Game Preview: Florida State Seminoles at Duke Blue Devils

Happy New Year’s Eve to everyone, hopefully we’ll have an matchup for you today as Florida State looks to upset the Duke Blue Devils in Cameron Indoor Stadium. We’ll get to it later, but I actually think FSU matches up well with this iteration of the Blue Devils in the first year with new head coach Jon Scheyer.

This game will be at 1pm on ESPN2, live from Cameron Indoor Stadium in Durham, NC.

#17 Duke Blue Devils Breakdown

As mentioned above, Duke has no more Coach K roaming the sidelines and instead has Jon Scheyer at the helm, who has done a phenomenal job recruiting and is still figuring the X's and O's out. This team is absurdly talented with five former 5-stars and three former 4-stars, just an embarrassment of riches. It's taken some time for this team to come together, though, as 75% of the roster hadn't played for Duke before this season and the chemistry hasn't quite been there yet.

What has been working well is the offensive rebounding, as this is one of the best teams in the country on the offensive glass, grabbing 38.9% of all of their misses. In two of their three losses, they've been held below 30% on the glass which has to be a key for an FSU team that is allowing teams to grab 34.7% of their misses. Matthew Cleveland, Cameron Corhen, Naheem McLeod (if he plays), and all of the guards have to be active boxing people out and contending for the rebound. Duke has four rotation players averaging at least one offensive rebound per game: Kyle Filipowski (2.8 ORBs per game), Ryan Young (3.2), Mark Mitchell (1.1), and Dereck Lively II (1.7). Dariq Whitehead has high rebound potential as well given his athleticism. They're a very physical and athletic team that is making up for not being a great 3-point shooting team at just 31.5%, though they don't take a ton of 3s to begin with.

Kyle Filipowski has been awesome for this team at 14.4 PPG and 8.9 RPG while shooting 41.8% from the floor. He's able to stretch out to 3 occasionally, but he does his best work inside the arc, and is a beast on the glass. Him locking down the 5 position is not something I expected given Dereck Lively's recruitment (more on him later). His mobility is going to be a big test for FSU's post players, and I'm curious to see how FSU defends him.

Jeremy Roach is the only other Blue Devil averaging double-figure scoring at 12.8 PPG and 3.4 APG. He's taking a lot more shots than his first two seasons in Durham, but his efficiency has dipped a little, which has to be a little bit of a disappointment. He just has a lot on confidence and knows what to do, something that is important with this many newcomers.

Mark Mitchell is by far the best 3-point shooter on this team in percentage at 45.8%, but takes less than two 3s per game. I'm expecting FSU to try and force Duke to shoot more from the outside, going under on ball screens, stuff like that. Mitchell is just a well-rounded player that can do a little bit of everything.

Tyrese Proctor has really struggled shooting the ball this season at just 34.7% from the field and 23.5% from 3. He has all the tools necessary to be a good player, but just hasn't happened yet in his young career.

Dariq Whitehead and Dereck Lively II haven't lived up to expectations at all so far, as they entered in as two of the top-3 players in the 2022 class. Whitehead had a foot injury that kept him out for the preseason and the first few regular season games and he still hasn't gotten up to speed. He's an elite level athlete who can just fly around the court, but still needs to get used to playing at this level. Lively... I have no idea what's happening. It may be that there isn't enough spacing in the offense for him to operate down low, but that's no excuse for him to just average 4.4 PPG and 3.7 RPG. He simply has to be better in the minutes he's given.

Ryan Young is a tremendous offensive rebounder and paint demon, pulling down a ridiculous 16.9% of available offense rebounds, top-15 across all players in the country. Jacob Grandison and Jaylen Blakes are solid off then bench shooters, both hovering around 37% on a combined 5 attempts per game.

Florida State Seminoles Breakdown

FSU had a solid win before the Christmas break, beating Notre Dame on Dec 21 with a close 73-72 game. There was some to be desired as far as defending the 3, but we saw great games from Matthew Cleveland, Caleb Mills, and Cameron Corhen. Cleveland in particular has been stellar the last 6 games, really picking up for the way he started the season and the loss of Cam'Ron Fletcher to a knee injury. As Jon Rothstein said, he's playing in the way someone who knows he needs to carry the team is playing. Since the Purdue game, he's been averaging 16.8 PPG, 9.8 RPG, 1.8 APG, 1.0 SPG all while shooting 50.6/53.8/76.2. That's an amazing stat-line, and the eye test is backing it up.

Duke has won 6 straight in this matchup at home, and 6 of the last 7 overall. The game in Cameron Indoor last season was a blowout against a short-handed Seminoles team, but we saw the best game of Jalen Warley's young career, as he showed aggressiveness, relentlessness, and just an all-around great game. He'll be playing against his former high school teammate in Dereck Lively II and I imagine he's going to want to show out again.

The veterans have historically had a big game in Cameron Indoor, whether it's Braian Angola and Phil Cofer in 2017, Trent Forrest and his 8 steal game in 2020, or famously Michael Snaer in 2012. The veterans usually show up because they understand the moment, so I'm looking at Darin Green Jr to have a big game in this one, especially given he kind of underwhelmed against Notre Dame.

Injury Report

Jaylan Gainey is out for the season with an ACL injury.

Cam’Ron Fletcher is out for the season with a knee injury.

Baba Miller is suspended for just a few more games by the NCAA.

Naheem McLeod didn’t play against Notre Dame on the 21st for some unknown reason. His status is up in the air currently.

For Duke, both Dariq Whitehead and Dereck Lively II missed the game against Wake Forest for non COVID illnesses, but they were practicing this week. I’d imagine they play in this one.

Projected Starters

Duke

G: Jeremy Roach

G: Tyrese Proctor

F: Ryan Young

F: Mark Mitchell

F: Kyle Filipowski

Florida State

G: Jalen Warley

G: Caleb Mills

G: Darin Green Jr

F: Matthew Cleveland

C: Cameron Corhen

Keys to the Game

Post Defense

Duke has two really good forwards in Kyle Filipowski and Dereck Lively II, and could give Matthew Cleveland (or whenever switches onto them) some issues in the post. They have the ability to stretch the floor, but with FSU’s lack of big men (which could be exacerbated if McLeod continues not to play), their plan should be to continue pounding it down low and let the big men work out. It’s a team that really struggles from 3, as Mark Mitchell is the only sharpshooter at 43% from 3. They have a couple of the guys in the 36/37% range, everyone else is 32% or below. Duke should really be planning on giving the bigs as much opportunity as possible.

The biggest thing is at the end of defensive possessions, Florida State has to finish the possession with a rebound. Duke is a PHENOMENAL offensive rebounding team and letting them get second chance points is not what you want.

Transition Opportunities

The one thing you cannot do in Cameron Indoor is let them get a thunderous dunk in breakaway chances. The place goes absolutely bananas. You need to keep the crowd out of it as much as possible, so no transition dunks, no big runs with back to back 3s… The more you limit those runs the better. On the flip side, FSU’s offense has to get out in transition as much as possible. The less you’re forced to play in the half court, the better.

Darin Green Jr and Jalen Warley

Darin Green is coming off of one of his worst games of the season, shooting just 3/11 for 8 points against Notre Dame. Veterans historically do well for FSU at Duke, and he’s the most veteran player on this roster, and I imagine he wants to make up for the last game. On the flip side, Jalen Warley’s best game as a freshman came at Duke last year, and it’ll be interesting to see if he attacks with the same relentlessness he did last year. FSU is going to need him to have a big game.

Game Prediction

Duke is favored by a whopping 17 points with an over/under of 143.5. Duke should win, but I think FSU will put up a fight and keep this in single digits most of the way.

Duke 81 FSU 70