The Boom-or-Bust Potential of 2026-27 FSU Basketball

We're less than a week away from Florida State basketball starting its preseason against Mississippi State, which is crazy to say. I love that college basketball has transitioned to these preseason games rather than exhibitions against NAIA or Division 2 schools.

With the season just around the corner, here's my full breakdown of the team and what I expect of them.

Florida State has had a very busy offseason, adding five transfers from other Division 1 schools, a JUCO transfer, an international player, and they're bringing in 6 total freshmen. They only retained two players: AJ Swinton (who has a torn ACL) and Jalen Crawford.

That's a lot of turnover. Historically, the best teams rely on retention. As we saw with Michigan this season, though, anything can happen if you have the right pieces.

There was a lot of optimism coming out of the 2025-26 season with how they closed ACC play, winning 11 of their final 15 games and pushing Duke to the brink in the ACC Tournament. They ended up declining any postseason bid from the NIT, which gave them a head start on work in the transfer portal.

Nothing matters if they can't reach the NCAA Tournament, though. They got close to making it with their blazing-hot stretch near the end of the season, but FSU hasn't been to March Madness since 2021, when Scottie Barnes, Balsa Koprivica, and RaiQuan Gray led a talented team to the Sweet 16. Has FSU done enough to get back there?

What will help matters is the rule change that makes the NCAA Tournament 76 teams. While I entirely disagree that 76 teams need to make the Big Dance, it could help FSU get back in it. Let's go over the roster, talk about positives and negatives, and see if this is enough to see the Seminoles on the biggest stage once again.

While I wanted this to be a full roster breakdown, and I also wanted this to be out WEEKS ago, there is a little bit of uncertainty with the roster. Alex Steen is fighting for a fifth year of eligibility, and while his preliminary attempt was denied, he is still trying to get on the roster. Jasen Lopez's status is up in the air, as he may focus on football, but FSU has explored adding an international player if Steen's waiver isn't granted. So, just keep that in mind for the rest of the roster preview.

Mar 11, 2026; Charlotte, NC, USA; Florida State Seminoles forward Alex Steen (25) reacts in the first half at Spectrum Center. Mandatory Credit: Bob Donnan-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

Outgoing Players

Florida State is losing a lot of pieces. Robert McCray V, Lajae Jones, Chauncey Wiggins, Shah Muhammad, and Kobe MaGee have all exhausted their eligibility, and Alex Steen is still fighting for his. McCray, Jones, and Wiggins were all big reasons why FSU had success down the stretch, as they increased their efficiency.

Thomas Bassong (Mississippi State), Martin Somerville (West Virginia), Alier Maluk (McNeese State), Cam Miles (UNLV), Maximo Garcia-Plata (Incarnate Word), and Xavier Osceola all departed via the transfer portal. The big losses to me are Bassong and Somerville, but I'm not that upset that Somerville departed.

Bassong would've been great to have back. He was supposed to, but nothing was ever put to paper. His agent told him to hold off, FSU gave him a deadline, and that deadline came and went without anything signed. So, FSU moved on to another target. It sucks, but it happens.

Somerville was a decent player, but I think he has a limited ceiling at this level. The more athletic teams gave him issues, and outside of an insane game against Virginia Tech, he mostly struggled in ACC play. I thought he could be upgraded upon.

Losing all of that experience between McCray, Jones, Steen, MaGee, and Wiggins is a lot to lose, though. Experienced teams win. McCray became a go-to guy down the stretch, and Wiggins played the basketball of his life in the final 12 games or so. Has Florida State done enough to replace that?

Retained Players

As mentioned at the top, Florida State only retained two players: AJ Swinton and Jalen Crawford. Swinton tore his ACL in March at Pitt, which will keep him out for most of the 2026-27 season. Even if he comes back, he was a player who relied on his athleticism, and he may not be fully back to form until 2027-28.

Crawford is essentially a walk-on, but those don't really exist under the new roster rules. He played just 8 total minutes last season.

Feb 4, 2025; Tallahassee, Florida, USA; Florida State Seminoles forward AJ Swinton (19) takes a free throw shot during the second half against the Notre Dame Fighting Irish at Donald L. Tucker Center. Mandatory Credit: Melina Myers-Imagn Images | USA TODAY Sports via Reuters Connect

Incoming Transfers

Florida State added five players through the transfer portal, as well as a JUCO prospect: Anthony Robinson II (Missouri), Kameron Taylor (UNC Asheville), Shon Abaev (Cincinnati), Sebastian Rancik (Colorado), Cooper Schwieger (Wake Forest, Valparaiso), and Amare Robinson (Tallahassee State College).

The forwards have the ability to stretch to three. Sebastian Rancik shot 33% from deep last year, and Schwieger is a capable shooter as a center. I think Rancik is better than his 33% shows, and he was an 86% shooter at the free-throw line last year. That profiles as someone who can shoot even better from three.

Rancik is someone I'm really high on. He was only ranked 116th in the transfer portal rankings, but I think he's a better player than Chauncey Wiggins was, and he was in the mid-60s. He can put the ball on the floor, defend multiple positions, and shoot.

Anthony Robinson is a defensive demon. Having a point-of-attack defender like that can be big for a team that found a lot of success with its defense down the stretch. However, he's going to need to be better offensively.

Kameron Taylor is a proven scorer, and while some people are concerned about his three-point shooting, he shot 35% from deep in conference play. Once he's not having to play as much off the dribble, I think that number should look more respectable.

Taylor is also an incredible athlete. Luke Loucks has said that Taylor has a chance to be the best athlete ever in program history and has recorded a 45.5-inch vertical.

Abaev is a gamble, but one that's worth betting on. He's a former five-star talent from the state of Florida and profiles as a dynamic scorer. There will be some development needed, because he had some rough moments at Cincinnati, but I trust this staff to get the most out of him. FSU has experimented with him some at backup point guard this offseason, which I'm fascinated to see if that works.

Schwieger struggled at Wake Forest last year, but I don't think they were using him correctly. They didn't have a lot of spacing, but they also just didn't give him a lot of opportunity. He was a lot of fun at Valpo. As a rotational big, he should be perfect.

What I love most is the Power Conference experience from most of these transfers. Anthony Robinson spent three years at Mizzou, Rancik spent two years at Colorado, Schwieger and Abaev each have a year of experience at Power Conference schools...

That's a huge step up from last season, when Chauncey Wiggins was the only one with any real playing experience at this level. Robert McCray started his career at Wake Forest, but he played just 14 games in two seasons. I'd hardly count that compared to the 216 games of experience at Power Conference schools they now have coming in. That's more than double the amount of experience Wiggins and McCray had coming in.

Robinson has also played in a few NCAA Tournament games, and every experience you can get in that matters.

I also think Taylor and Rancik have legitimate NBA potential. The 2027 NBA Draft class is expected to be weaker, so if Rancik showcases the shooting ability that I know he has, he could be a first-rounder.

I don't expect Amare Robinson to play too much, who is the brother of Anthony, but I'll discuss that more later. He's also a decent defender, but he hasn't shown much offensive ability thus far.

Feb 11, 2026; Lubbock, Texas, USA; Colorado Buffaloes forward Sebastian Rancik (7) during a time out in the first half of the game against the Texas Tech Red Raiders at United Supermarkets Arena. Mandatory Credit: Michael C. Johnson-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

Incoming Freshmen

If you include Elisee Assui, coming from the international ranks, FSU has six incoming freshmen. That's a lot. Let's take a brief look at them.

Marcis Ponder is a behemoth of a man, standing somewhere around 7'0", 285 pounds. He's a phenomenal athlete for someone of his size, capable of defending on the perimeter on occasion, but they shouldn't be asking him to do that often. As you can imagine, he's very strong, often overpowering his opponents. He'll need to be more technically sound as he jumps to college, but he's going to make an impact right away.

Martay Barnes reclassified from 2027 to join FSU in 2026. He's a similar player to what Cam Miles was for FSU, being quick and flashy, but he's got a little more athleticism, and he's more refined as a scorer. FSU didn't add a proven backup guard in the portal, so they're going to rely on Barnes right away.

Brandon Bass Jr. is a sharp-shooting lefty and the son of 12-year NBA veteran Brandon Bass. He doesn't play anything like his dad, but at 6'4", he should be a perfect shooting guard at this level. He's torn it up in the offseason so far. He's the freshman I've heard the most about this offseason, and it seems like his ball-handling has really improved since high school.

Collin Paul is a versatile forward, comfortable with the ball in his hands, and he has the frame and tools to be a good defender. He's a little slow-footed as of now, which may make him more comfortable at power forward initially. I'm also not a huge fan of his jump shot at this stage, but that can always develop.

JD Jones, the son of James Jones, a 14-year NBA sharpshooter, will mostly be in a walk-on role, so he may not play much. He did score over 1700 points in his high school career, but he wasn't rated by any recruiting services.

Elisee Assui will be coming in from Italy, and he can fill a lot of the void that Thomas Bassong left behind. He's not as long, but he is a more refined scorer, and he's a bulldog who can guard multiple positions. He's also a little older, and this team needs some experience.

If Jasen Lopez returns, that would give them a smaller, shifty guard with some athleticism, but he'd miss the first month of the season, at least, while he finishes up with football.

Mar 12, 2026; Charlotte, NC, USA; Florida State Seminoles head coach Luke Loucks during the first half against the Duke Blue Devils at Spectrum Center. Mandatory Credit: Jim Dedmon-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

What's To Like About This Team?

Luke Loucks had specific focuses this offseason: get more athletic and get longer. He absolutely accomplished that. He has two 6'7" wings who can play on the perimeter, has a 6'11" power forward who can stretch the floor, and recruits like Ponder and Paul add to that length. Even Assui, who is listed at 6'5", has a long wingspan.

Florida State found success late in the season on the defensive end with a unique defensive scheme adjustment, and this team projects to be even better on that end because of the added length and athleticism, as long as everyone buys in.

They should also be a better rebounding team. That was arguably their biggest weakness last year, but they have two playable bigs with Ponder and Schwieger, could have a third if Steen rejoins, and Rancik is a good rebounder. They don't have someone like Lajae Jones who can be a great rebounder on the perimeter, at least on paper, but Anthony Robinson and Kameron Taylor can at least contribute.

The Seminoles also have multiple people who can create their own shot. Between Anthony Robinson, Taylor, Rancik, Abaev, Barnes, and even Bass and Assui, to an extent, they can create their own looks. Last year, it was basically just McCray, with Jones and Wiggins chipping in occasionally. Having a lot of different scoring threats makes it harder for opposing defenses to game-plan.

On paper, FSU should be better defensively and more versatile offensively.

What Are the Concerns With the Roster?

I have a few things that I'll be looking out for once the preseason starts next week, and monitoring throughout the season.

The first is the depth. I know it's great having a top 10/top 20 recruiting class, but I don't love having to rely on so many freshmen. The teams that are successful either have bona fide five-stars or are built on experience. Even Duke, as talented as they've been, can't get over the hump because they're relying on inexperience. FSU's freshmen will at least mostly be coming off the bench. That's a big difference. However, unless they majorly stagger minutes, the bench lineup is going to be mostly freshmen.

You're also relying on a big jump from Shon Abaev, who is the biggest X-Factor on the roster. If he hits, you're looking at a potential NCAA Tournament team. If he misses, there isn't another player that you can rely on right now at his position.

The roster won't be as deep as it could be. AJ Swinton will miss most of the year as he recovers from his ACL tear. Jasen Lopez will be with football until at least early December, and possibly later, and that's if he returns at all. I don't expect Amare Robinson, JD Jones, or Jalen Crawford to factor into the rotation much. That already brings the roster down to 10, and 5 of those 10 will have never played college basketball before. I'm also unsure how much Paul plays initially, but he's going to need to. That's really risky. One or two more injuries, and the season could turn downhill quickly.

Alex Steen rejoining could give them a little extra depth, which would be huge, but with how hard the NCAA is fighting these fifth-year restraining orders, I don't know how likely that is.

Second, this isn't a great three-point shooting team on paper, but I expect that to be a big focus of the offseason. Anthony Robinson is a career 31.4% shooter, and he's never averaged more than 3.2 attempts per game. I talked about Kam Taylor's three-point struggles, even if I think he's better than his 28.1% shows. Shon Abaev profiles as a good scorer, but we haven't seen him do it at the college level yet. I think Rancik is a better shooter than his 33.1%, but again, we need to see it. Of the incoming recruits, Bass is a good shooter, but can he translate that to college?

Loucks wants his teams to shoot the three well, and this doesn't project to be a good shooting team. That can always change, and I wouldn't even be surprised if they end up being better than that. As of now, I am a little concerned about it, though.

Feb 18, 2026; Columbia, Missouri, USA; Missouri Tigers guard Anthony Robinson II (0) celebrates after scoring against the Vanderbilt Commodores during the second half of the game at Mizzou Arena. Mandatory Credit: Denny Medley-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

So, What Are the Reasonable Expectations?

Florida State was just on the outside of the bubble last year, and had they beaten Duke in the ACC Tournament, they would've found themselves squarely in the mix of a weak bubble.

The expectation should be for them to at least make the play-in games since it's now a 76-team tournament. However, you could tell me everything comes together and they're one of the five best teams in the ACC, and I'd believe it. The talent is there.

You could also tell me Abaev still struggles, Anthony Robinson doesn't make the scoring jump needed, and the freshmen show their inexperience, and they could miss the tournament. I'd believe that, too.

The schedule is still tough, but I think Florida is firmly in the top half of the ACC. It shouldn't be that much to ask them to improve by three wins or so.

I think they're somewhere in the 6-8 range in the ACC, and if they do that while winning 21-23 games before getting to the ACC Tournament, they should be in the NCAA Tournament, which would be huge for Loucks in his second season. Again, I could see them being better, though.

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