Florida Eyes Mammoth Upset of Texas Longhorns

Florida is in desperate need of a win, looking to avoid its first 1-4 start in nearly 40 years with No. 9 Texas coming to the Swamp.

Florida Gators quarterback DJ Lagway is looking for a bounce-back game after three-straight poor performances. | Sam Navarro-Imagn Images

Staring the abyss of a lost season in the eye, the Florida Gators look to salvage the year, starting with the Texas Longhorns. Can the Gators upset the Longhorns?

Make no mistake, Saturday's game is another in a continuing series of prove-it moments for Florida. Yet, this variable in this one feels different, almost setting up a classic moment.

Rushing Offense

Florida faces a stingy Texas front led by nose tackle Hero Kanu. The Longhorns allow 2.1 yards per carry and less than a touchdown per game on the ground. It also doesn't help that Florida's rushing attack will be down a player with Ja'Kobi Jackson out for Saturday's game.

Does Napier give Jadan Baugh 25 or more carries to fatigue the Longhorns, making them susceptible to breakoff runs later?

Passing Offense

DJ Lagway threw five interceptions two games ago before setting a career low in games he started and finished with 61 yards against Miami, looking as bad as you will see an SEC quarterback. However, LSU does boast an excellent secondary, and Miami simply took away the deep ball.

On top of that, the Gators' receivers are too fast to ignore. Texas may attempt to hang back and allow the underneath routes, which Lagway needs to take, building a rhythm as the game continues. During the game, Lagway will push the ball down the field and catch Texas napping.

Manning Problem

Arch Manning is a dual threat who loves to actually throw the ball first. Florida can not allow him to routinely get a good throwing base. If they do, he will pick them apart, and the Longhorns will end the game early. Now, Florida actually does possess a rather stout defense, ranking fifth in the SEC, allowing just 16 points per game.

For as much arm talent as you can see in Manning, he will not complete drives. Texas scores just 75 percent of the time in the red zone. Of those, touchdowns account for 55 percent of their points inside the opposing 20-yard line. Opportunity will knock; Florida must answer.

Defining Moment

In his short stint in the Swamp, Lagway has enjoyed his share of highs. As mentioned, the LSU game served as his rock bottom, and his performance against Miami did no favors. How will he respond? With the eyes of the fanbase upon him, carrying the hopes of his program, a watershed moment arrived for him. No one wants to hear excuses; they demand results.

Prediction

Texas needs this game to avoid potentially losing three games with both Georgia and rival Oklahoma still on the schedule. Manning must play better in this game to avoid the whispers that he coasts off his heritage and familial legacy. A win in the Swamp, considering how difficult the UF football schedule continues to be, could help the Longhorns' resume with the College Football Playoff selection committee.

By every metric, Texas should walk over the Gators, en route to a clear-cut victory.

Every statistic favors them. They possess arguably better talent all over the field, facing a team that routinely gets in its own way. On paper, Florida is not at the same level as Texas.

Luckily for the Gators, the games are not played on paper. 60 minutes will help determine how the rest of the season can go. Pride in football means the world to players. More importantly, desperation and urgency matter more.

If the team comes out flat and lacks the passionate play early, realistically, that should signal the end of Billy Napier's tenure as head coach. However, if Florida starts the game aggressively and unafraid to make plays, they will make the game close. What's the deciding factor in a game that could be this close?

The crowd. You will never see a home stadium bring an untalented team a victory. This is not the movies, and it does not happen. However, history is lined with anecdotes of upsets. Saturday's game will be no different. Lagway throws two touchdown passes. The rushing attack accounts for two more.

Manning feasts on the secondary, torching them for 270 yards and two scores. Still, the back end makes plays down the stretch, giving the offense one final drive. Lagway finds a wideout on a vertical route for 20 yards. The Longhorns exhaust their remaining timeouts. Trey Smack lines it, goes through his motion, and kicks a game-winner.

Florida 34, No. 9 Texas 32