressure Rate (37%, 14th)
TFL Allowed (7.9%, 16th)	TFL Rate (8.2%, 16th)

This game is tough to analyze as Illinois State has frankly looked terrible at times this season, but still found ways to win key games against South Dakota and SDSU. On the other hand, Southeastern Louisiana has not beaten a quality opponent this season, aside from maybe UTRGV.

I think Southeastern Louisiana could give the Illinois State offense some trouble with its talented secondary, NFL-level defensive tackle Kaleb Proctor, and linebacker KK Reno. The Lions excel at creating negative plays, while Illinois State may not have the run game to keep this defense at bay. Much of this game may come down to Tommy Rittenhouse's playmaking ability and Daniel Sobkowicz's ability to win one-on-one matchups on the outside.

On the other side, SLU's offense has struggled against the best defenses it has played. While Illinois State does not have an elite defense, it is a step up in competition for the Lions. Illinois State does have the worst down-to-down defense of all playoff teams, so the Redbirds will need to force Carson Camp and Kyle Lowe into mistakes. Look for the Lions to trust Camp, but have packages for Lowe at key moments when they need an explosive play.

The Pick: Southeastern Louisiana

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