Game Preview: FSU vs St. John's

Florida State is officially on a winning streak with back-to-back wins over Louisville and USC Upstate. Can they keep it going with a matchup against a very good St. John's team? It’s going to be a good test to see how far along this team has progressed recently.

St. John's sits 71st in NET Rankings, compared to Florida State which is up to 251st after almost dropping in the 300s a couple of weeks ago.

This game is a part of the Orange Bowl Classic, and will be at 2:30 p.m. on Bally Sports in Sunrise, FL.

St. John’s Red Storm Breakdown

St. John's enters this game with a 10-1 record, with wins over Nebraska, Syracuse, and Temple, with a lone loss to Iowa State. They’ve let Merrimack score more than they were supposed to, and only beat Niagara by 8, but whooped Nebraska by 20, who beat FSU by 17 just three weeks ago. If that’s any indication, this could be a long game for the Seminoles, but I think they’ve grown a lot these last few weeks.

This is a team that plays FAST. They’re top 5 in total tempo (14 seconds per possession), top 10 in total shots taken, and are often able to beat the defense to the rim, being one of the best teams in the country at avoiding blocked shots. A lot of that work comes on the interior, as they really only make around 5 shots from 3 per game (only at a 30.2% clip). They have two very talented forwards that operate down low and will abuse teams for leaving them alone.

Leading the pack is DePaul transfer David Jones, who is keeping his production up from last season, averaging 15 PPG and 7.5 RPG while shooting 40% from the field. He takes a ton of 3s, 6.4 attempts per game, but is making them at just 27%, compared to his 52% on 2s. If he wants to settle for 3s, you let him and live with the results. Anything is better than him operating on the interior.

Next is post player Joel Soriano, averaging 14.5 PPG and 12.6 RPG. Between Soriano and Jones, they combine for almost 7 offensive rebounds per game. This is a very good offensive rebounding team overall, which is likely the biggest mismatch they can exploit in this one. Soriano only shoots inside the arc, and I wouldn't be surprised to see FSU play the defense they did against Purdue to keep Naheem McLeod on Soriano and limit his rebounding opportunities.

Getting these two the ball are two talented, but erratic, guards in Andre Curbello and Posh Alexander. Curbello, an Illinois transfer, is struggling heavily with turnovers this season. He transferred to get more opportunity, and while he's gotten more shots, his only notable improvement has been with his defense and stealing the ball. His turnovers are up 20%, his shooting splits are mainly the same (except for 3pt%, but he doesn't really take enough to make it notable), and his assists are up about 15%, which could just come with him playing 33% more minutes. His scoring at 11.1 PPG is nothing to scoff at, though. He does a great job of breaking down his defender and attacking the interior.

Alexander is cleaner with the ball, dishing out 5.0 assists to 2.9 turnovers, compared to Curbello who has 4.7 assists to 3.4 turnovers. He's not quite as natural of a scorer as Curbello, but is a better rebounder. I generally like these two point guard lineups, but there's not enough outside shooting between these two to make it feel worth it.

There's not a ton of spacing with the Red Storm. Montez Mathis is the best percentage shooter in the starting lineup, but only shoots 2 threes per game. Off the bench you have Rafael Pinzon and AJ Storr, who are both above 35% from 3, but combine for just 5 three point attempts per game. This is a team that continually attacks the inside, and the better FSU is at defending inside the arc, the better chance they'll have.

St. John's is a very good defensive team. They force a lot of turnovers, have a phenomenal 3PT defense, and do a great job of finishing possessions with a defensive rebound. It's a tough team to score on, and FSU is going to have their work cut out for them, especially with their guards.

Florida State Seminoles Breakdown

I’ve been especially critical of Matthew Cleveland to start the season, but he’s been rock solid these last couple of games, scoring 28 points and grabbing 18 rebounds in the last two games, all while hitting a 3 in each game. FSU as a whole is 3-1 when Cleveland hits a 3, and the one loss was a close one to Purdue. I’m not saying it’s a direct correlation, but it is an interesting coincidence. He does still need to cut down on turnovers, as he’s already had 4 games with at least four turnovers.

I think Jalen Warley playing point guard to start games has helped Caleb Mills do what he does best, score. He’s a fine facilitator as a secondary playmaker, but when he’s the primary point guard he’s just thinking too much. Mills is doing a much better job of picking his spots, and the team is benefitting from having the whole backcourt being able to handle the ball well.

FSU historically wears their Turquoise N7 uniforms in this event, which they are 1-0 wearing this season. Maybe it’ll continue in this game in what would be a big win. Even though St. John's hasn’t beaten anyone too notable, they have continued to win.

Injury Report

Montez Mathis for St. John's is questionable with an ankle injury.

O’Mar Stanley for St. John's is questionable with a toe injury.

Jaylan Gainey for FSU is out for the season with an ACL injury.

Cam’Ron Fletcher is out for season with a knee injury.

Baba Miller is suspended until mid January by the NCAA.

Projected Starters

Florida State

G: Jalen Warley

G: Caleb Mills

G: Darin Green Jr

G: Matthew Cleveland

C: Naheem McLeod

St. John's

G: Andre Curbelo

G: Posh Alexander

G: Montez Mathis

F: David Jones

F: Joel Soriano

Keys to the Game

Turnover Battle

St. John's turns it over 14 times per game, but is forcing teams into 15.5 turnovers. Compare that to Florida State who is a dead even 13.2 turnovers per game and turnovers forced per game. In St. John's one loss this season to Iowa State, they had 20 turnovers while Iowa State had 12, and they’ve peaked as high as 29 turnovers this season. I’m expecting FSU to pressure heavily, but they have to take care of the ball as well. You really want to force St. John's to play half court offense as much as possible.

3-Point Shooting

The Red Storm are not a good 3-point shooting team, just 30.2%, and have as many games shooting above 40% as they do below 20%. The reason they’ve won so many games is they have a phenomenal 3-point defense, allowing teams to shoot just 29.7% from 3. Only four teams have shot even better than 35% against them. After being torched from 3 early on, FSU has rebounded to allow the last 7 team to shoot a combined 30.2% from deep, and only one team (Louisville) shot above 30% from deep in that stretch. Whoever defends from deep better will likely win this one.

Post Defense

Both of St. John's best scorers are their forwards, so it’s going to be interesting to see how FSU decides to defend them. Curbello and Alexander are below average 3-point shooters, and Mathis is a fine shooter, but his status is questionable for this one. If he can’t go, AJ Storr and Rafael Pinzon are the only respectable shooters, so the spacing in this game may get congested real fast. Don’t let their forwards kill you, and you’ll be alright.

Game Prediction

St. John's is favored by 10 points, with an over/under of 152.

FSU has been playing well so I think they can make this a game, especially if they generate enough turnovers. In the end, I think St. John's is too good of an offensive rebounding team.

St. John's 77 FSU 70

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