Game Preview: Florida State vs. Miami

Florida State has won two straight games, both on the road, and now turn their attention to rival Miami, who is 6-3 in ACC play, all three of those losses coming on the road and in their last road games. Vegas expects this to be close, much closer than I would've originally thought, so we should have a hotly contested game on our hands.

This game will be at 7pm on ESPNU, live from the Donald L Tucker Civic Center in Tallahassee, FL. #PackTheTuck

Miami Hurricanes Breakdown

Miami got off to a 13-1 start this season, with wins over really good teams like Providence, Virginia, Rutgers, and NC State, all of whom are top-50 KenPom teams. Since then, they've lost three of their last five games to Georgia Tech (BAD loss), NC State, and Duke. Their two wins in this recent stretch were both at home, one over a bad Boston College team, and the other over a solid Syracuse team. The losses all came on the road (insert eyeball emoji here).

This is one of the best offenses in the country, ranking 8th in KenPom's offensive efficiency ranking, and it's in large part thanks to their terrific guard play. They're top-50 in effective field goal percentage at 53.6%, top-50 in turnover percentage at 16.4%, top-50 in offensive rebounding rate at 33.4%, top-35 in 2pt% at 54.7%, top-30 in FT% at 76.6%, and make a respectable 34.4% of their 3s, though they can get hot in a hurry.

Defensively, they're more opportunistic than anything. They're top-50 in block rate and top-80 in steal rate, but are middle of the road in 2pt and 3pt defense and are horrendous on the defensive glass. If you can take care of the basketball, you're going to have a chance to score against Miami.

Leading the way is Isaiah Wong, who was my vote for ACC Preseason Player of the Year. He's been steady and good, 16.2 PPG, 4.4 RPG, 3.7 APG, and 1.5 SPG on 44.8/35.2/82.3 shooting splits and turning it over less than twice a game despite having a usage rate of 24%. It's hard to state how good he is off the dribble, he just has a way of breaking down defenders and making them pay for giving him any amount of space. He can finish in traffic, finish with high-level 3-point shooting... really any way possible. He was just 2/8 against Duke, but Coach Larranaga announced Wong has been dealing with a sinus infection, which would explain that. I'm expecting FSU to be pretty physical with him.

Jordan Miller has taken a solid step forward from last season and is now averaging 15.0 PPG, 5.8 RPG, 2.2 APG, and 1.3 SPG on shooting splits of 52.2/35.6/81.4. He's been killing it inside the arc, shooting 58.8% on his 2-point shots. As the 4-man on this team, he's got more responsibility rebounding than most would at his size of 6'6", and he does a solid job, but he's such an efficient scorer. His biggest improvement has been at the free throw line; a career 72.4% shooter and is now shooting 81.4% from the stripe.

Despite being 6'7", Norchad Omier is a beast of a rebounder and defender, someone FSU pursued in the transfer portal this past offseason. KenPom will make a note of a player if they're a top-500 player in a certain statistic, so here's everything Omier is a top player in: offensive rating (185th) effective field goal percentage (89th), true shooting percentage (97th), offensive rebounding rate (13th), defensive rebounding rate (59th), block rate (132nd), free throw rate (258th), and 2pt% (135th). He's averaging a double-double with 13.0 PPG and 10.4 RPG, including 4.6 offensive rebounds, and is shooting 62.8% on 2pt shots. Just a hyper-efficient, high-energy player.

Nijel Pack was one of the biggest transfer wins of the offseason for anyone, but he's been just okay so far for Miami, averaging 11.9 PPG on 40.4/38.0/82.4 shooting splits. He very rarely shoots free throws, and more than half of his shots come from 3. He came in as one of the most feared 3pt shooters in the country as a career 42.3% shooter at Kansas State, but he's averaging career lows in points, rebounds, FG%, 3pt%, and steals. He's still a shooter to be respected, but he hasn't quite lived up to what they thought they were getting.

Wooga Poplar is the defensive specialist in the lineup, posting a steal rate of 4.1%, top-50 nationally. He's not much of a shooter, just 31% from 3, so of all the guards you want him to shoot the ball more than anyone else, but he knows his role.

Bensley Joseph is a good backup guard and gives them good shooting at 38.5% on almost 3 attempts per game. Harlond Beverly gives them good defensive minutes, but isn't much of a scorer normally, though his two biggest games of the season have come in the last four games, basically saving them against Syracuse with 16 points. You'll see Anthony Walker some, but that's really the only guys you'll see play.

Florida State Seminoles Breakdown

Coming off a stretch where they've won back-to-back road games, FSU is feeling a little better about themselves than they were a few weeks ago. Now they come back home to play two of the higher-seeded teams in the ACC currently, starting with Miami. FSU has dominated this series recently, winning 9 in a row, and 11 of the last 12, dating back to the start of the 2016/17 season. The lone Miami win came in Coral Gables in 2018. You can argue Miami should've won one of the games last year; it was their best team in years, and FSU's worst team in years, yet they lost each game last season by a single point.

The game in Tallahassee last year was an incredible back-and-forth affair that saw RayQuan Evans hitting free throws in the final second of the game to give the 'Noles the edge. The game in South Florida couldn't have been more different with FSU roaring out to a 43-19 lead at halftime before Miami had an improbable second half, outscoring FSU 41-18, just enough for FSU to get the 1-point win.

While FSU's chances of getting an at-large NCAA bid have long been out the window, how likely is it that they can go on a run in the ACC Tournament in March? Nothing is impossible, all you have to do is look at last year's Virginia Tech team. VT went just 19-12 in the regular season and 11-9 in ACC play, starting 2-7 in ACC play before getting hot down the stretch, going 9-2 in their last 11 ACC games and winning four straight tournament games to win the ACC Championship. FSU has been finding a little bit of a groove, could they possibly replicate this? The ACC really isn't that strong this year, with Virginia being the only "good team," but even they have lost 2 games in ACC play already, and I'm not buying Clemson right now.

Part of why FSU is finding a groove is they seem to have a steady rotation now that is used to their workload. Their starters of Jalen Warley, Caleb Mills, Darin Green Jr, Matthew Cleveland, and Cameron Corhen give this team the best shot of winning, and are playing their best basketball right now. Baba Miller joining the rotation gives them a solid 12-18 minutes, and he's only going to get better. Chandler Jackson has played really well the last few weeks and can give the team a solid 8-12 minutes (I want him to see a few more). Then you just need a few minutes from Tom House, De'Ante Green, or Naheem McLeod to have a solid 8 man rotation. It's a lot better than early in the season when they were playing with a 6 man rotation.

Injury Report

Jaylan Gainey is out for the season with an ACL injury.

Cam'Ron Fletcher is out for the season with a knee injury.

Jeremiah Bembry is expected to sit out for the season.

Isaiah Wong has been battling a sinus infection and played through it against Duke. Have to imagine he plays, though flights don't normally help with sinus infections.

Projected Starters

Florida State

G: Jalen Warley

G: Caleb Mills

G: Darin Green Jr

F: Matthew Cleveland

F: Cameron Corhen

Miami

G: Isaiah Wong

G: Nijel Pack

G: Wooga Poplar

G: Jordan Miller

F: Norchad Omier

Keys to the Game

Perimeter Defense

Miami has a guard-heavy team and can get happy from 3 occasionally. It's going to take very sound defense against Isaiah Wong, Nijel Pack, and Jordan Miller. FSU has had trouble containing dribble drives all season, allowing paint touches, and then ensuing open kick-out 3. That can't happen in this game. Keep your man in front of you, and don't let them, especially Wong, get downhill and in their comfort zone.

Use Your Size

Miami has a very small roster. Their tallest player in the lineup, Norchad Omier (6'7"), is just an inch taller than the shortest player in FSU's starting lineup, Jalen Warley (6'6"). This fits perfectly into FSU's switch-everything scheme, they're just going to have to be careful switching onto Wong and Pack. Keeping Omier off the offensive glass is going to be big though, he's top 15 nationally in offensive rebound rate. FSU needs to use their size correctly to keep Omier off the glass, and to abuse Miami on the offensive end. Post up, finish through contact, and make Miami be physical.

Offensive Efficiency

Florida State shot an outstanding 50% from 3 on the road at Pitt, something I'm not exactly expecting to continue. FSU does need to be efficient overall from the floor, though. If they can finish around 50% on 2s, 37% from 3, and a turnover rate of below 17%, they'll give themselves a great shot in this game. Caleb Mills, Darin Green Jr, and Matthew Cleveland are going to have to have big games.

Game Prediction

Miami opened as favorites by 5.5 points, with an over/under of 150.5; the line has since moved to 3.5.

I was expecting the line to be somewhere around 7.5 and would've comfortably had FSU covering the spread. Now, you really have to think about it. Miami has lost 3 of their last 5, but it's by a total of 10 points, and their two wins in that stretch were by a combined 20 points (win by 16 over Boston College carrying that). Am I actually taking Florida State here? I think I am, getting their 10th straight win in this series.

FSU 77 Miami 74

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