CBS Sports Analyst Puts Faith in Florida Gators Against Texas

Despite the negativity surrounding the program, sports media personality Josh Pate surprisingly has the Florida Gators walking out of The Swamp on Saturday with an upset victory over the No. 9 Texas Longhorns.

“I think Florida is going to win this game,” Pate said on his podcast, "Everyone else has given up on Billy Napier. I'm going to roll the dice. I’m going to buy Florida one more time. I’m going to take ‘em to win the game outright.”

Pate has his concerns, though, about Florida’s offense. They have been the Achilles heel for the Gators through these first four games, averaging just 22 points per game, and against FBS opponents, just half that.

However, his concerns more so lie with the Gators' inability to move the chains on third down, ranking 123rd in the country in third-down conversion rate.

“Unlikely, since we have the No. 103 and No. 123 offenses in terms of third down conversion percentage,” Pate said in response to Lagway’s comments about the Gators' offense popping soon.

To win this game, they will undoubtedly have to improve in that area. They will also have to be largely better in several other areas offensively. They rank 90th in the FBS in passing yards per game (205.3), 107th in rushing yards per game (123.0) and 115th in total yards per game (328.3).

There is one other area of the Florida offense that Pate singled out, as well. Florida has lacked explosive plays in the first four games, with him citing that the Gators are 106th in explosive pass rate at this point in the season.

“I think they need to take multiple shots in this game,” Pate said. “Is it a high percentage chance? No, it is not. But if you don’t convert them, you got a no-percentage chance of winning this game.”

Moreover, the way the Gators can open up the deep shots is by committing to the run, which is something they have not really done in 2025.

“This is the prerequisite to taking your deep shots, is you got to fully commit to the run,” he said.

It was running back Jadan Baugh's lack of involvement in the offense over the last two games that had Pate confused and brought him to this point. Against the Tigers, he received just 10 carries despite the game being very close and within reach in the second half. Then, in Week 4 versus the Miami Hurricanes, Napier handed him the ball just 12 times.

“They’re just not giving him the ball. I have no idea why,” said Pate. “Why did you think it gave you a better shot for DJ Lagway to throw that many times against LSU when you could have run the ball yourself and controlled a lot more of the game?”

By committing to the run, it forces the defense to commit more players inside the box and, in turn, opens up the field further down. Couple that with the likes of Dallas Wilson potentially making his debut and the other electric freshman Vernell Brown III, and there is potential there.

Another angle that was brought up in the Florida/Texas segment that favors the Gators was the Longhorns' lack of discipline on the road. According to Pate, they are 126th in the country in penalties on the road.

“The Swamp does not make you more disciplined,” he said, “I’ll just say that.”

It is going to be a slugfest between the two. Points will come at a premium, with neither side's offense being at the level they would like. As a result, it will be even more vital that the Gators' defense continues doing what it has done throughout the season.

Kickoff between the Longhorns and Gators is at 3:30 p.m. and will be televised on ESPN.

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