FSU Basketball Looking For Statement Win Against No. 1 Florida Gators

Carrying momentum from one season to the next only means so much. Florida State is off to a 2-0 start, but it's about to be put to the biggest test possible.

The top-ranked Florida Gators come to Tallahassee on Tuesday evening, looking to extend their series winning streak to six. Florida left last season with a sour taste in its mouth after losing to Iowa in the Round of 32 as a 1 Seed.

FSU gave the Gators everything they could handle last year, despite a massive talent disadvantage, ultimately falling 78-76. It's a much more talented team for the Seminoles this year, and this time it's at home. FSU kept it close last year by turning the Gators over at one of their highest rates all year, 29 points from Robert McCray V, and Florida flat-out couldn't shoot from three.

The 'Noles will want to replicate some of that while also cleaning things up, like rebounding and their own three-point shooting.

It's the first time a team has ranked first in the AP Poll entering this matchup, but this is the third time that a top-5 Florida team will face the Seminoles. Florida State has won both previous matchups.

The first was in 2006. Florida was fresh off winning a national championship and was ranked 4th, but one of their five losses in the 2006-07 season, with Al Horford and Joakim Noah, came at the hands of Al Thornton's 29 points in the Tucker Center, 70-66.

The second was in 2017. FSU went into Gainesville and smoked the then-5th-ranked Gators, 83-66, with 25 points and 8 rebounds from Terance Mann.

Can FSU make it three-for-three in this scenario? Does Florida extend their winning streak in the series to six? We'll find out starting at 6 p.m. on ESPN 2 in the Donald L. Tucker Center in Tallahassee, Florida.

Florida Head Coach Todd Golden reacts during the second half of an NCAA basketball game against Jacksonville at Steven C. O'Connell Center Exactech arena in Gainesville, FL on Thursday, November 5, 2026. [Alan Youngblood/Gainesville Sun] | USA TODAY Network via Reuters Connect

#1 Florida Gators Breakdown (2-0 Overall)

Florida is in its fifth season under head coach Todd Golden, who has led the Gators to a national championship and back-to-back 1 Seeds in the NCAA Tournament.

They started the season with an impressive 77-67 win over Miami in Tampa last week, then handled Jacksonville on Thursday, 88-57. It's pretty similar to the same thing we've seen over the last few years from them, as their frontcourt is ridiculous, but I still have some questions about their backcourt.

Leading the way is the Preseason SEC Player of the Year and an All-American last season, Thomas Haugh. They paid him more than Florida State's entire roster to come back to Gainesville instead of going to the NBA, and it worked, though I'm not sure how good an NBA player he would be. He's the classic jack-of-all-trades, master of none player: good rebounder, good defender, good with the ball in his hands, good finisher around the rim, good passer, good cutter... He just does all of the little things well.

The big thing that teams wanted to see Haugh improve was his three-point shot. He was at just 32.6% last year, despite taking more than 5 per game. In two games, he's 6/12 from three, averaging 16.5 PPG, 8.5 RPG, and 4.0 APG.

Physical center Reuben Chinyelu also tested NBA Draft waters but decided to return to Florida. At 6'10" and 265 pounds, he's a monster on the glass and in the paint, so good at using his frame to seal off defenders to clear out the lane for a slasher or open space for himself on an offensive rebound. He's averaging 13.5 PPG and 11.0 RPG, getting three offensive boards per game.

A lot of Chinyelu's points have come at the free-throw line this season. He's so physical that teams often just foul him to avoid him getting an easy basket. Florida State has to be aware of that.

To me, the player who makes everything work is Alex Condon. At 6'11", he's an exceptional passer and offensive rebounder. If I squint (a lot), he kind of reminds me of Alperen Sengun-lite without the scoring and wicked ball-handling, because they'll set him just inside the wing on the perimeter and let him dish out passes, whether that's a cutter down the middle or a skip pass across the court.

Condon is currently leading the team in assists, is second in rebounds, and third in points at 11.5 PPG, 9.5 RPG, and 5.5 APG. He won't shoot many threes this year, but his passing alone makes him a threat out there.

Denzel Aberdeen is back in Gainesville for a fifth year of eligibility after a "failed" year at Kentucky (career-high 13.5 PPG, but the vibes were always off). He has shot poorly inside the arc so far this year, making just 3 of his 9 attempts, but he's good with catch-and-shoot threes.

I've never been the biggest fan of Aberdeen's game and think he's best served as a backup at this level, but he's serviceable and experienced.

Boogie Fland is a great defender, but offers limited upside as a scorer. He averaged 11.6 PPG last year, but shot 44.7% from the field and 24% from three. He's down to 8.0 PPG on 33.3% shooting so far this season (dealt with an illness early), but he is talented. He had 18 points against FSU last year, which was his third-highest-scoring game of the season.

The big X-factor is Urban Klavzar, the reigning SEC Sixth Man of the Year. Nearly 75% of his shot attempts last season came from three-point range. 5 of their 8 losses last year came when he had six points or fewer. He can be a little wild, but it helps bring some flash to an otherwise smooth offensive operation.

They run a pretty tight rotation. Domen Petrovic gives them some shooting at 6'9". He was a teammate of Klavzar on Slovenia's FIBA U20 team and was a productive scorer overseas. Isaiah Brown gives them good hustle minutes and is a decent shooter. Those are the only players I'd guarantee play in this game.

Florida doesn't play fast, but they play methodically. It's constant cutting, passing, screening, and rolling, and because so many different players are capable passers, it makes them tough to guard. Because of their dominance on the glass (top 30 in offensive rebound rate), they create so many second-chance opportunities. That also gives them a lot of free throws.

The Gators have shot the three well this year, but it's probably at an unsustainable level. They're just not a 40% three-point shooting team, even if they're above that right now.

I have a lot of questions about their backcourt, as I really thought they should've added another steady-handed shooter, but they felt more comfortable bringing back Aberdeen and fighting for a fifth year for him. Micah Handlogten ran out of eligibility, so that at least keeps away the waves of rebounding they had last year, but they're still an elite rebounding team.

Their defense is impressive. Their length allows them to run shooters off the line, and their size on the interior scares teams at times, forcing tough shots in the midrange and at the rim, where people try to avoid contact. They'll throw out some zone fullcourt pressures before dropping back into man, but it feels more like they want to slow an offense down rather than cause chaos.

Nov 2, 2026; Tampa, Florida, USA; Florida State Seminoles center Marcis Ponder (11) looks on during the second half against the Florida A&M Rattlers at Benchmark International Arena. Mandatory Credit: Matt Pendleton-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

Florida State Seminoles Breakdown (2-0 Overall)

I expect a big crowd on hand for this game. Luke Loucks has gone to great lengths to pack the Tucker Center, but he also knows that he needs to back it up with quality play. He can't have another Georgia situation where an SEC team comes in and runs them out of the gym.

Friday's game against Troy highlighted some of the concerns that I've had about this roster, notably three-point shooting. Some guys are natural shooters, and the Seminoles don't have a lot of them.

Sebastian Rancik has been impressive through two games, but the physicality that Florida brings will be an interesting matchup for him. Shon Abaev was great against Troy, but he's a mercurial player. He'll obviously need to be at his best in this game, but there's a world where Florida's physicality brings out some temper from Abaev.

Anthony Robinson II also just has to play well. He was good against FAMU and rough against Troy, but they need him to be a steady-handed playmaker, and in a game like this with a lot of intensity, a Tallahassee native that understands the passion being able to deliver would be huge.

All eyes will be on Marcis Ponder, who is fresh off winning the ACC Rookie of the Week. He's a beast on the boards, but he's going to have his work cut out for him against Reuben Chinyelu. He has to be smart, as he's not in the best shape. He gets a little sloppy after a few minutes of up-and-down action, and Florida is going to put him in a lot of action to make him think.

I expect FSU to run some zone in this game. Miami caught Florida off guard with zone in the second half of their matchup last week, so Loucks and his staff will throw a lot of different looks defensively.

Projected Starters

Florida State

G: Anthony Robinson II
G: Kameron Taylor
F: Shon Abaev
F: Sebastian Rancik
C: Marcis Ponder

Florida

G: Denzel Aberdeen
G: Boogie Fland
F: Thomas Haugh
F: Alex Condon
C: Reuben Chinyelu

3 Keys to the Game

Can't Shy Away From Physicality

Florida will be one of the best offensive rebounding teams in the country as long as they have the duo of Alex Condon and Reuben Chinyelu. Thomas Haugh and Boogie Fland are physical defenders on the perimeter. FSU has to be able to battle through that, and there are a few players that I'm specifically watching for it.

Marcis Ponder is as physically imposing as a freshman gets, but he's still not in the best shape. He'll be going against Chinyelu, who is built out of pure muscle. Ponder can't get sloppy and start to foul, because Chinyelu gets to the free-throw line a lot, but he also can't just rely on his size in this game.

Sebastian Rancik only took four shots in 21 minutes against Houston last year, which is probably the best match physically we can look at for him. Going against Alex Condon will be an interesting matchup, but Rancik has to hunt his shot within the offense. An 18/20 point outing while getting up double-digit shots would be nice to see.

Shon Abaev can run a little hot at times, and he'll be matched up with the SEC Preseason Player of the Year, Thomas Haugh, a lot. If he's constantly taking contact, can he be strong enough mentally to keep fighting through it?

This game has to at least be close in the rebounding margin. I don't expect FSU to out-rebound Florida, as the Gators were only out-rebounded twice last year (both were losses, Iowa and Arizona). However, FSU at least has to keep it within 5. Even though that only happened a few times last season for Florida, FSU has the size with Ponder, Alex Steen, and Cooper Schwieger to make it possible.

On that same page, FSU's slashers can't be afraid of contact at the rim. There will be contact. They've done a great job getting to the free-throw line this season, and that has to continue in this game. I'd almost expect there to be a combined 60 free throws tonight. If those favor FSU, I like their chances.

Forcing Turnovers

Florida State's defense wants to create turnovers. The best form of offense is a breakaway steal for an easy two points in transition, and Luke Loucks wants to create as many of those as possible.

So far, Florida is turning it over at a 19% rate this season. They turned it over 14 times against Jacksonville, which is pretty sloppy for a veteran team.

Florida State forced 17 turnovers against Florida A&M and then 11 against Troy. They would love for this game to be in the 13-15 range for turnovers, at least.

I do expect FSU to show a little zone defense to go towards that. Miami played a little zone defense early in the second half of that first game, and it worked. FSU will try a lot of different things in this game, and if they can force a turnover rate at or above 20%, FSU will have a chance.

Whose 3-Point Shooting Numbers Are More Real?

Through two games, Florida is a combined 22/51 (43.1%) from three, while Florida State is 15/52 (28.8%).

I had my concerns about FSU's three-point shooting entering this season, but I still expected it to be a little better than what we've seen so far. If you're going to beat a team like Florida, the threes will have to fall. A 10/25 game from deep would be a godsend, especially with how well FSU can get to the free-throw line as well. Eventually, teams are really going to start packing the paint, so they need to hit some jumpers to keep teams honest.

Meanwhile, I don't think Florida is a 43% three-point shooting team. They've done it for two games, but there will be some regression to the mean at some point. Getting Denzel Abderdeen helps with what was their biggest issue last year, but Thomas Haugh is bound to cool off from his hot start. You better hope that cooling off happens in this game.

For Florida State to win this game, they have to make at least 38% of their threes and hope Florida isn't lights out.

Game Prediction

Florida is favored by 10.5 points with an over/under of 166.5, per FanDuel Sportsbook. (Spread moved down to 9.5 after I submitted the article)

Unquestionably, Florida is a more talented team, and they're used to playing with each other. That matters in a rivalry game.

Is there a world where Florida State wins the game? Absolutely. They have enough talented scorers to make this a really fun game, and they have a chaotic defense that can cause confusion, even for an offense that has seen a lot of different things.

Florida's shooting is going to run dry at some point, but I'm not sure FSU will have a good enough shooting night to make up the difference.

I'd never love to be more wrong, but Florida is the favorite to win this game, even if I think FSU keeps it close because of their high offensive pace.

Florida 80, Florida State 75

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