Behind The Numbers: Week 8 FCS Football Review

It's time for another edition of our Behind The Numbers series here at FCS Football Central.

Each week, we will highlight a couple of marquee national matchups, using success rate to get a deeper look than what the final score may tell you about what really happened in the game. We will take a look at the most dominant teams of the week, which teams outplayed their opponent but made too many mistakes to win the game, and which teams got outplayed but still escaped with a win.

Success rate takes out a lot of the underlying factors of a game and strictly tells you how well a team played down-to-down. While outliers can swing an individual game, success rate can be a better indicator of what future performance will be. A play is "successful" if 50% of the yards needed are gained on first down, 70% are gained on second down, and 100% are gained on third or fourth down.

The average Success Rate for a college football program is about 40%, while closer to 50% is considered excellent, and anything under 30% is deemed poor.

We take a look behind the numbers from this weekend's FCS football action in Week 8.

Quick Hits:

Montana State 38, Weber State 33

Montana State came out and largely dominated the second half against Weber State, scoring 21 straight points before allowing a late TD to cut the lead to five. Weber State also scored 10 points directly from special teams and a fumble by the Bobcats. While there shouldn't be any major concerns, this defense is giving up yardage.

Weber State had an excellent success rate all game, posting a rushing success rate of over 60%. The Wildcats were able to drive the ball effectively with four drives of over 70 yards. Even in the second half, Weber State was gaining over 5 yards per play before two fumbles gave Montana State the momentum it needed to pull away. After the last few weeks, it's fair to have some level of concern about this defense, especially since Nate Dahl hadn't had 240 yards since the Portland State game.

South Dakota 26, North Dakota 23 (OT)

This game had some crazy swings, a ton of penalties, and was a back-and-forth MVFC battle. A quarter of North Dakota's first downs came by penalties. The key to the game (who would run the ball most effectively on early downs) was very clearly won by South Dakota. South Dakota RBs had 178 rushing yards on 5.9 yards per carry, while North Dakota RBs only had 67 rushing yards on 3.9 yards per carry.

In fact, if you take out Matt Lawson's one explosive run, the Fighting Hawks averaged only 3 yards per carry. The Coyotes also generated over 20 pressures, including seven by Samuel Same on only 23 pass-rush snaps. This helped lead to some turnovers from quarterback Jerry Kaminski. Ultimately, everything was hard for the North Dakota offense, which only averaged 4.9 yards per play in this game.

Who Were The Most Dominant Teams In Week 8?

In this section, we will highlight the teams that were the most dominant in success-rate margin (OFF SR-DEF SR). This will highlight which teams truly dominated, even if the final score hides what really happened. Games against non-Division I opponents were excluded.

ETSU (Net SR: 36.1%)
Tennessee Tech (Net SR: 25.3%)
Lindenwood (Net SR: 21.9%)
Harvard (Net SR: 21.2%)
Western Illinois (Net SR: 20.9%)
South Dakota State (Net SR: 20.7%)
UC Davis (Net SR: 20.1%)
Monmouth (Net SR: 19.5%)
Incarnate Word (Net SR: 18.7%)
Stephen F. Austin (Net SR: 17.3%)

ETSU continued its undefeated run through the SoCon with a dominant 38-0 win over VMI. The Bucs finished with a staggering 32 first downs to only 6 for the Keydets. Running back TJ Peyton has topped the 100-yard mark in three of his last four games. ETSU's next opponent also made this list.

Tennessee Tech only won 28-13 over The Citadel, but dominated this game down-to-down. The Golden Eagles held the Bulldogs to 3.7 yards per play, while their only touchdown came off a fumble return. Tennessee Tech has unlocked its rushing attack after struggling early this season. TTU's running backs have averaged 5.0 yards per carry or more each of the last three games.

Lindenwood and Western Illinois dominated their OVC matchups, which included a dominant 55-24 win for the Leathernecks over UT Martin. In his last three games, Kennedy McGill has recorded 644 passing yards, 581 rushing yards, and 9 total TDs for Western Illinois.

Harvard backed up its Top 10 ranking from the playoff committee by smashing Princeton in a 35-7 blowout win. The Crimson held the Tigers to 3.5 yards per play, while they averaged nearly 11 yards every time they completed a pass. Charlie Smith is finding his groove, throwing for 230 yards and 2 TDs in the win.

South Dakota State got back on track against MVFC bottom-feeder Murray State. The Racers only averaged 3.9 yards per play and were 2-of-14 on 3rd downs. The thing to watch for SDSU going forward is the lack of effectiveness at throwing the football down the field. The volume of deep throws decreased, but Chase Mason finished 5-of-10 on throws 10+ yards downfield. Only 1 pass over 20 yards was completed. This will be an important factor to monitor next week against South Dakota.

UC Davis finally got a dominant win over a Big Sky opponent, defeating Northern Colorado 33-6. It should be noted that the Bears only punted twice and averaged over 5 yards per play. The Aggies offense stepped up, averaging over 8 yards per pass attempt and finishing 3-of-3 on 4th downs.

Monmouth continues to roll in CAA play, which can be linked to a potent rushing attack. Freshman Kenny Smith Jr. has had back-to-back games with 160 or more rushing yards on nearly 7 yards per carry. The Hawks rolled up nearly 300 rushing yards as a team this week. It's a scary sight to see for opposing CAA defenses.

Incarnate Word finally got to show how good this team really is with a dominant win over McNeese. Emmett Brown had his best game of the season with over 300 total yards and 5 total TDs, while completing 73% of his passes. It helps that former All-American receiver Roy Alexander is finally back in the fold.

Stephen F. Austin breaks into this list while playing another ranked opponent. The Lumberjacks were up 45-17 over Southeastern Louisiana in the fourth quarter, but continued to lean on their rushing attack, which rolled up 279 yards this weekend.

Which Week 8 Games Conflicted With Success Rate?

Each week, this section will highlight teams that won the success rate battle but still lost the game. They outperformed their opponent down-to-down, but lost because of turnovers, penalties, special teams, or explosive plays.

Penn 24, Yale 21 (Penn 25.7%, Yale 43.8%)
Austin Peay 27, Northern Alabama 21 (UNA 40.6%, APSU 34.4%)

It's a brutal look for Yale this week as the Bulldogs dominated Penn down-to-down, but still ended this game with a loss in a crucial conference game. Penn went three-and-out 7 times in this game and still found a way to win. This was set up by four turnovers from Dante Reno, two of which came deep in Penn territory and another that gave the Quakers an easy 3 points.

Austin Peay does it again... The Govs had another game with poor down-to-down offensive consistency, but were aided by explosive plays and a defense that thrives on negative plays. Two explosive passes to Marvin Sims and Denver Harper, plus two turnovers created by the Austin Peay defensive line, were largely the difference in this one. The Govs punted five times and settled for field goals twice in the red zone. It's a dangerous recipe, but the Govs keep finding ways to win.

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