FCS Football Playoff Picture: Nov. 19 (Week 13)

After each week, we will review each conference and examine which teams should be considered locks, contenders, or have work to do. 24 teams will make the 2025 FCS playoffs with 11 automatic bids (conference winners) and 13 At-large bids.

“Locks” are teams that have clinched an auto bid or have a strong enough resume to earn an at-large bid. “Should Be In” teams are on track to be in the playoffs, but must avoid slip-ups. “Work to Do” teams still need stronger resumes to have a shot at the postseason.

Below is a breakdown of the playoff picture conference by conference entering Week 13.

Big Sky

Locks: Montana, Montana State

Nothing changed for Montana and Montana State as the two are set to clash in the Brawl of the Wild on Saturday. Not only are these teams playing for the Big Sky championship, but this game will also decide the No. 2 overall seed in the FCS Playoffs. Depending on the result, I don't see the loser dropping further than the No. 5 seed, but there's a strong argument that the loser deserves the No. 3 seed.

Should Be In: None
Work To Do: UC Davis, Northern Arizona, Sacramento State

UC Davis and Sacramento State are set to meet in the Causeway Classic this weekend. The Aggies played tough in Bozeman last weekend, but made too many mistakes and fell short in the second half. The Hornets escaped with a win over Idaho, setting up a potential play-in game against the Aggies. Whoever wins this game will make the field, but the loser could be left on the outside looking in.

Sacramento State would most likely be out with a loss, while UC Davis would have a much better chance to make the field. The Aggies would be 7-3 against the FCS, but their head-to-head win over Northern Arizona could be the difference on the bubble.

Speaking of Northern Arizona, the Lumberjacks do not have the strongest resume, but are very much alive in the playoff race. At 8-4, Northern Arizona would have wins over Southern Utah and Idaho State, along with an outstanding strength of schedule. The Lumberjacks should be rooting for UC Davis and no chaos scenarios, because if the bubble shrinks, NAU could miss the postseason.

CAA

Locks: Monmouth, Rhode Island

Rhode Island and Monmouth are both locked into the field. Both teams are 9-1 against the FCS and should win this weekend against some of the worst teams in the conference, which would secure a Top 16 seed. With a win, Rhode Island would finish undefeated in the CAA and win an outright conference title.

Despite that, Monmouth still has the stronger resume with a head-to-head win over Villanova, while its loss (New Hampshire) is a "better" loss than Rhode Island's loss to Brown. The biggest case for the Rams to be seeded over Monmouth is the health of starting quarterback Derek Robertson, who has missed the past few games with an injury.

Should Be In: Villanova

Villanova moves into the "Should Be In" tier with an overtime win over Stony Brook, improving to 8-1 against the FCS. The Wildcats finished 7-1 in the CAA and will end the season against Sacred Heart. They may already be locked into the field with wins over multiple bubble teams, but if they want a Top 16 seed, they need a win this weekend.

Work To Do: New Hampshire, William & Mary

New Hampshire has a chance to finish 8-4 with a win over Maine this weekend. The Wildcats' resume was bolstered by an upset win over Monmouth, and now they are projected to be either one of the last four teams in or one of the first teams left out. The Wildcats also hold the head-to-head win over William & Mary, which will also be on the bubble.

As for William & Mary, the Tribe could finish 8-4 overall with a win over Richmond on Saturday. The Tribe will need some help making the field, as they have not beaten a single team with a winning record. If you are a William & Mary fan, you should root for chaos, because that's what this team needs to happen.

Monmouth football player Charlie Sasso — Monmouth linebacker Charlie Sasso (5) | Doug Hood/Asbury Park Press / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Ivy League

Locks: Harvard

Harvard moves into "Lock" status after a dramatic win over Penn, moving the Crimson to 9-0 overall. Even if the Crimson loses to Yale this weekend, a 9-1 Harvard team will still have the resume to make the field as an at-large. With a win, the Crimson will have a solid case to receive one of the final Top 8 seeds at 10-0 overall. Harvard would also win the Ivy League championship outright with a victory on Saturday.

Should Be In: None
Work To Do: Dartmouth, Yale

Yale is the only team in the conference that can make the field as an auto bid. A win over Harvard would earn the Bulldogs a share of the conference title and secure an automatic bid to the playoffs. With a loss, Yale would be eliminated at 7-3 overall.

Dartmouth got some much-needed help this weekend and is on a trajectory to possibly be one of the last four teams in the field. The Big Green will face Brown this weekend and have a chance to finish 8-2 overall. They also hold a head-to-head win over New Hampshire and the potential NEC champion in Central Connecticut State. They will still need some help, but don't overlook this team making the field on Selection Sunday.

MVFC

Locks: North Dakota State, Illinois State, South Dakota

Illinois State and South Dakota moved into "Lock" status with wins this weekend. South Dakota has a bye week, finishing 8-4 overall, while Illinois State still has a tough game against Southern Illinois. The Coyotes have a strong case for a Top 16 seed, while Illinois State needs a win to reach 9-3 overall and secure a Top 16 seed. At 9-3 overall, Illinois State may have a case to get a Top 12 seed.

There's really not much to say about North Dakota State. The Bison have been a "Lock" for weeks now, and have already secured the MVFC auto-bid. They will conclude their season against St. Thomas (MN) this weekend. With a win, the Bison will be a lock for the No. 1 overall seed.

Should Be In: None
Work To Do: Youngstown State, North Dakota, South Dakota State

Youngstown State should be safe in the field at 7-4 overall with a game against Northern Iowa this weekend. The Penguins cannot afford an upset loss, but with a win, they'll be a lock for the field at 8-4. If they lose, the Penguins may not have a strong enough resume to make the field.

One of the biggest games of the weekend will be North Dakota and South Dakota State. Whoever wins in Grand Forks will definitely find themselves in the field, while also having a strong argument for a Top 16 seed. The loser will fall to 7-5 overall and be very uncomfortable on Selection Sunday. This is a must-win game for both teams.

The Hawks are 7-4 overall and have been the kings of the "quality loss" this season. They have one-score losses to Montana, NDSU, USD, and Kansas State, but they hold quality wins over Youngstown State and Southern Illinois. It's hard to see South Dakota State making the field at 7-5 with five straight losses and a 3-5 conference record. The whole body of work might suggest otherwise, but the injuries to multiple key players would tell you this isn't the same team anymore.

North Dakota Fighting Hawks running back Sawyer Seidl (9) | Scott Sewell-Imagn Images

NEC

Locks: None
Should Be In: None
Work To Do: Central Connecticut State, Duquesne

Central Connecticut State blew its opportunity to win the conference title and secure the auto bid with a loss last weekend. The Blue Devils still control their own destiny and face a must-win situation against Mercyhurst. If they were to lose, Duquesne would be in control with the head-to-head win over CCSU. The Dukes will need to beat Robert Morris and CCSU to lose to secure the auto bid.

OVC-Big South

Locks: Tennessee Tech

Tennessee Tech secured "Lock" status two weeks ago and has its sights set on a Top 8 seed. The Golden Eagles need a win over UT Martin to secure the auto bid and a Top 8 seed, but a loss would most likely drop them out of the Top 8.

Should Be In: None
Work To Do: UT Martin, Gardner-Webb

Gardner-Webb remains on the bubble after back-to-back wins over Tennessee State and SEMO. The Runnin' Bulldogs are 7-4 overall, but need some help to make the field, even at 8-4 with a win over Western Illinois this weekend. The issue with their resume is a lack of signature wins and a low SOS, but they are 7-2 against the FCS, which keeps them in the conversation.

UT Martin has no shot at making the field as an at-large bid, but remains in the picture because the Skyhawks control their own destiny. With a win over Tennessee Tech, the Skyhawks would win a share of the conference title and secure the auto bid. With a loss, the Skyhawks' season will end at 6-6 overall.

Patriot League

Locks: Lehigh

Lehigh remains a "Lock" for the postseason at 11-0 overall after dominating Colgate in Week 12. The Mountain Hawks have won by 20 points or more in each of their past six games. They may lack ranked wins, but they do hold quality wins over Penn and Yale. The committee appears to respect this team, which means they should secure a Top 4 seed with a win over Lafayette. Even with a loss, I would expect Lehigh to still be one of the Top 8 seeds.

Should Be In: None
Work To Do: Lafayette

Lafayette moved to 6-0 in conference play with a win over Richmond, improving to 8-3 overall. The Leopards have a chance to secure the auto bid and outright conference championship with a win over Lehigh. If they lose this weekend, the Leopards don't have a great at-large case with no signature wins.

Pioneer League

Locks: None
Should Be In: None
Work To Do: Drake, San Diego, Presbyterian

The Pioneer League championship race is down to three teams. Drake controls its own destiny and will lock up the auto bid with a win over Morehead State. San Diego and Presbyterian could earn a share of the championship with a Drake loss, but Presbyterian would need both Drake and San Diego to lose to secure the auto bid. Even at 10 wins, Presbyterian would not have a good enough resume to secure an at-large bid with two non-Division I wins.

SoCon

Locks: Mercer

Mercer continued to take care of business with a blowout win over Chattanooga. The Bears end the season with an FBS game against Auburn, which means they'll likely finish 10-2 overall. I would expect the Bears to make a push for a Top 8 seed on Selection Sunday.

Should Be In: None
Work To Do: None

The SoCon will most likely be a one-bid league once again. After Western Carolina's loss to ETSU, the Catamounts fell to 6-5 overall (6-4 vs the FCS) and are probably eliminated from the playoff conversation.

Southland

Locks: Stephen F. Austin

Stephen F. Austin secured the auto bid for the Southland in Week 12 with a win over Lamar. The Lumberjacks need a win over Northwestern State to win the conference outright, while keeping themselves in the Top 16 seed conversation. Their loss to Abilene Christian could keep them out of the Top 8 seed debate, but a seed between No. 10-14 seems most likely.

Should Be In: Lamar

Lamar remains in a solid spot to make the field despite losing to SFA last weekend. The Cardinals are 8-2 against FCS opponents, including wins over South Dakota and Southeastern Louisiana. Even if they were to lose this weekend, Lamar would still have one of the better resumes on the bubble. They would certainly be in the Top 16 seed conversation with a win over McNeese.

Work To Do: Southeastern Louisiana

Southeastern Louisiana narrowly escaped Incarnate Word last weekend, but it has one of the most difficult resumes to judge. If they beat Nicholls in Week 13, the Lions should make the field regardless of their resume. With a win, the Lions would be 9-1 against FCS opponents, their only loss coming against Lamar in a two-point game. They would also have a quality win over a 9-win UTRGV team. If they were to lose on Thursday, SLU would be left on the outside looking in.

Southeastern Louisiana running back Deantre Jackson (3) | Randy Bergeron (SLU Athletics)

UAC

Locks: Tarleton State

Tarleton State looked dominant last weekend, defeating North Alabama 61-0 to improve to 10-1 overall. While the loss to Abilene Christian hurts, Tarleton State still has one of the better resumes in the field with 10 Division I wins, an FBS win over Army, and a Top 30 SOS. The Texans should secure a Top 5 seed with a win over Austin Peay and have an argument for one of the Top 4 seeds.

Should Be In: Abilene Christian

Abilene Christian moves into the "Should Be In" tier after a road win over Eastern Kentucky. The Wildcats are 7-2 against the FCS, holding quality wins over Tarleton State, Stephen F. Austin, West Georgia, and Austin Peay. The Wildcats have a tricky road game against Central Arkansas, but can secure the auto bid with a win this weekend. The Wildcats will have an argument for a Top 16 seed with a win, while a loss might not knock them out because of four ranked wins and a Top 15 SOS, but Selection Sunday would be uncomfortable at 7-5 overall.

Work To Do: Austin Peay, Southern Utah

Southern Utah extended its winning streak to five games, defeating Central Arkansas in Week 12. With a win this weekend, the Thunderbirds would finish 7-5 overall with wins over Abilene Christian and Austin Peay. They would need a ton of help to make the field, but have one of the better resumes on the bubble.

Austin Peay is now in a tough spot at 7-4 overall with a road game against Tarleton State on deck for Week 13. The Govs will need to pull off the upset to make the field. They would be 8-4 overall with an FBS win over Middle Tennessee State, but at 7-5, the Govs would most likely be one of the first teams on the outside looking in.

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