FCS Playoffs: First-Round Preview & Predictions
In this story:
We predict the first round of the FCS Playoffs right here. You can find more information on the biggest games each week on our FCS Preview Show.
2023 Predictions Record: 73-34
2022 Predictions Record: 115-35
Duquesne (7-4) @ Youngstown State (7-4)
Kickoff: 4:00 p.m. CT (ESPN+)
Duquesne holds one of the two all-time wins for the NEC in the FCS Playoffs and will look to make history once again this weekend. Quarterback Darius Perrantes (2,291 Passing Yards; 21 Passing TDs) will be a key factor against a Youngstown secondary allowing over 250 yards per game. Dayvia Gbor (3 INTs) and Ayden Garnes (2 INTs; 11 PBUs) lead a Duquesne secondary that is holding opponents to under 180 passing yards per game.
Youngstown State leads the all-time series 5-0 and enters this weekend on a 16-game home winning streak in the FCS Playoffs. The Penguins enter this game with an impressive rushing attack behind running backs Tyshon King (894 Rushing Yards) and Dra Rushton (542 Rushing Yards). Youngstown State dominates time of possession (34:27) and will face the second-worst rushing defense in the postseason, which could be the reason this game gets out of hand in the second half.
Prediction: Youngstown State (34-13)
Sacramento State (7-4) @ North Dakota (7-4)
Kickoff: 12:00 p.m. CT (ESPN+)
Sacramento State has lost three of the past five games, including last week's 31-21 loss to UC Davis to end the regular season. Freshman Carson Conklin (744 Passing Yards; 6 TDs) has started the past few games, but there is a question if Kaiden Bennett (1,951 Passing Yards; 15 TDs) will step back into the QB1 role. The defense has struggled to create negative plays this season but will need to find a way to slow down a solid rushing attack for the Fighting Hawks.
North Dakota enters this game 6-0 inside the Alerus Center this season. Running back Gaven Ziebarth (604 Rushing Yards; 7 TDs) has been a key piece for this offensive attack that enters the postseason as one of the most efficient red zone offenses (79.5%) in the postseason. Quarterback Tommy Shuster (2,119 Passing Yards; 18 TDs) is having an outstanding season and will need to have an efficient day against a Sacramento State secondary that has forced 13 interceptions.
Prediction: North Dakota (31-24)
Drake (8-3) @ North Dakota State (8-3)
Kickoff: 2:30 p.m. CT (ESPN+)
Drake will make the first FCS Playoff appearance in school history after an undefeated run through the Pioneer League. The Bulldogs excel in generating pressure against opposing quarterbacks, led by defensive lineman Finn Claypool (19 TFLs; 12.5 Sacks). This team was 0-3 in out-of-conference play, including a loss to Northwestern College (NAIA) and two blowout losses to North Dakota and South Dakota State.
North Dakota State enters the postseason with plenty of positive momentum after back-to-back ranked wins to end the season. The Bison offense has continued to be extremely balanced behind quarterback Cam Miller (2,049 Passing Yards; 25 Total TDs). Despite recording only 29 sacks this season, the Bison defense leads all postseason teams in pressure rate (64.85%). Safety Cole Wisniewski (63 Tackles; 5 INTs) leads the secondary that is holding opponents to less than 185 passing yards per game.
Prediction: North Dakota State (58-10)
Lafayette (9-2) @ Delaware (8-3)
Kickoff: 1:00 p.m. CT (ESPN+)
Lafayette ended the season on a two-game winning streak and will be looking for the first win in the FCS Playoffs in school history. Defense is the key for the Leopards as linebackers Billy Shaeffer (20.5 TFLs; 10 Sacks) and Marco Olivas (65 Tackles; 7.5 TFLs) have been one of the best duos in the country. Running back Jamar Curtis (1,333 Rushing Yards; 12 TDs) ranks No. 4 in the nation for rushing this season, including four games with 150+ rushing yards.
Delaware enters this game after losing two of the final three games of the regular season. The Blue Hens have a massive question mark at quarterback after injuries have plagued the room, which increases the importance of running back Marcus Yarns (846 Rushing Yards; 14 TDs). Delaware's defense ranks No. 4 among postseason teams in red zone touchdown percentage. Defensive lineman Chase McGowan (14 TFLs; 5 Sacks) will be a key player to watch this weekend for the Blue Hens.
Prediction: Delaware (30-23)
Nicholls State (6-4) @ Southern Illinois (7-4)
Kickoff: 2:00 p.m. CT (ESPN+)
Nicholls State shocked the country by winning the Southland after being voted fourth in the preseason predicted order of finish. The Colonels have forced opponents into mistakes all season, led by Tyler Morton (4 INTs) and Quinton Sharkey (3 INTs). Nicholls ranks No. 9 in the nation in turnover margin, which could be a key this weekend against a talented Southern Illinois offense. The key for Nicholls will be establishing the rushing attack behind Collin Guggenheim (792 Rushing Yards) and Jaylon Spears (709 Rushing Yards).
Southern Illinois has lost four of the final seven games of the season after a 4-0 start, including an FBS win against Northern Illinois. The defense has thrived against the run, holding opponents to 94.5 rushing yards per game and less than three yards per carry. Offensively, the Salukis are led by a dynamic wide receiver core headlined by Izaiah Hartrup (689 Receiving Yards) and Vinson Davis III (572 Receiving Yards).
Prediction: Southern Illinois (31-17)
Gardner-Webb (7-4) @ Mercer (8-3)
Kickoff: 2:00 p.m. CT (ESPN+)
Mercer makes the first appearance in the FCS Playoffs in school history after winning four consecutive games to end the season. Defense continues to be the identity of this team as the Bears rank No. 6 in defensive success rate among postseason teams. Linebacker Ken Standley (80 Tackles; 13 TFLs) and safety Lance Wise Jr. (72 Tackles; 4 INTs) are key players to Mercer's defensive success. Wide receiver Ty James (1,002 Receiving Yards; 7 TDs) could be a mismatch for Gardner-Webb's secondary which allows over 230 yards per game.
Gardner-Webb ended the season with a five-game winning streak that was sparked by a timely quarterback change. Freshman Jaylen King (992 Passing Yards; 10 TDs) is 5-1 as the starter this season and has been a massive key for the huge turnaround. Narii Gaither (685 Rushing Yards) and Jayden Brown (646 Rushing Yards) have been a dynamic running back duo. Defensive lineman Ty French (17.5 TFLs; 6.5 Sacks) will be key against a Mercer offense that ranks last in tackle-for-loss rate among postseason teams.
Prediction: Mercer (24-16)
Chattanooga (7-4) @ Austin Peay (9-2)
Kickoff: 2:00 p.m. CT (ESPN+)
Chattanooga will be searching for the first win since Oct. 28 after back-to-back losses to end the season. Quarterback Chase Artopoeus (2,672 Passing Yards; 20 TDs) will be a massive key this weekend after the loss of running back Ailym Ford. Wide receivers Jamoi Mayes (941 Receiving Yards) and Javin Whatley (871 Receiving Yards) are dangerous threats on the outside for the Mocs. EDGE Jay Person (16 TFLs; 8.5 Sacks) and Kameron Brown (3 INTs; 4 PBUs) are players to watch defensively for the Mocs in this matchup.
Austin Peay enters the postseason on a nine-game winning streak, which is the second-longest active streak in the FCS. Quarterback Mike DiLiello (3,057 Passing Yards; 27 TDs) is having an outstanding season for the Governors and has a loaded wide receiving core with three players surpassing the 600-yard mark. This offense will need to generate explosive plays this weekend and a key could be running back Jevon Jackson (1,189 Rushing Yards; 8 TDs), who has recorded six games with 100+ rushing yards this season.
Prediction: Austin Peay (41-37)
North Carolina Central (9-2) @ Richmond (8-3)
Kickoff: 1:00 p.m. CT (ESPN+)
North Carolina Central will be making the first appearance in the FCS Playoffs in school history. The Eagles have one of the most efficient offenses in the postseason, led by quarterback Davius Richard (20 Passing TDs; 15 Rushing TDs). This offense has only turned the ball over six times this season, while also being the third most efficient in the red zone (78.6% TD Rate). The Eagles have been less consistent defensively, but Jason Chambers (3 INTs; 6 PBUs) is a true lockdown cornerback for this defense.
Richmond is 1-2 against HBCU programs this season after losses to Morgan State and Hampton. The Spiders enter this matchup on a six-game winning streak as the rushing attack has surpassed the 100-yard mark in five consecutive games. Running back Savon Smith (604 Rushing Yards) is a key player to watch this weekend as the Spiders aim to continue to have success on the ground. Linebacker Tristan Wheeler (104 Tackles; 9 TFLs) leads a Richmond defense that leads all playoff teams in tackle-for-loss rate (12.3%).
Prediction: North Carolina Central (34-27)
