Florida vs. Florida State Prediction and Odds for College Basketball on Tuesday, Nov. 10

The No. 1 team in the country is in action on Tuesday night, as the Florida Gators play an in-state rivalry matchup with the Florida State Seminoles.

Florida began the season with a tough test against then-No. 14 Miami, winning by 10 points behind a 19-point game from Thomas Haugh. The Gators then dominated Jacksonville (88-57) to remain undefeated.

Now, they’re favored by 9.5 points on the road against a Florida State team that has been impressive early on in the 2026-27 season. The Seminoles have six players averaging double figures – led by junior Sebastian Rancik (21.5 PPG) – and they’ve blown out both Florida A&M and Troy to open the 2026-27 campaign.

Still, this is a massive step up in class against a Florida team that features three potential NBA prospects in the frontcourt in Haugh, Alex Condon and Rueben Chinyelu. The Gators also brought back guard Denzel Aberdeen (who spent last season at Kentucky) to pair with former top recruit Boogie Fland in the backcourt.

Todd Golden’s team is the No. 2 squad (behind only Duke) in KenPom, and a win on Tuesday would likely keep it at No. 1 in the AP Poll for another week.

Here’s a look at the odds, a player to watch and my prediction for a big-time rivalry matchup in college basketball.

Florida vs. Florida State Odds, Spread and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Spread

Florida -9.5 (-110)
Florida State +9.5 (-110)

Moneyline

Florida: -575
Florida State: +425

Total

165.5 (Over -105/Under -115)

Florida vs. Florida State How to Watch

Date: Tuesday, Nov. 10
Time: 6:00 p.m. EST
Venue: Tucker Center
How to Watch (TV): ESPN2
Florida record: 2-0
Florida State record: 2-0

Florida vs. Florida State Key Player to Watch

Thomas Haugh, Forward, Florida

Out of all of Florida’s talent, wing Thomas Haugh may have the best chance to make an impact at the next level. This season, he’s averaging 16.5 points, 8.5 rebounds and 4.0 assists per game while shooting 52.4 percent from the field and 50.0 percent from 3.

Haugh is one of the most complete players in the country, and he has impressive size on the wing for a player that can create shots and score from all three levels.

He had 19 points to lead the way against Miami, and Haugh may be the best scoring option on this roster, especially with Aberdeen and Fland both shooting under 40 percent from the field through two games.

Florida vs. Florida State Prediction and Pick

Florida is one of the few contenders in the country that has already played a game against a top-25 team, and it passed with flying colors against a tough Miami team.

Now, the Gators take on the Seminoles, who are the No. 56 team in KenPom, ranking 50th in adjusted offensive efficiency and 65th in adjusted defensive efficiency.

Florida has not allowed a team to score 70 points this season, and the combo of Condon and Chinyelu at the rim is one of the best defensive duos in college basketball.

The Gators have been dominant in the Golden era, and they currently rank in the top-five in both adjusted offensive and defensive efficiency.

After Florida beat Miami by 10, I would be pretty surprised if it wasn’t able to handle business against a Florida State team that is going to have some work to do to make the NCAA Tournament out of the ACC.

Pick: Florida -9.5 (-110 at DraftKings)

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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