Louisville vs. UNC Prediction, Odds for College Basketball on Monday, Feb. 23

The Louisville Cardinals and UNC Tar Heels are set to face off in a pivotal ACC matchup on Monday night.

Both teams are sitting at 9-5 in conference play, desperate to join the second tier of teams, including Miami, NC State, and Clemson, who all have 10 conference wins on the season. Louisville and UNC are both ranked in the AP Top 25, but they have struggled to find real momentum in ACC play. The Cardinals lost to SMU last week, and UNC is 2-2 in its last four games with losses to Miami and NC State.

Let's dive into the odds and my best bet for which team will secure its 10th conference win of the season tonight.

Louisville vs. UNC Odds, Spread, and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Spread

Louisville -2.5 (-110)
UNC +2.5 (-110)

Moneyline

Louisville -155
UNC +130

Total

OVER 162.5 (-108)
UNDER 162.5 (-112)

Louisville vs. UNC How to Watch

Date: Monday, February 23
Game Time: 7:00 pm ET
Venue: Dean E. Smith Center
How to Watch (TV): ESPN
Louisville Record: 20-7 (9-5 in ACC)
UNC Record: 21-6 (9-5 in ACC)

Louisville vs. UNC Betting Trends

Louisville is 4-10 ATS in its last 14 games
Louisville is 1-4 ATS in its last five road games
UNC is 6-3 ATS in its last nine games
The UNDER is 4-1 in UNC's last five games
UNC is 15-0 in its last 15 home games

Louisville vs. UNC Key Player to Watch

Ryan Conwell, G - Louisville Cardinals

The best path to victory for Louisville in this game is to do what it loves to do, which is shoot the 3-ball and attack the perimeter of this UNC defense. That's why it's imperative for Ryan Conwell, the Cardinals' primary 3-point shooter, to have a big night. He has put up 246 3-point shots this season, hitting 35% of them. While that percentage isn't bad by any means for a guy who shoots the 3-ball as often as he does, a slight improvement in his percentage would go a long way.

Louisville vs. UNC Prediction and Pick

In today's edition of Daily Dunk, I wrote about why I'm betting Louisville to win and cover as a small favorite:

This is a great stylistic matchup for Louisville. The Cardinals love to shoot the 3-ball, ranking third in the country in 3-point shot rate. Fortunately for them, that's exactly the best way to attack this UNC defense. The Tar Heels have a phenomenal defensive front court, smothering any team that tries to attack them down low, but they struggle when it comes to defending the perimeter. UNC ranks 178th in opponent 3-point field goal percentage, allowing teams to shoot 33.9% from beyond the arc.

That means that as long as Louisville's perimeter shooting doesn't have an off day, the Cardinals should be able to attack UNC where they're at their weakest and get the job done as short road favorites. I'll lay the points with Louisville.

Pick: Louisville -2.5 (-110)

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