FSU Basketball Looking to Sweep Season Series Against Rival Miami

The Florida State Seminoles started ACC play 0-5. Since then, they've been one of the hottest teams in the league, winning 7 of the last 9, including 6 of the last 7. That stretch all started because of a win over Miami on the road. And now, Miami comes to Tallahassee with revenge on its mind.

Miami is coming off a home loss to Virginia, but the Hurricanes would love to make up for their few lone blunders on their resume. FSU has played its way up, so these wins they've gotten on the road against Miami, Clemson, and Virginia Tech are now just Q2 losses, but that still hurts a resume. Miami should be swaurely in the NCAA Tournament, but another loss to Florida State would help matters.

FSU has absolutely dominated this series lately, winning 15 of the last 16, including six straight. But that one win for Miami did come in Tallahassee.

This game will be at 9 p.m. EST on the ACC Network from the Donald L. Tucker Civic Center in Tallahassee, Florida.

Jan 24, 2026; Syracuse, New York, USA; Miami Hurricanes head coach Jai Lucas reacts during the second half against the Syracuse Orange at the JMA Wireless Dome. Mandatory Credit: Rich Barnes-Imagn Images | Rich Barnes-Imagn Images

Miami Hurricanes Breakdown (21-6 Overall, 10-4 ACC)

It's always nice when Florida State repeats opponents in the same season. It saves me a lot of preparation. CLICK HERE to link back to the original preview for player breakdowns.

Since losing to Florida State in mid-January, Miami has only lost two other games: a blown late lead at home to Cal on January 31st, and a back-and-forth game at Virginia on Saturday. But they know a thing or two about a close game because they've seen a bunch in the last few weeks.

Three of Miami's last six games have been decided by a single point, and their last game against Virginia was still decided by one possession. Even Boston College was only a 6-point difference. Their one "dominant" win was over North Carolina, but that needed a late-game push by Miami to make the difference as large as it was. They have become very familiar with playing close games.

Freshman Dante Allen has been moved to the starting lineup recently in favor of Tru Washington, but Washington has still been the better scorer. This is a team defined by its three-headed trio of Malik Reneau (19.5 PPG), Tre Donaldson (16.4 PPG, 5.9 APG), and Shelton Henderson (14.4 PPG). Outside scoring remains a struggle for this team, as they're last in the ACC in three-pointers made, attempted, and in three-point percentage.

They make up for that lack of three-point shooting with dominance inside the arc and by getting to the free-throw line. A lot.

Florida State University forward Chauncey Wiggins (7) and Florida State University guard Lajae Jones (10) celebrate their win against the Clemson Tigers at Littlejohn Coliseum in Clemson, S.C Saturday, February 21, 2026. | Ken Ruinard / USA Today Co / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Florida State Seminoles Breakdown (14-13 Overall, 7-7 ACC)

The turnaround that Florida State has undergone in the last month has been tremendous. They've shot up in the metrics, and had they been able to hang on against Virginia and Wake Forest, we could be having some interesting discussions about the team.

But at the very least, they're making life difficult on other teams. There's nothing like the ACC cannibalizing itself late in the season, and FSU is doing everything it can to knock other teams out of NCAA Tournament contention.

Their latest came in an upset win on the road Saturday against Clemson, their first win against the Tigers on the road since 2019. It's Clemson's fourth straight loss, which I'll address in a second, but it's 6 wins in the last 7 games for FSU, which is an impressive turnaround considering how they started.

A lot of the buzz coming out of the game was Clemson's coach, Brad Brownell, saying they didn't practice on Thursday because the mood of the team was too down. That is a WILD thing to admit when there's a big game coming up. It isn't that uncommon for teams not to practice the day after a game, though. Since they played on Wednesday, holding only a film session on Thursday, practice on Friday, and a walkthrough on Saturday would be standard procedure in most places. But to admit fully that they didn't practice seems like a sign of panic.

Florida State took advantage of that, and now they'll try to take advantage of a Miami team that is hoping not to suffer another bad loss to FSU.

Projected Starters

Florida State

G: Robert McCay V
G: Lajae Jones
F: Thomas Bassong
F: Chauncey Wiggins
F: Alex Steen

Miami

G: Tre Donaldson
G: Dante Allen
F: Shelton Henderson
F: Malik Reaneau
F: Ernest Udeh Jr.

3 Keys to the Game

ACC's Player of the Week

Robert McCray V was named the ACC Player of the Week for last week after putting up 27 points against Boston College and 29 points against Clemson, both of which were wins. Any time he has it going like that, Florida State is going to be a tough team to beat.

But winning ACC Player of the Week also puts the bullseye on his back. Miami is going to sell out a little more to keep him from getting to the basket or to his spots. He may have to be more of a playmaker in this game.

Interior Defense; Defend Without Fouling

Miami doesn't shoot a lot of threes; they're 321st in threes attempted per game and 334th in three-point attempt rate. They win games on the interior, so FSU has to keep them from getting to the basket.

FSU did a tremendous job in the first game, holding Miami to shoot 48.8% from inside. Miami is just 1-5 when they shoot 50% on twos or worse. Florida State has already done it once; they can do it again. But they have to do it without fouling. No one is shooting more free throws in ACC play than Miami.

When FSU doesn't foul and force a miss, they have to finish the possession with a rebound. Miami had 9 offensive rebounds in the first matchup, but only 5 of them were live-ball. FSU needs to contend on the glass again.

Limit Tre Donaldson

A big reason Florida State won the game in Coral Gables was that they completely shut out Tre Donaldson in the second half after he had 11 in the first. With Donaldson being a Tallahassee native, he's going to want to put up a better performance this time around. He's only finished below double-digits once, and Miami lost that game.

Four of Miami's losses have also come when Donaldson has had 3+ turnovers. I expect FSU to ramp up the pressure on him.

Game Prediction

Miami opened as the favorite by 1.5 points with an over/under of 158.5, per FanDuel Sportsbook.

Florida State is playing too great basketball for me to pick against them right now. They've already beaten the Hurricanes once this season, and even if Miami has the more talented roster, FSU has dominated this series, winning 15 of the last 16. FSU hasn't always played well at home, so they'll need to come out with better energy, but they'll get out of this one with a tight win.

Florida State 74, Miami 73

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