Behind The Numbers: Week 0 FCS Football Review

The 2025 college football season is finally here, and Week 0 gave us a small taste to get us ready for the upcoming season.

While we had to live with the disappointment of the UC Davis-Mercer no-contest decision in Montgomery, the action on the field gave us the opportunity to learn more about these teams for this season. As always, we'll take a look at success rates for each game, and then dive into some of the most important factors in what decided each game, and what the numbers are really telling us.

Success rate eliminates many of the outlying factors of a game and provides a strict measure of how well a team played from down to down. While outliers can swing an individual game, the success rate can be a better indicator of what future performance will be. The Average Success Rate for a college football program is about 40%, while closer to 50% is considered excellent, and anything under 30% is deemed poor.

We take a look behind the numbers from this weekend's FCS action in Week 0.

Nicholls 20, No. 5 Incarnate Word 6

Success Rate: Nicholls (30%), UIW (29%)

The defensive touchdown by Ty Marsh really blew this game open, making the final score appear wider than the game suggested. Both defenses really dominated this game, holding both offenses to a putrid 30% success rate. Neither offense looked capable in the red zone, combining for zero touchdowns in seven red zone drives.

The difference in the game was Nicholls' ability to generate difference-making plays. The Colonels generated 11 tackles for loss, resulting in a TFL rate of 16%. After a nice opening drive, the longest drive for UIW the rest of the game was 39 yards, and only three drives topped 20 yards. Nicholls rattled Richard Torres by bringing pressure from different places on the field.

Jake Dalmado and Joe Mason dominated the game with 5.5 tackles for loss and 3.5 combined sacks. The other difference in the game was the big throw Deuce Hogan made to Karaaz Johnson for the 55-yard touchdown. Nicholls' offense made the game-changing play when they needed to.

On the other side, this was a dominant defensive performance by Incarnate Word. The defense overcame poor field position all game, and outside of the 55-yard touchdown, they only allowed 2.59 yards per play. The UIW offense wasted an outstanding performance from the UIW defense.

North Carolina Central 31, Southern 14

Success Rate: NCCU (54%), Southern (41%)

Anyone watching this game saw that Southern stayed alive early because of two key explosive plays. The Jaguars hit on two huge touchdown runs and were close to connecting on a few deep passes, but they were either dropped or just overthrown. Explosive plays can be a nice way to mask consistency issues, which Southern took advantage of with Tre Holly and Cam'Ron McCoy.

The real story of this game was on the other side of the ball. North Carolina Central was utterly dominant offensively, posting a 54% success rate, the highest of any team in Week 0. Walker Harris was fantastic after an early red zone fumble, completing over 80% of his passes and making great decisions.

The real star here was the offensive line, which was absolutely outstanding in both run blocking and pass protection. NCCU only allowed six pressures on 30 dropbacks, compared to the 13 pressures NCCU's defense generated on 24 Southern dropbacks. They completely neutralized Ckelby Givens and gave Harris a great picket to operate from.

In the run game, the unit was even more dominant. They consistently got off double teams are were getting to blocks at the second level. Chris Mosley stole the show with 182 rushing yards on 10.7 yards per carry, but most came from massive rushing lanes created by the offensive line. Mosley averaged over four yards before contact, further showing how great the offensive line played.

Quick Hits

Success Rates:
Tarleton State (43%), Portland State (37%)
UNLV (51%), Idaho State (47%)

Tarleton State flashed a ton of new pieces defensively, on top of an already experienced group. They held a traditionally explosive Portland State offense to 4.3 yards per play without being overly aggressive. The Texans only registered six tackles for loss, but showed they could be disciplined and gap sound, limiting any big plays.

The Texans had 30 players play at least 10 defensive snaps, indicating they may have the depth necessary to make a deep playoff run. Redshirt freshman Tre Paige III was the star of the offense with 170 rushing yards and two touchdowns on 11.3 yards per carry. He had three carries over 15 yards and averaged over 6.2 yards after contact.

Idaho State running back Dason Brooks had a fantastic outing against UNLV. He had 10 carries over 10 yards, averaging 5.17 yards after contact. The offensive line only allowed nine pressures on 54 dropbacks, good for only a 17% pressure rate. Idaho State's offensive line had one of the most impressive outings of the weekend.

We don't have many statistics to report from Mercer-UC Davis, which was ruled a no-contest due to inclement weather. Both teams should feel good about their performances ahead of Week 1. Caden Pinnick showed flashes of being an absolute game-changer, while DJ Smith showed real maturity getting Mercer back into the game after a 23-3 deficit. Autavius Ison and Jordan Fisher both look like legit weapons at running back, breaking off explosive runs on Saturday night.

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