Game Preview: FSU Basketball vs. NC State
Florida State welcomes NC State to Tallahassee in a big game for positional standings. With 4 games left for both teams and just a game separating them in the standings, a win could put one of them as high as 5th or as low as 10th, depending on the result. The goal for FSU is to avoid playing on the first day of the tournament as one of the lower 6 seeds.
NC State hasn't won in Tallahassee since 2015, a streak of five straight wins for the 'Noles. The Wolfpack lead the all-time series 30-32, but that lead has shrunk in recent years, as FSU has won 8 of the last 10 matchups.
This game will be at 9 PM on ESPN2, live from the Donald L Tucker Center in Tallahassee, Florida.
NC State Wolfpack Breakdown (17-10 Overall, 9-7 ACC)
NC State is in its 7th season under Kevin Keatts, who has only made the NCAA Tournament twice so far and will likely not make it this season. His seat could be slightly warmer than you might think, but when you're in the same region as UNC and Duke, expectations are high.
Metrically, NC State is an average team across the board except for one key factor: turnovers. They're 7th best nationally, turning it over at just a 13.5% rate. Going up against FSU's chaotic defense is quite the contrast of styles and is likely the biggest thing to watch heading into this game.
Everywhere else as a team, they're just fine: 33.9% from 3, 49.9% on 2s, 73.2% from the free throw line, and just a 28.1% offensive rebound rate. Outside of DJ Horne, who I'll touch on next, there's no one to really worry about from distance. In fact, there are only three players who take more than two 3s per game: Horne (7.0 3PA), Jayden Taylor (4.4 3PA), and Casey Morsell (3.7 3PA, but Horne is the only one of the three shooting over 32%.
Horne is a terrific scorer at 17.6 PPG, shooting 44.2% from the floor and 43.2% from 3. He takes just as many shots from deep as he does from inside the arc, which makes him a really tough player to guard. He's a fine rebounder and passer, but his ability to score is going to be at the top of Florida State's scouting report.
DJ Burns is arguably the toughest player for FSU to deal with, standing at 6'9", 275 pounds. I think he's a little heavier than that, but either way, he's a big dude. He's not as great of a rebounder as you'd expect, with just 4.2 RPG, but is the second-leading assist man on the team at 2.6 APG and second in scoring at 12.2 PPG. His passing ability out of the post combined with his size makes him an extremely difficult player to guard. He's only had four or more fouls in six games this year, something FSU will likely try to do.
Their two other high scorers at 11.4 PPG are Casey Morsell and Jayden Taylor. Morsell is more of a defensive presence but is shooting close to 50% on 2-point shots. Taylor has recently been moved to the bench in favor of Michael O'Connell to get better passing, but Taylor is clearly the more inefficient player between him and Morsell. Both are around 30% on their 3-pointers.
Mohamed Diarra has started the last three games to give them some rebounding presence, leading the team at 6.4 RPG despite playing just over 16 minutes per game. He's actually 2nd in the nation of qualifying players in defensive rebound rate, which is pretty impressive. Ben Middlebrooks comes off the bench to give them some rebounding as well.
The only other player you really need to know is Dennis Parker Jr., who is a freshman wing with some size, but only takes about 4 shots per game. He's good about getting his hands dirty and fighting for rebounds.
Florida State Seminoles Breakdown (14-13 Overall, 8-8 ACC)
Darin Green Jr. should be coming off the bench in favor of Chandler Jackson, in my opinion, at this stage of the season. Jackson didn't have a great game on Saturday night against Clemson, but Green was actively hurting them Saturday, shooting 2/8 with 3 turnovers (0/4 from 3), and was the second lowest plus/minus on the team at -9. His contested 3-pointer when the team was on a 9-0 run to get back within 5 was one of the more frustrating shot attempts of the season. It felt like all of the momentum they had by getting to the rim and getting layups was sucked out of them with that one attempt.
Since the start of February, Green Jr. is now shooting 28.1% on 3s. If he's not hitting his outside shots, the ball sticks too much with him for him to be considered a positive asset on the floor. At the very least, I really do not see a reason to play him for 30 minutes in a game. Jackson does a better job of moving the ball around at a minimum.
Florida State also needs to be getting better minutes from their centers. Cam Corhen only had 4 points on 2/6 shooting against Clemson, while De'Ante Green and Jaylan Gainey only played a combined 14 minutes. FSU is a team that has historically gotten better production out of their bigs than you would expect, this is one of the first seasons where I've been more or less disappointed in the play of the bigs as a unit.
At the very least, the 'Noles are back to forcing turnovers at an elite level, with their last three games being above 20% after a lower stretch against Virginia and Virginia Tech. This is the only consistent way they can defend so when they aren't getting those turnovers, it's hard for them to stay in games. At the same time, they can't be turning it over on the offensive side of the ball like they were in the first half against Clemson.
As mentioned at the top, this is a big game for the standings. Florida State currently sits as the 9 seed, a game above Virginia Tech for the 10 seed, which is where FSU would not want to be. With their remaining schedule of NC State, at Pitt, at Georgia Tech, and Miami, they likely have to go at least 2-2 over these last four to avoid falling into the first day of games.
Injury Report
Cam'Ron Fletcher is out for the season with a knee injury.
Projected Starters
Florida State
G: Jalen Warley
G: Darin Green Jr
F: Jamir Watkins
F: Baba Miller
F: Cameron Corhen
NC State
G: DJ Horne
G: Casey Morsell
G: Michael O'Connell
F: Mohamed Diarra
F: DJ Burns
Keys to the Game
What To Do With DJ Burns?
Burns is a mammoth on the interior, clocking in at 6'9", 275 pounds (I think he's closer to 290, but that's what NC State has him listed at). Against Florida State's switching scheme, he's going to able to take advantage against guards and even against a lot of FSU's bigs. When FSU went against him last year, he had 15 points, 4 rebounds, and 3 assists in just 19 minutes and it felt like he had an even bigger impact than that.
I'm of the opinion that you can't switch on him unless absolutely necessary, but we all know how Florida State plays defense. Either way, they're going to have their hands full with him in this game.
Creating Turnovers
NC State is one of the very best teams in the country at taking care of the basketball, posting a turnover rate of just 13.5%. If you set their loss against Virginia as the base mark, where they turned it over at a 13.4% mark, 7 of their 10 losses have been when they have a 13.4% turnover mark or worse, with wins only coming against Boston College, Syracuse, Vanderbilt, Wake Forest, and Louisville.
Florida State has generally done a good job at creating turnovers this season, currently at a 21% mark, but they're just 3-7 in games where they force a turnover rate of 18.6% or less with only one game around NC State's mark- the Virginia loss. Whoever can play closer to their style with turnovers will likely win this game.
Attacking the Interior
Even with Burns on the interior, FSU has to not be afraid and attack the paint and the offensive glass. Create as many opportunities as you possibly can to score. Florida State has actually performed worse when they go after the glass, going 5-10 in games with an offensive rebound rate of 30% or better, but NC State is 4-5 when they allow an offensive rebound rate of 30% or better. One of those trends would have to break.
Attacking the rim is important though. It opens up the corner threes and forces NC State to sink in more than it normally would. They're fairly small on the perimeter, so guys like Jalen Warley and Jamir Watkins should be able to take advantage.
Game Prediction
Florida State is favored by 2.5 points with a projected total of 150.5.
I think DJ Burns is going to cause a lot of issues for FSU. He was one of those players last year that left a lasting impact on how he performed. Unless he gets in foul trouble early, which is certainly possible, I'm not sure FSU's switching scheme is going to work in their favor for this game. I'll take the Wolfpack in a tight one.
NC State 77, Florida State 75
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