Something Has to Change for Florida State Basketball

Instead of writing another recap about another blowout or bad loss (FSU just was blown out 94-54 at Clemson and lost 75-69 to a bad Boston College team), let's just address what this team's issues are, because there's certainly a lot of them. Many people are pointing blame at Coach Leonard Hamilton, and even he's been fully aware of the issues on this roster, saying he shouldn't have taken so many freshmen, been more aggressive in the transfer portal, and should've just done a better job overall in the construction with this year's roster.

There’s definitely been a loss of fan support that you can feel generating. I’ve seen fans say they won’t renew season tickets if he’s still the coach, the attendance recently has been appalling (not that I can blame them, but Louisville fans still show up well for their games), and people frustrated with the schemes the team is running. As of now, I don’t think any coaching changes will happen at the end of the season, but there’s still three games and an ACC Tournament game to get through; anything could realistically happen.

Three main things have caused this brutality of a season: Early/Unexpected Attrition, Injuries, and Poor Evaluations. Let's run through these one-by-one.

Early Attrition

The staff was caught extremely off guard by John Butler's preference to stay in the NBA Draft instead of coming back for another season in Tallahassee. It really surprised the staff, and was "one of the stupidest things" they'd ever seen. I don't think it was a coincidence that Butler fired his agent the day after the draft. He'd solve a couple of issues on this year's team, mainly as an extra shot-maker and floor spacer, but has great defensive length like what they want Baba Miller to be. He's not the only big loss from last season, the staff felt very confident they'd get Malik Osborne back for another season, but he chose to go overseas instead. Even if it wouldn't make them a tournament team, having Butler and Osborne would've been huge for this team.

If you want to keep going back further, you can look at Balsa Koprivica and RaiQuan Gray leaving early, who could've made last year's team really good, which might've enticed a guy like Osborne to stick around for this year to put more on tape as a full-time starter. Every program deals with early and unexpected losses, which is why this isn't the only point in this article, but it does feel like FSU has been hit really hard, especially with their bigs, with attrition.

Injuries

I don't think there's a program in the country that has had more players miss games than Florida State in the last two seasons. If we look at the 2021-22 season, RayQuan Evans missed 4 games after the loss of his brother early in the season then a leg injury later, Caleb Mills missed 5 games to an ankle injury, Malik Osborne missed 14 with an ankle injury, Anthony Polite missed 7 with a wrist injury, Matthew Cleveland missed 2, Cam'Ron Fletcher missed 2, Naheem McLeod missed 13, and Tanor Ngom missed 11.

Then looking at this season (27 games so far): Cleveland missed these past two games against Clemson and Boston College, Baba Miller was suspended 16 games by the NCAA for one of the dumbest reasons I've ever seen, Cam'Ron Fletcher tore his ACL in December, Jaylan Gainey tore his ACL in preseason camp, Chandler Jackson missed the first 3 games recovering from a broken thumb (took him until early-January to be fully healthy), De'Ante Green has missed 8 games as he recovered from an ACL injury in high school (and arguably shouldn't have been playing as early as he was), Jeremiah Bembry has missed the whole season with various ailments, Naheem McLeod has missed games for being sick and other reasons. That's an insane amount of guys listed for an injury report. It's hard to play the style of basketball FSU wants to play when guys are constantly in and out of lineups.

There's not really much that can be done about this. The injury bug has bitten this team hard the last two seasons, and I'm somewhat confident that even if Fletcher and Gainey are playing right now, Jackson had been able to go through camp and learn the offense before the season, and Miller doesn't get suspended, I think this is at least a bubble team. Gainey especially would single-handedly solves the rebounding issue, and you're not playing McLeod nearly as much if he's out there. There's talent, they just aren't playing well, and the lack of consistency in the lineup has played a big part in that.

Missed Evaluations

This is as big of a killer as anything. A few years ago, they took Quincy Ballard as a late flier, athletic big. He transferred to Wichita State after just two seasons because he simply wasn't developing. They brought in Moroccan big man Alaa-Eddine Boutayeb with the same mindset; athletic big that can knock down shots from midrange if necessary... he left after just a semester on campus and is currently sitting on the bench for Arkansas State, having appeared in just 13 games.

Naheem McLeod was supposed to be with the team for the 2019-20 season, but then had to go JUCO for academic reasons. He only got back into FSU because the NCAA lessened the academic requirements following the COVID season, and while he's had moments here and there, that's another miss and a player I'm not expecting to be here next season.

Jeremiah Bembry is a player's tape I actually really liked, but he's struggled with a back issue that was kept on the low at the end of high school and just can't seem to get healthy this season. Sardaar Calhoun was an elite level JUCO athlete, shooter, and possessed an extremely high ceiling, but he couldn’t quite buy in and transferred after one season.

Even a guy like Jalen Warley, who has played better as of late, has not been the 5-star prospect we all imagined. His confidence has been all over the place, and I think many people are wondering if this is the best fit for him and his play-style. The same could possibly be said for a guy like Caleb Mills, who is a very talented player, but I just don't think he's a Florida State type of player.

Part of the missed evaluation is scheme related as well. Some of these guys just don’t do what FSU needs them to do. This could lead to a scheme overhaul this off-season, or a (what I think is more likely) roster overhaul.

So, with all of that said, what needs to change for FSU to be successful moving forward?

Let’s address the biggest elephant in the room: Leonard Hamilton isn’t going anywhere. At least I think. He’s as motivated as anyone to get this right, and he’s one of the most respected people in college sports, and even if this season has been horrendous, Hamilton has consistently exceeded expectations at FSU since 2016. And even for a stretch at the beginning of the decade. Part of it is FSU’s expectations for what their basketball program should be is a bubble team that sometimes makes the tournament. It’s why they hang banners for every NCAA Tournament appearance. In FSU’s 75 years as a basketball program, they’ve gotten to the Tournament 18 times, 8 of those coming from Hamilton in the last 21 years. He’s the 5th winningest coach in ACC History, and has more often than not exceeded expectations. Even last year’s team which was a disappointment, sat first in the ACC at the end of January with a 6-2 conference record before injuries piled up and it was too much to overcome. Hamilton has earned the right of at least one more year, and I’ve been told he has a “plan in place” to get this right, but anything can change.

You also have to know that Florida State likely isn’t going to pony up the money to go out and get an elite coach. They’re going to try and be cheap by either finding an assistant or a low/mid-major coach, and that doesn’t always work. The grass isn’t always greener.

Part of fixing this team is overhauling the roster, which also comes from if the system is going to change at all. This team has leaned heavily into switching everything defensively, which was to make things simpler for the bigs defensively, and it stems from the 2019-20 season when they had so much success with it, but the personnel was so much different.

While Dominik Olejniczak started games at center, they were most successful with Osborne there, a rough and physical player who could play the 4 or 5 on both sides of the ball. What he lacked in size, he made up for in physicality, positioning, and IQ, averaging 5.3 RPG across his time in Tallahassee. He could switch onto guards and be quick enough to keep up with them. The biggest key to switching everything in the 19/20 season was the guards though. They were making the offense fight through the switch instead of just passing them off like the team is doing this season. I’m still a bigger fan of switching 1-4 while the bigs hedge and funnel while the main defender works his way around the screen, but I could understand the decision.

You had a couple of really big guards in Trent Forrest and RayQuan Evans who weren’t shy at all about being physical down low to fight for positioning. You had rangy wings in MJ Walker, Devin Vassell, and Anthony Polite who would help over the top, and Polite and Walker had strong lower bases to switch onto post players as well, then there was RaiQuan Gray who could do anything and everything defensively. And there’s Patrick Williams who had an elite frame to pair with his athleticism, and he could just sky up for rebounds while locking down an opposition’s best wing scorer. It was a collection of extremely versatile defenders that could do anything asked of them. That’s not even pointing out how elite Forrest, Vassell, Polite, Evans, and Walker were as on-ball defenders on the perimeter. It’s one of the most impressive collection of defensive guards I’ve ever seen.

But they could get it done offensively as well. Forrest could put his head down and get buckets quite literally whenever he wanted, Walker, Polite, Osborne, and Vassell were all 35%+ from 3, making the defense have to respect them on Forrest and Evans drives, Williams and Vassell turned into respectable mid-range shooters off of the dribble, and Gray could be a secondary playmaker, ball handler… whatever you needed him to be.

If we take a look at that team as the gold standard for FSU Basketball (as it should be), and compare it to what we have now, what are the major differences?

Starting defensively, Jalen Warley is too soft on switches, though is a terrific on-the-ball defender at the point of attack. Caleb Mills is too slight to bang down low to fight for positioning on switches, and can be run straight through on the perimeter. Darin Green Jr is just an average defender in general; but he at least tries. Matthew Cleveland has been poor containing the dribble too often this season. Cam’Ron Fletcher is a phenomenal on-ball defender, but horrific off-ball. Chandler Jackson is scrappy and physical, I like the idea of what he can become. Corhen isn’t a good enough rebounder. McLeod ball watches too much. And the biggest thing is there is ZERO communication. There’s a point here and there, but that’s really it. No one is talking, and it leads to low energy levels, poor effort, and incorrect positioning, with no one even trying to rebound.

Clearly, what they’re trying now isn’t working, as a team that is, according to KenPom, 254th in defensive efficiency, 288th in effective field goal percentage allowed, 321st in offensive rebound rate allowed, 325th in 3pt% allowed, and 348th in free throw per range allowed (not really their fault on this one besides sending the wrong people to the line). The defense is also on the floor a lot, with offenses running one of the slowest tempos in the nation since they can just ball screen until they get the matchup they want, and are willing to be patient to get what they want. This used to be a defense that dictated the offense’s tempo, now it’s the opposite. They’re still posting a high steal and block rate, but it’s too much high-risk, high-reward, and the rewards have been few and far between.

Offensively, Warley isn’t aggressive enough and doesn’t have the confidence most of the time to just get downhill. Cleveland has stretches where he’s amazing, and stretches where he’s not touching the ball or taking bad shots. Mills has taken some of the wildest layup attempts this season I’ve ever seen. McLeod is insistent on laying the ball up instead of dunking. Jackson can take bad shots at times. Darin Green has the greenest of green lights; he’d be better with other shooters on the floor with him to space the floor, and some better playmaking that can put the ball where it needs to be. Baba Miller has been lost all season trying to figure out what he’s supposed to do. The only bright spot besides Cleveland’s improved shooting and Green’s marksmanship is Corhen, who struggled heavily early on with wild attempts, but has been much smarter as the season has gone on.

Realistically, both the system and the roster need a heavy overhaul this off-season. Looking at the roster, I’m expecting anywhere between 4-5 open roster spots for transfers/recruits (for exact details, subscribe to the NoleGameday Discord, I’ve made my thoughts available there and will continue to as we get into the off-season).

I’ve seen some people say “well who would want to come play for Coach Ham after this disaster of a season?” Let’s take a look at Pittsburgh: three of their starters transferred in this past season (Nelly Cummings, Blake Hinson, and Greg Elliot), while a fourth (Jamarius Burton) joined the season before. Entering this season, Jeff Capel was 51-69 at Pitt, I couldn’t believe he was still the coach for this season. Yet, as of the time of writing this, they’re first in the ACC. If good players are willing to go play for that and make it succeed, I have no doubt Hamilton and Florida State can replicate it.

If FSU has four or five open spots like I’m projecting, what kind of players do they need? First, they need a true leader at point guard. While I’m confident Chandler Jackson can be that guy in the future, there needs to be a veteran presence at the helm. Someone who can get a bucket when necessary, play hard defense, and get everyone in the right position. They need two 3-and-D wings (preferably ones that can put the ball on the ground and drive occasionally) as guys that can space the floor and shoot 36%+ from 3, a versatile forward that can space the floor, but play small-ball 5 if necessary, and I’d say another defensive menace as a big that can split time with Gainey, and Corhen can go back to being a 4/5. Maybe they use one of those open spots on a developmental recruit or a guy like Kris Parker, but this team needs veteran leaders more than anything. I’ve had multiple former players tell me “these guys just have no heart.” Find some guys that care and are willing to go to war.

Ideally, your starting lineup for next season looks like:

G: Transfer

G: Transfer/Darin Green Jr

G: Transfer

F: Transfer/Cam’Ron Fletcher

C: Jaylan Gainey

The biggest question is whether or not they’ll be able to find between 2-4 starters that are willing to play 20-25 minutes. Worst case they need to be good quality depth pieces, but at a minimum they’ll need to come away with two high quality starters in the portal. And it’s not like FSU hasn’t had success with transfers in the past, just look at Malik Osborne (originally at Rice), Darin Green Jr (UCF), David Nichols (Albany), I’m sure Jaylan Gainey is going to be an elite player for this team (Brown), and Fletcher has given this team quality minutes (Kentucky). FSU can do it, they just have to do it more this off-season. Take a bigger bite of the apple.

While there are still two weeks before the off-season starts, it’s already shaping up to be arguably the most pivotal of Coach Hamilton’s career, again, assuming he gets that chance. If it goes well, he’s able to ride off into the sunset how he wants. Another season like this, and we may have another living legend at the helm that has to be “forced to retire.”

Only time will tell, but something has to change for Florida State Basketball. Quickly.

Stick with NoleGameday for more coverage of Florida State basketball throughout the season

Follow NoleGameday on Twitter and Facebook