Behind The Numbers: No. 1 North Dakota State vs. No. 2 South Dakota State Preview

It's finally time for the FCS Game of the Year.

This will be the third time these programs have met in a No. 1 vs No. 2 matchup, including last season when the Bison defeated the Jackrabbits 13-9 in Fargo. These programs have also won the last four national championships, making this a must-watch game on Saturday night.

Let's dive into some of the most important numbers behind this matchup that you won't find just by looking at simple stats like points per game or yards per game.

	North Dakota State	South Dakota State
Success Rate	58%	46.4%
Defensive Success Rate	32%	36.4%
Yards Per Play	7.77	5.74
Red Zone TD%	78.4%	61%
Defensive RZ TD%	50%	31.3%
Yards Per Carry (RBs)	5.6	4.5
YPC Allowed	3.05	3.61
Explosive Rush Rate	7%	3.7%
Pressures Per Game	15.1	19

When South Dakota State Has The Ball

The biggest question and x-factor in this game is the health of quarterback Chase Mason. He left last week's game against Murray State with a lower leg/ankle injury, and we likely won't receive an update on his status until this game kicks off on Saturday.

Whether Mason is healthy, limited, or if backup quarterback Luke Marble is playing, the Jackrabbits will have a clear path to winning this game. Run the ball effectively, make this a low-possession game, hit play action deep shots, limit turnovers, win on "money" downs, and capitalize in the red zone. Let's cover the offensive part of this first.

South Dakota State will have to find a way to establish the run in order to win this game. This might be a minor issue. The Jacks are averaging only 4.5 yards per carry with their two main running backs, and outside of a dominant second half against Youngstown State, have struggled to run the ball consistently. That average (4.5) from the running backs would be the worst output for an SDSU offense since 2015. Since that year, the Jacks have averaged 5.3 yards or more per carry, only falling under six yards per carry twice in that span.

Consistency isn't the only concern, as the Jacks haven't hit the 'home run' balls as often, either. As a team, SDSU is only generating an explosive run (run of 15 yards or more) on 3.7% of their rushing attempts. They have to find a way to flip that against one of the best rushing defenses in the country. The Bison have held opponents to only 3.05 yards per carry this season.

South Dakota State running back Julius Loughridge (15) | Samantha Laurey / Argus Leader / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Another issue for South Dakota State's offense has been completing passes downfield. The SDSU quarterbacks are 10-for-29 (34.5%) on passes 20 or more yards downfield. Mason is 9-of-25 and Marble is 1-of-4. The health of wide receiver Lofton O'Groske will be important to monitor here. The SDSU wide receivers have not generated many yards after the catch (YAC), with all the receivers averaging less than seven YAC per catch.

It's not all negative for the Jacks, who have excelled in the intermediate passing game. Whoever starts at quarterback will need to consistently complete passes at the chains to extend drives. One potential weakness of the Bison defense has been in the red zone. While opponents don't reach the red zone often, they are scoring touchdowns on 50% of their red zone opportunities.

When North Dakota State Has The Ball

This is the area of the field where South Dakota State will need to make plays if it wants to pull off the upset. North Dakota State's offense is unquestionably the best offense in the country this season. Usually, there are two ways to excel offensively: Consistency or explosive plays. The Bison have been elite at both.

The Bison lead the FCS with an offensive success rate of 58% (consistency), while also leading the nation in yards per play at 7.77 (explosiveness). North Dakota State has really been elite at almost everything offensively, whether it's being efficient or producing big, game-changing plays. Before diving into the numbers, there is one question that many fans have been asking.

Has North Dakota State played any good defenses? The best defense the Bison have faced this year is most likely South Dakota, followed by Southern Illinois and Illinois State. The Coyotes rank No. 41 in yards per game and No. 52 in yards per play, while SIU ranks No. 42 and No. 63, respectively. Illinois State ranks outside the Top 85 in both categories. This is by far the best defense the Bison have faced this season. South Dakota State ranks 8th in yards per game allowed and 15th in yards per play allowed.

The passing attack is what really makes this North Dakota State offense special. While Barika Kpeenu has shown the ability to create explosive plays, the consistency hasn't always been there for the running game between the tackles. However, the North Dakota State passing attack has been elite.

However, the Bison have not faced a defense that ranks inside the Top 50 for passing yards allowed or yards per attempt allowed. South Dakota State ranks 21st in passing yards allowed per game and 17th in yards per attempt allowed. This is the best secondary and pass rush the Bison have seen this year. SDSU generates 19 pressures per game, nearly double what any NDSU opponent has been doing this year. The Jacks may be able to fluster and frustrate the NDSU offense, which has not yet seen this level of defense.

The red zone will be important for South Dakota State's defense. The Jacks have been elite at keeping opponents out of the end zone in the red zone. Opponents are only scoring touchdowns on 31.3% of red zone trips against the Jackrabbits. If they can hold NDSU to field goals and get some stops on fourth down, it could go a long way in helping SDSU get the win.

North Dakota State quarterback Cole Payton (9) | NDSU Athletics

Now, let's take a look at what makes this NDSU offense so special. It starts with Cole Payton, who has been the best player in the country. I already mentioned that NDSU has been the most consistent and explosive offense in the FCS. A lot of that is connected to Cole Payton being the best downfield passer in the nation and it's not close.

Payton is a staggering 22-of-32 (68.7%) for 732 yards and 22.9 yards per attempt on passes 20 or more yards downfield. That's an insane level of production. It means every time Payton decides to throw the ball 20 or more yards downfield, he's getting an average of 23 yards. In comparison, Chase Mason is only averaging 12 yards on throws of 20 yards or more downfield.

To go a step further, Payton has targeted wide receiver Bryce Lance and tight end Reis Kessel 14 times on these deep balls. He's completed 13 of 14 of those attempts, generating 476 yards and 34 yards per attempt. This passing game has been unstoppable, and Payton has not been turning the football over. He also leads the country with a 74% completion percentage.

What Does An Upset Look Like?

An upset here is if South Dakota State can actually generate pressure on Cole Payton while limiting his ability to make plays outside the pocket. The Jacks will also need big stops in the red zone and on potential fourth-down attempts in the red zone.

Offensively, South Dakota State will want to play a low-possession game, where they establish the run and hit the deep shot off play action. Limiting possessions increases the variance, making those stops even more valuable. If either team struggles to contain the downhill rushing attack between the tackles, it becomes incredibly difficult to win this game.

Even with all this analysis, the game could ultimately come down to the health of Chase Mason. If he's not able to go, is redshirt freshman Luke Marble ready for this incredible stage? I can't wait to find out, but I have a feeling we'll see Mason taking the first snaps for the Jackrabbits on Saturday night.

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