Game Preview: Florida State at Pittsburgh

Florida State got their first road win of the season on Tuesday against Notre Dame (leading to an announcement that ND Coach Mike Brey will retire after the season), and now look to get a second straight road win. This one will have to come at what’s been a house of horrors for Florida State, playing at the Oakland Zoo in Pittsburgh, a place they have only won twice in ten tries. Even FSU’s best team in recent memory lost there in 2019. How will this one turn out?

This game will be at 3pm on the ACC Network, live from the Petersen Events Center in Pittsburgh, PA.

Pittsburgh Panthers Breakdown

I thought Pitt was being a little slept on to enter the season, but I was worried about how their guards would be surrounding John Hugley. They had some shooters, but I didn't know how well they could all play off of each other. So far, they've answered the bell when Hugley was struggling to begin the season, and now Hugley is out for the season. It's a really good offense; top-45 in KenPom's offensive efficiency. They're dangerous inside the arc, respectable from 3, and do a solid job taking care of the basketball. Their defense isn't the best, but it's hard to make 3s against them, which is one of the most important factors. They're susceptible on the offensive glass, something FSU may want to key in on.

I don't think anyone expected Pitt to be 13-6 as we stand towards the end of January. They have some good wins over North Carolina, Virginia, and NC State, and they don't really have any bad losses, just a couple of bummers to Vanderbilt and VCU, who are still top-90 KenPom teams. 6-2 in ACC play is a great start for Jeff Capel, whose seat was VERY warm entering this se

It's a 4-headed guard attack for the Panthers, with all four guards in the starting lineup averaging double figures in points. Leading them is Jamarius Burton, a do it all player averaging 16.3 PPG, 4.8 RPG, 4.2 APG, all with shooting splits of 53.5/38.2/81.3. He's a player I wanted FSU to go after when he transferred away from Wichita State as a combo guard that can do everything very well, and he's showing that this season. Just a super efficient veteran guard, you can't have enough of those.

Blake Hinson is a guy that can get hot in a hurry, taking 6 threes a game and making them at 34.8% while averaging 15.8 PPG, and is the team's leading rebounder with more than 6 per game. His matchup against Matthew Cleveland should be very interesting.

Greg Elliott is the sharpshooter on the team, shooting 39.2% from deep on 5.4 attempts per game. The Marquette transfer has made a much bigger impact than I would've expected, and is averaging a career high 10.7 PPG in his first year on a new team as a graduate transfer. He can rebound a little bit, but I think FSU would prefer to try and make him put the ball on the ground and dribble/play make more.

Nelly Cummings is the de facto facilitator, but FSU would like him to take tough jumpers. He's only shooting 32% from deep on about 5 attempts per game, and shoots less than 2 free throws per game (though he's only missed one of his 29 free throws all season). His 86 total assists on the season lead the team.

Without Hugley, I'm not really concerned with their big man rotation of Federiko Federiko and Jorge Diaz Graham, they are solid rebounders and Federiko is a good shot blocker with a block rate of 8%. Nike Sibande is a good bench option as a guy that can come in and light nets up.

Florida State Seminoles Breakdown

FSU is coming off of their best game of the season with a double digit win on the road at Notre Dame. The Irish may not be great, but it's still hard to win on the road in this league. There's something to be said for the confidence it can give a team, especially when they're playing back to back games on the road in the middle of ACC play.

As we stand right now, FSU is right in the middle of the ACC at 4-4 in league play. These next four games are going to be very telling for how the rest of the season will go: at Pittsburgh, Miami, Clemson, at NC State. Those are four of the top six teams in the league as we sit right now, with Clemson having just lost their ACC game (but have lost to bad Loyola Chicago and South Carolina teams). If FSU splits these next four games, it'll set them up well for the rest of the season. Otherwise, it's going to continue being a long season.

Matthew Cleveland is closing in on Reggie Royals' record of in season consecutive double-doubles of 10, as he currently sits at 8. He's been mostly superb the last month and a half, giving the team exactly what it needs, especially on the glass. To start the season, FSU was in the bottom 10 in rebound rate, now they're recovered to at least be inside the top-300, and are allowing the second lowest offensive rebound rate in ACC play. Still nowhere near good, but it's not as abysmal as it was.

FSU has to get better at defending the 3 in league play. Currently, FSU is allowing ACC teams to shoot 40.7% from 3 against them, worst in the conference. What they have been doing well is forcing steals, with a steal rate of 7%, best in the conference.

Injury Report

Jaylan Gainey is out for the season with an ACL injury.

Cam’Ron Fletcher is out for the season with a knee injury.

For Pitt, John Hugley IV announced about a week ago that he would sit out the rest of the season for a combination of injuries and mental health reasons.

William Jeffress had toe surgery and will miss the rest of the season.

Dior Johnson was suspended for the season following legal issues.

Projected Starters

Pittsburgh

G: Nelly Cummings

G: Greg Elliott

G: Jamarius Burton

G: Blake Hinson

C: Federiko Federiko

Florida State

G: Jalen Warley

G: Caleb Mills

G: Darin Green Jr

F: Matthew Cleveland

F: Cameron Corhen

Keys to the Game

Defend Without Fouling

Historically, games against Pitt are slow trodding, foul-ridden games that continuously get FSU out of any kind of rhythm. This isn’t as much a key for this year’s Pitt team, as they’ve actually lost a majority of the games they’ve had when posting a higher free throw rate. It’s just history between these two teams. FSU wants the game to stay open, and they need Caleb Mills specifically to stay out of foul trouble. The offense is entirely different when he’s not in the game.

Offensive Glass

Pitt posts an offensive rebounding rate of 30.9%, which is slightly above average, but 5 of their 6 losses have come when they post a rate of 25% or below. FSU has had issues all season with the rebounding battle, but they’re coming off of a game where they dominated the glass. Maybe the rides are turning?

Make Your 3s

Pitt has a pretty solid 3-point defense, allowing teams to shoot just 30.6% from deep. They’ve lost 4 of the 6 games where they allow teams to shoot 32% or better from distance. FSU probably won’t get many open looks, but you have to make them when they’re there.

Game Prediction

Pittsburgh is favored by 10 points with an over/under of 140.

Pitt is a good team with no bad losses, I can’t imagine they falter in this one. I like FSU to barely cover though.

Pitt 77 FSU 69