Behind The Numbers: Week 10 FCS Football Review

Week 10 was headlined by the chaos of seven Top 25 teams losing to unranked opponents or teams ranked below them. The following are some overall thoughts and key statistics from the biggest upsets of the weekend, along with a look at North Dakota State's win over Youngstown State.

Success rate removes many of the underlying factors of a game and strictly tells you how well a team played down-to-down. While outliers can swing an individual game, success rate can be a better indicator of what future performance will be. A play is "successful" if 50% of the yards needed are gained on first down, 70% are gained on second down, and 100% are gained on third or fourth down.

The Average Success Rate for a college football program is about 40%, while closer to 50% is considered excellent, and anything under 30% is deemed poor.

We take a look behind the numbers from this weekend's FCS action in Week 10.

Abilene Christian 31, Tarleton State 28

Success Rate: ACU (39.7%), Tarleton (37.6%)

In terms of performance, this game played out fairly evenly. Both teams struggled offensively at times, while Tarleton State faltered in situations where the field narrowed, and Abilene Christian generated just enough explosive plays at opportune moments.

Tarleton State drove deep into ACU territory seven times, only scoring touchdowns on three of those possessions. On two of those drives, the Texans came away with zero points. The Abilene Christian defense stepped up on key 3rd and 4th downs.

On the other side of the ball, it was really feast or famine for Abilene Christian's offense. On six of ACU's 13 drives, the Wildcats punted or failed to convert on 4th down. On the other seven drives, they scored four touchdowns, one field goal, threw an interception, and missed another field goal.

Before the game, one of the key matchups to watch was ACU's pass blocking against Tarleton State's elite pass rush. The Wildcats found a way to flip this battle, allowing only one sack and only allowing nine pressures on 31 of Stone Earle's dropbacks. The run game relied on a handful of explosive plays, generating five rushes of 15 yards or more, while struggling to find consistency outside of those big gains.

Abilene Christian kicker Brandon Perez (38) | Aly Bayliss (ACU Athletics)

Indiana State 24, Southern Dakota State 12

Success Rate: ISU (37.5%), SDSU (43.6%)

This was the most shocking upset of the weekend, which was sparked by the outstanding play of wide receiver Rashad Rochelle. He scored three touchdowns, including a 95-yard kickoff return and a 57-yard touchdown reception, which sealed the game.

South Dakota State outplayed Indiana State down-to-down, but failed to establish any dominance, and its success rate advantage was mitigated by Indiana State's explosive plays, while the Jacks failed to generate many explosive plays. Many people saw the total yardage disparity, but it does not tell the whole story.

South Dakota State outgained Indiana State 441 yards to 228; however, this was largely due to the fact that the Jackrabbits ran 92 plays, compared to only 45 for the Sycamores. In fact, on a per-play basis, Indiana State actually outgained SDSU 5.1 yards per play to 4.8.

This didn't come from consistent down-to-down success, but the ability to generate explosive plays. The Sycamores finished with five plays of at least 15 yards (3 over 30 yards), while SDSU also had five plays that went over 15 yards, but in over double the number of plays that Indiana State ran on Saturday. When you pair this with 11 tackles for loss and five sacks, it led to an SDSU offense that was unable to finish drives.

This leads to the struggles SDSU has been facing, for now, without quarterback Chase Mason. For the season, SDSU is averaging 5.44 yards per play, which ultimately measures explosiveness. This ranks 62nd nationally and 7th in the MVFC. Particularly, they are not finding these plays on the ground, where SDSU is only averaging 3.76 yards per carry, which ranks 84th nationally and 8th in the MVFC.

A large contributing factor to this is the 6.11 tackles for loss per game the Jacks are allowing, which ranks 83rd in the FCS. Finally, in situational football, SDSU is scoring touchdowns on only 60% of their red zone trips, converting 40.7% of their 3rd downs (52nd nationally), and is 5-of-20 on 4th down, which is the fourth-worst conversion rate in the entire FCS. This team has some real things to figure out ahead of three ranked matchups to end the season.

South Dakota 26, North Dakota 21

Success Rate: USD (40.4%), UND (47%)

South Dakota deserves a lot of credit for battling and finding a way to secure a victory in a must-win situation. The Coyotes jumped out to a 26-7 lead, holding on to win despite a late North Dakota comeback. The South Dakota defense is who deserves a ton of the credit. The Coyotes were able to get a safety early and then produced an 80-yard defensive score in the third quarter. The South Dakota offense only generated 4.7 yards per play, finishing 2-of-11 on 3rd and 4th down.

North Dakota should be kicking itself for the mistakes and missed opportunities that defined this game. Not only did they give up nine points to the South Dakota defense, but they also allowed a touchdown on a short field after giving up a long kickoff return. Not only that, but the Hawks had three costly turnovers and were stopped twice on crucial 4th downs. They even held standout running back L.J. Phillips Jr. to only 4.4 yards per carry, his longest run being only 12 yards.

Idaho State 38, UC Davis 36

Success Rate: ISU (51.4%), UC Davis (60.5%)

This is another game where the losing team feels like they should have won. Before we get into where UC Davis blew this game, a ton of credit needs to go to the Idaho State offense. Both offenses averaged exactly 7.2 yards per play, and Idaho State dominated on the ground. Running back Dason Brooks had 219 rushing yards on 9.1 yards per carry. He generated five runs of 15 yards or more and 125 yards after contact.

UC Davis had one of the best offensive performances of the weekend, outside of a few key moments. The Aggies were 2-of-8 on 3rd down, including three failed attempts that led to field goals, instead of touchdowns, deep in Idaho State territory, all of which came in the second half. They also turned the ball over twice in Idaho State territory in crucial moments, which ultimately cost them the game.

North Dakota State 38, Youngstown State 30

Success Rate: NDSU (47%), YSU (45.9%)

There's a real argument that Youngstown State outplayed North Dakota State this past weekend. Three key plays in this game led to NDSU touchdowns, which significantly altered the game's momentum. An interception on Youngstown State's 19-yard line, a bizarre turnover on a kickoff inside the Youngstown State 10-yard line, and then an incredible kickoff return by Jackson Williams were the difference on Saturday.

Yet, despite the massive mistakes, Youngstown State and Beau Brungard battled to make this a game until the end. YSU held the advantage in yards per play (6.2 to 5.1), which was linked to its ability to hold NDSU's rushing attack and Cole Payton's legs in check for most of the game, only allowing 3.3 yards per carry.

However, North Dakota State showed why it's a national championship program, delivering over and over in key moments, and a lot of that was linked to the brilliance of Cole Payton. NDSU went 7-of-12 on 3rd down, compared to 3-of-8 for YSU, including an incredible conversion on 3rd-and-18 late in the game. NDSU also found a way to score touchdowns on 80% of its red zone drives, which played a key role in keeping the Penguins from mounting a late comeback.

Who Were The Most Dominant Teams In Week 10?

In this section, we will highlight the teams that were the most dominant in success rate margin. This will highlight which teams truly dominated, even if the final score hides what really happened. Games against non-Division I opponents were excluded.

Towson (68.1%), North Carolina A&T (22.9%)
Southeastern Louisiana (66.7%), East Texas A&M (33.3%)
Presbyterian (63.2%), Valparaiso (34.3%)
Stephen F. Austin (58.5%), UTRGV (39.4%)
Mercer (55%), Furman (22.6%)
William & Mary (52.3%), UAlbany (24.3%)
McNeese (52.1%), Northwestern State (25.7%)
Monmouth (50%), Bryant (28.3%)
Yale (45.7%), Columbia (25.9%)
Montana State (51.2%), Northern Colorado (30.3%)

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