Behind The Numbers: Week 4 MVFC Preview

Our annual "Behind The Numbers" series returns here at FCS Football Central ahead of the 2026 college football season. You may be familiar with our Behind The Numbers recap each week, but we wanted to expand the series this year. We have added a preview series, which will spotlight the biggest games in each conference across the country.

Our goal is to highlight teams every week and bring you what I think will be the most important statistic to monitor for that specific game. This isn't a comprehensive preview of the game; we will have that in another article each week, but it will allow me to give you important tidbits on a wide variety of games throughout the season.

Our Week 4 previews continue with the MVFC, which is headlined by a Top 15 matchup between South Dakota and Youngstown State.

No. 24 Southern Illinois at Murray State

How does this Southern Illinois offense continue to develop?

Going into the season, we talked about how SIU's offense had several key returners and should be an elite unit like they were last year. That has not been the case through four games. The Salukis have a season success rate of 35.6%, which ranks 89th in the country. They are also tied for last in the MVFC in yards per play (5.0). If they are going to have a bounce-back week, it'll be against Murray State. This defense ranks dead last in the MVFC, allowing 7.2 yards per play and ranks 99th nationally in success rate allowed.

No. 7 North Dakota at Indiana State

How does the North Dakota offense bounce back?

North Dakota has been elite offensively this season, posting a 51.6% success rate, which is good for 6th nationally. The offense did not show up last week against Nebraska. This might not be unexpected against a Big Ten team, but it was an overall disappointing effort. The Fighting Hawks have also not faced a good defense all season. All of their first three opponents rank outside the Top 80 nationally, including Portland State (126th) and Long Island (122nd). Did this team just feast on overmatched opponents?

Indiana State certainly isn't an elite defense, but it is much better than the other three FCS opponents that North Dakota has faced. Indiana State ranks 44th nationally in defensive efficiency and has been particularly good against the run. The Sycamores have the 4th-best rushing defensive success rate in the FCS (28.5%) plus are only giving up 3.2 yards per carry.

No. 3 Illinois State at Northern Iowa

Will UNI be able to score against this Illinois State defense?

Until Iowa skewed the numbers last weekend, UNI boasted one of the best passing offenses in the country. In the previous two games, quarterback Jaxon Dailey averaged 265 passing yards and 2 TDs per game, plus completed 70% of his passes. Now, the Panthers face one of the best passing defenses in the FCS. The Redbirds lead the MVFC in pass defense efficiency, allowing only 1 passing TD and forcing 4 INTs. They are also holding opponents to 6.2 yards per pass attempt, which ranks 2nd in the MVFC.

No. 8 South Dakota at No. 11 Youngstown State

Will Youngstown State allow South Dakota to establish a consistent run game?

We had major questions about Youngstown State's rushing defense last week. The concern is even bigger after the Penguins allowed 308 rushing yards on 6.8 yards per carry last week. They are going to have to stop this run game on early downs to give their secondary a chance to compete with these receivers and push Austyn Modrzewski into mistakes.

South Dakota's rushing attack has not been as effective as South Dakota State's, only ranking 64th nationally in rushing success rate (40.4%). Despite that, the Coyotes are still averaging the second-highest yards per carry in the MVFC (6.0). What does this mean? The South Dakota run game has been boom-or-bust early in the year. It's not consistent, but when they do hit one, it goes for an explosive play.

Charles Pierre Jr.'s ability to establish himself on early downs will likely determine whether or not Youngstown State can get stops to give Beau Brungard enough chances in this game. If South Dakota is able to run the ball on early downs, it will open up the play-action passing game, where Modrzewski has been so effective in connecting on the deep ball.

On the other side, Youngstown State's offense has been led by an effective passing attack. The Penguins have the most effective passing game in the FCS with a 62% success rate. This will be a battle of strengths since South Dakota's secondary has been the best part of this defense. A lot of their success is linked to a very good pass rush. South Dakota ranks 3rd in the MVFC in sacks (9), while also leading the MVFC in yards per pass attempt allowed (5.9).

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