What should we expect from Luke Loucks' first season as FSU Basketball's head coach

College basketball is right around the corner. That sound you just heard was Florida State fans thanking the maker, because the football team went from a pleasant surprise to a dumpster fire in a heartbeat.

Luke Loucks is entering his first season as head coach, taking over for the program after Leonard Hamilton stepped away after 22 seasons in Tallahassee. It's Loucks' first season as a head coach at any level, and it's his first season as a college coach in any capacity.

Only two players were retained from last season, and that was probably a needed thing. Jamir Watkins was electric, and he was an NBA draft pick because of it. Malique Ewin was a lot of fun to watch, but didn't always have the best attitude. And while there were pieces to like, a total makeover was probably for the best.

It's an entirely new system in Tallahassee, one that will rely on spacing, pace, and a lot of three-point shooting. Last year's team shot just 31.3% from deep in ACC play. That's why a shake-up was needed, especially with the roster. So, let's meet the team that Loucks brought in for his first season (sorted by college experience once we get to the roster section), one that he said is a "pretty good team."

For housekeeping, Russian center Egor Ryzhov will not be included. Although he committed to the Seminoles, he never officially signed, likely due to a visa issue.

There will also be system expectations, projected depth chart, strengths and weaknesses, and more. So, sit back, grab some snacks, and let's get to it.

Florida State’s new head basketball coach Luke Loucks introduces himself, shares his beliefs and coaching style during a press conference Monday, March 10, 2025. | Alicia Devine/Tallahassee Democrat / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Offensive and Defensive System Expectations

Luke Loucks has talked extensively about what he wants to do on offense: play fast and shoot a lot of threes. The roster he's brought in matches that. In terms of what to look for, I think it's going to look a lot like Alabama, as Loucks has mentioned that he and Nate Oats have had some conversations dating back to Loucks' days with the Sacramento Kings about offensive ideas. Ironically, those two will meet in a preseason exhibition on Thursday, October 16th, and it wouldn't surprise me if the combined score ends up around 200.

Alabama has ranked in the top 15 in tempo and top 40 in offensive efficiency (top 20 in each of the last four) in each of Nate Oats' six seasons at Alabama. It may be asking a lot for a first time college head coach in Luke Loucks to have a top 30 or 40 offense from day one, but I absolutely expect the tempo to be up there.

Alabama has also ranked in the top ten of most three-pointers taken in each of Oats' seasons at the helm. I wouldn't be surprised if FSU touches those numbers and puts up 28-30 three-pointers every given night.

The important part will be how they create those shots. FSU has struggled the last few seasons in finding playmakers to get downhill to spray out to shooters. Even when they got downhill, they didn't always have the shooting talent necessary to make that work. I think that's changed this year.

Defensively, Coach Loucks hasn't given as much away. From what I've been told, I would expect some light full-court pressure to start. It won't be like in years past, where the pressure is there to create turnovers. Turnovers would be great, but I think this is more to just slow offenses down briefly.

From there, the whole goal is to keep the ball from getting to the paint. This isn't going to be Leonard Hamilton's style of defense, where help defenders are playing in gaps, doing everything they can to create turnovers. Loucks has avoided using the term "pack-line," but I do expect a lot of the same principles, but probably lean more to how Missouri plays defense, where there will be a lot of ball pressure at the point of attack. If they can keep drivers out of the paint, that will keep them from spraying out to open shooters. Obviously, easier said than done.

I also don't expect the Seminoles to switch on every single action like they've done for the last four seasons or so, which became a major pain point of the defense. I do think wings will switch off-ball, as that makes sense and a lot of teams do it, but I wouldn't expect Alier Maluk to be guarding point guards a lot this season (please, I'm begging).

The big emphasis on defense has been finishing possessions with a rebound, which has definitely been an issue for FSU in the past. In the last 14 years, the Seminoles have been an above-average defensive rebounding team just twice. If Loucks has his way, that'll change.

I'm more confident in the offense than the defense in this first year. But we'll talk about that more later.

Meet the Roster

Robert McCray V, 6'4", 188 pounds, Guard, Sr.

Last Season: 16.2 PPG, 4.8 RPG, 4.5 APG, 1.4 SPG, 3.4 ToPG, 42.8% FG, 32.6% 3PT, 76.2% FT

Arguably the most important player on the team, Robert McCray V followed assistant coach Michael Fly over from Jacksonville University and should now be a starting point guard in the ACC after starting his career at Wake Forest. He didn't get much opportunity in Winston-Salem, but he's going to be the primary initiator here.

Some will worry about the jump from JU to the ACC, but he had a few big games against big opponents last year: 17 points and 8 assists in an upset win over Virginia Tech, 20 points and 6 rebounds against Florida, and 18 points and 4 assists against UCF. This transition shouldn't be too much for him. And he was even better the season before.

The biggest improvement McCray has made in the last year is as a playmaker, and with his ability to get to his right hand. He's a left-handed player, and like many lefties, he over-relied on his left hand early in his career. He became much more confident last season in driving with his right hand and being able to finish with either hand.

FSU will likely want him to be a better three-point shooter than he's been the last few years, so if he can get to around 36% from deep, he's going to be a threat in the ACC. They will need him to cut down on his turnovers, though, after averaging 3.4 per game last season. I'd also like him to be a little better about finishing through contact at the rim.

Chauncey Wiggins, 6'10", 225 pounds, Wing/Forward, Sr.

Last Season: 8.3 PPG, 2.9 RPG, 0.7 APG, 43.8% FG, 36.5% 3PT, 80.6% FT

Chauncey Wiggins is the only player Florida State took who was at another high-major program, as they brought him over from the Clemson Tigers. He's also one of the few players who has NCAA Tournament experience, playing in five March Madness games in the last two seasons.

I'll be the first to admit, Wiggins has been a frustrating watch in his three seasons at Clemson, as he's 6'10" but was often playing small forward. Basketball is positionless nowadays, but it still felt like he was playing out of position his entire time there. That led to some weird spacing at times, but he's a very talented player and will surprise people with his ability off the dribble.

Wiggins should be in a more natural fit in Tallahassee, sliding in as Loucks' starting power forward. He has the versatility to guard multiple positions, and if he can expand his 36.5% career three-point shooting to more attempts, he could be a breakout player in the ACC. But don't be surprised if he has some head-scratching games here and there. And I really need him to get more rebounds than he's gotten so far in his career.

Kobe MaGee, 6'5", 207 pounds, Wing, Sr.

Last Season: 14.0 PPG, 5.6 RPG, 1.9 APG, 1.0 SPG, 2.0 ToPG, 47.2% FG, 43.9% 3PT, 75.4% FT

Kobe MaGee is probably my favorite transfer on the team because you know what you're going to get: high effort and ELITE three-point shooting. He blossomed into a 43.9% three-point shooter on nearly six attempts per game last season at Drexel, and that's why FSU pursued him so heavily. He'll need to grow in his off-the-dribble game to thrive in ACC play, but at worst, he's going to be someone that you can't leave open from deep and open spacing for everyone else.

This new system should be a perfect fit for a player like MaGee, and the jump up to the ACC shouldn't be too big for him. I would like to see him grow as a playmaker, though, as he has about as many turnovers as assists in his career.

KOBE MAGEE. 🚨#FearTheDragon🐉 pic.twitter.com/psNdhvdtWO
— Drexel Men's Basketball (@DrexelMBB) February 8, 2025

Alex Steen, 6'9", 230 pounds, Forward, Sr.

Last Season (D2): 17.9 PPG, 10.6 RPG, 1.1 APG, 1.6 ToPG, 2.5 BPG, 1.0 SPG, 56.2% FG, 28.6% 3PT, 68.7% FT

There is no bigger wild card on the roster than Alex Steen, who transfers up from the Division 2 level. There was a ton of interest in him after a standout career at Florida Southern, but what is that jump going to look like for him?

Coach Loucks said Steen is great at creating chaos whenever he's on the floor, whether that's good or bad. The lack of a three-point shot thus far in his career (12/44 over three seasons) makes it seem like he's probably a 5 in FSU's system, but he's not really tall enough to consistently play center in ACC play. If he's able to survive down low, especially defensively, that would be a huge boost to an FSU team that doesn't have proven post play.

But I have my reservations about that. He's likely more of an 8th/9th man this year unless he proves he can develop his perimeter shot or can hold up down low against other centers.

LaJae Jones, 6'7", 220 pounds, Wing, Sr.*

Last season: 10.8 PPG, 5.8 RPG, 0.6 APG, 1.5 SPG, 45.6% FG%, 38.9% 3PT, 80% FT

Jones is listed as a senior on FSU's roster, but he could *technically* have more eligibility remaining. How? He played 10 games his first season at Tarleton State, just under the cut-line for a redshirt, went to JUCO his second season, which doesn't count toward NCAA eligibility, and officially played his first full season of college basketball last season at St. Bonaventure. And he was impressive for the Bonnies. He's still listed as a senior for now, and it's likely he'll stay that way, as he'd need some waivers.

No Seminole enters the season with as much buzz as Jones, as he's apparently been lighting nets up. He shot 38.9% from three last season for the Bonnies, and there's reason to believe he could be even better this year as a shooter. He also averaged 1.5 steals per game last season, so he's shown the defensive ability on the perimeter.

It's fair to question the jump from Tarleton State to JUCO to St. Bonaventure to the ACC as a starter, but his versatility and three-point shooting are vital to the team's success, and he should be the starting 3.

Shah Muhammad, 6'11", 200 pounds, Forward, Jr.

Last Season: 3.5 PPG, 2.2 RPG, 1.5 BPG, 63.6% FG, 68.4% FT

Muhammad was the latest addition in the transfer portal for Coach Loucks and his staff. He's a bouncy 5-man who could be a great shot-blocker and lob-finisher, but he was only able to play about 12 minutes per game at UMass last season. I don't expect him to play a lot of minutes this season unless players like Alier Maluk and Alex Steen get in foul trouble.

This is where not getting Egor Ryzhov to come over is a big loss, because the depth down low is definitely concerning. If Muhammad is playing 10-12 minutes per game out of necessity, hopefully it's because he's taken a jump as a player.

Martin Somerville, 6'3", 185 pounds, Guard, So.

Last Season: 13.6 PPG, 3.7 APG, 2.9 RPG, 1.5 SPG, 1.5 ToPG, 42% FG, 40.5% 3PT, 82.6% FT

Martin Somerville won the American East Rookie of the Year last season at UMass-Lowell, and he was a dynamic scorer, averaging 13.6 PPG while shooting 42% from the floor and 40.2% from three on nearly six attempts per game.

Somerville is fearless, and that'll be a good thing to have off the bench for FSU. Again, some people will be concerned about the jump from the AEC to the ACC, but he had 9 points in his third-ever game against Gonzaga, 21 points against Saint Louis, and 22 points against UMass. Having him as another left-handed ball-handler makes FSU unique, but his ability to play either on-ball or off could give Coach Loucks some interesting lineups.

It wouldn't surprise me if Somerville is one of the three leading scorers on this team. The defensive jump may be a little alarming, but he'll be perfect as an off-the-bench scorer and playmaker. And he was one of the best players in all of college basketball last season scoring off the pick-and-roll. That'll fit well in an NBA-style system.

30 seconds of Martin Somerville looking like a fifth-year senior as a ball-screen operator (1.08 PPP on those sets this year, 91st percentile) pic.twitter.com/UEf9SdzxPc
— Tanner McGrath (@tannerstruth) January 16, 2025

Alier Maluk, 6'11", 220 pounds, Forward, So.

Last Season: 2.7 PPG, 2.0 RPG, 0.5 BPG, 1.7 FPG, 55.2% FG, 71.4% FT

If Steen is the wild-card, Alier Maluk is the X-Factor. Maluk should just now be a freshman, but he reclassified in high school to get to Tallahassee a year early, and Coach Loucks made it a priority to bring him back.

Last year had a few bright moments for Maluk, but he needed to do three things: get stronger (he's added a few pounds and looks bigger), be better about defending without fouling (4.8 fouls per 40 minutes last season), and understand college offenses better. He has an offensive bag; we've seen the highlights and scrimmages against NBA players, but he has to show that within the system.

I do expect Maluk to take a three-pointer every so often, and I think he has that in his game. But if he can't stay on the floor because of fouls, this will be an interesting season, to say the least. He should be the starting center early on, though. He has the potential to be an NBA center, but the gap between where that level is and what he showed last season is going to take a lot of development.

AJ Swinton, 6'6", 220 pounds, Wing, So.

2.8 PPG, 1.4 RPG, 42.4% FG, 36% 3PT, 56.5% FT

Getting AJ Swinton to return to Tallahassee after Coach Hamilton retired was a big win for Coach Loucks, in my opinion. He had a few bad freshman moments last season, especially at Boston College, but the potential is there. He's a high-level athlete, a good defender, and although he didn't take many threes last season, he did make them at a 36% rate.

Swinton is another player with NBA potential if he's developed the right way. If he can grow his offensive game, especially off the dribble, he could become one of the better two-way threats in the ACC. I think he's probably FSU's best perimeter defender initially.

Cam Miles, 6'2", 170 pounds, Guard, Fr.

If LaJae Jones is the player I've heard the most about overall, Cam Miles is the freshman I've heard the most about. The former Temple commit flipped to the Seminoles soon after Luke Loucks took the job, and he's had an impressive offseason, to the point where he's likely to earn minutes in a deep backcourt.

Miles is a little undersized at only 170 pounds, so I'm curious to see how much he'll play against some of the more talented teams on FSU's schedule. But if the shotmaking and shooting are as real as has been rumored, it may be tough to keep him off the floor.

Thomas Bassong, 6'8", 203 pounds, Wing, Fr.

Thomas Bassong is an intriguing young player. He has the size, athleticism, and defensive ability to guard an opposing team's best wing, but the offensive game is still a massive development. He has some real flashes, though. In the FIBA U19 tournament, while playing for France, he completely jumped over another player for an alley-oop finish.

FSU Signee Thomas Bassong with the INSANE finish in FIBA U19 play, jumping entirely over somebody on the alley-oop 😳#Noles pic.twitter.com/kqRzYzePHw
— Austin Veazey (@EasyVeazeyNG) June 29, 2025

I've said it a few times, but he reminds me of a young OG Anunoby. The challenge will be for the staff to develop him properly. I'd be surprised if he sees consistent minutes early unless he's come a long way on offense since that tournament, or if he's just too good defensively to keep off the floor.

Maximo Garcia-Plata, 6'4", 180 pounds, Guard, Fr.

The latest addition to the team, Garcia-Plata comes over to the United States after time with Real Madrid in Spain. He's more of a combo guard, capable of scoring on or off the dribble, and he has a really smooth shooting stroke.

His shooting percentages weren't the best at Real Madrid, shooting just 31.2% from deep, but he was an 86% free-throw shooter. That should be a sign enough that the shooting will continue to develop. However, with how deep the backcourt projects to be, I don't see a world where he gets consistent minutes immediately.

Feb 15, 2025; Tallahassee, Florida, USA; Clemson Tigers forward Chauncey Wiggins (7) drives around Florida State Seminoles forward Alier Maluk (21) during the second half at Donald L. Tucker Center. Mandatory Credit: Melina Myers-Imagn Images | Melina Myers-Imagn Images

Projected Depth Chart

PG: Robert McCray V, Cam Miles, Maximo Garcia-Plata
SG: Kobe MaGee, Martin Somerville
SF: LaJae Jones, AJ Swinton
PF: Chauncey Wiggins, Alex Steen (will play 4 and 5), Thomas Bassong
C: Alier Maluk, Shah Muhammad

Strengths and Weaknesses

Strength: Three-point and free-throw shooting

On paper, this is probably the best three-point shooting team Florida State has ever had. Of the 9 players on the roster with college experience, 5 of them shot better than 36% from three last season. And one that didn't (McCray) is still absolutely a threat from deep, and you still have a freshman guard like Cam Miles, who is a very capable shooter.

And then you look at free-throw shooting, they have at least six players who shot 75% or better at the charity stripe last season, four of them over 80% (could be more, but Cam Miles' high school stats are hard to find, but he shot well in every camp/AAU tournament he participated in, so add another).

With how fast this team will be playing and how many shots they'll be getting up, they should be one of the better shooting teams in the ACC.

Weakness: Frontcourt Depth

I really like Alier Maluk's potential, and Chauncey Wiggins is, at worst, an average ACC starter. But the depth behind them concerns me. Shah Muhammad wasn't really playable at UMass last year, Alex Steen is taking a big jump from D2 to D1, and Thomas Bassong may not be ready for real minutes yet.

Maybe this system will be a better fit for Muhammad, and maybe the jump won't be too big for Steen, but I'd like more definitive answers in that frontcourt, and at least one more proven commodity. That's where Egor Ryzhov not being able to come over really matters and hurts this team.

Strength: The Backcourt

If Cam Miles plays as well as I think he can, there's a lot of talent in this backcourt. Robert McCray V should be a consistent 12-14 PPG, Kobe MaGee is a knockdown shooter, Martin Somerville is a dynamic combo guard, and Miles has a lot of buzz around him. AJ Swinton can play some minutes as a shooting guard as well, if needed.

Backcourts are really important in college basketball these days, and I just so happen to think FSU has a good one. Maybe not an elite one, but one that will keep them in a lot of basketball games.

Weakness: Overall Defense

Maybe this will prove to be wrong, but I'm concerned about the team defense. There are some good defenders like LaJae Jones, Chauncey Wiggins, AJ Swinton, and Thomas Bassong. But overall, this is a smaller team that will try to win games with its offense.

Alier Maluk could blossom into a great low-post defender, and he has the mobility to defend on switches, if needed. But fouls were a huge issue for him last season. If those don't go away, it may be a real struggle for FSU this season.

Florida State’s new head basketball coach Luke Loucks introduces himself, shares his beliefs and coaching style during a press conference Monday, March 10, 2025. | Alicia Devine/Tallahassee Democrat / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Meet the New Coaching Staff

I won't make this part as long as the roster preview, but it is essentially an entirely new staff that has a lot of Florida State and professional ties. Here are some quick notes on the new coaching staff and their previous stops.

Luke Loucks, Head Coach: Played at Florida State from 2008-2012, starting point guard for FSU's first ACC championship. Played overseas for five years before getting into coaching. Quickly rose NBA coaching ranks, going from a paid video/player development internship with the Golden State Warriors in 2016 to the defensive coordinator for the Sacramento Kings by 2024. This is his first time coaching in college.

Jim Moran, Associate Head Coach: Played at William & Mary from 1998 to 2001 before playing overseas for a decade. He got his coaching career started with the Maine Red Claws (G-League), but spent most of his NBA coaching tenure with the Portland Trail Blazers from 2015 to 2021 with Terry Stotts. He's also been an assistant with the Detroit Pistons and Sacramento Kings (where he crossed paths with Loucks), and was the head coach of Portland's G-League team for the 2023-24 season.

Michael Fly, Assistant Coach & General Manager: Former student manager at Kentucky who was a video intern for the Charlotte Bobcats in the 2006-07 season. After a year interning for the NCAA, he went to Florida State, where he was the team's video coordinator from 2008-2011, crossing paths with Loucks. He then followed assistant coach Andy Enfield to Florida Gulf Coast and eventually took over as the head coach there once Enfield left for USC. FGCU fired him in 2022, so he joined Dennis Gates and Charlton Young at Missouri as the Director of Scouting and Analytics in the 2022-23 season. He's been with Jacksonville University as the associate head coach for the last two seasons before coming back to FSU.

Gerald Gillion, Assistant Coach: Graduated from Florida State in 2008, then immediately became the head coach at Northeast High School in Oakland Park, Florida, until 2013. He then got into the college coaching ranks as the Director of Operations for FIU, and then bounced around as an assistant from USF to Tennessee Tech to Samford. After that, he became a head coach at arguably the hardest job in college basketball, Chicago State, where he led them to a 13-19 record in his third season, the best season they've had in 16 years. He then left there to spend one season at Long Island University as the associate head coach before coming to FSU. Has a lot of recruiting ties in the state of Florida.

Chris Kent, Assistant Coach & Director of Player Development: Kent got into coaching with the Fort Wayne Mad Ants (NBA D-League) from 2013 to 2015, then came to Tallahassee to be a graduate assistant under Leonard Hamilton from 2015 to 2017. He then spent a year at USF before going to the NBA, working as an intern for the Chicago Bulls in the 2018-19 season, before being hired as the team's video coordinator. He then became an assistant coach with their G-League affiliate, the Windy City Bulls, for the 2022-23 season. Afterward, he moved to Portland's G-League affiliate, where he crossed paths with Coach Morann and spent two seasons there before coming back to FSU. A player development role is something that Florida State has been in need of for a long time, so this is a huge step in the right direction.

Derwin Kitchen, Assistant Director of Player Development: Played at Florida State from 2008 to 2011, playing alongside Loucks in the backcourt, before playing overseas for eight years. Having a player development team is massive, as in the past, under Coach Hamilton, that was solely the responsibility of the assistant coaches.

Justin Lindner, Assistant Player Development Coach: Was a walk-on guard at Florida State from 2016 to 2022, and was constantly praised for his mind for the game, assisting other players, and running the scout team. Has been a coach at Mercyhurst University, and also worked at SoCal Academy in Los Angeles. As someone who was in a lot of practices while he was there, this is a great addition to have someone else who can relate to the players and develop their games.

Perin Foote, Director of Basketball Operations: Was a student manager at Florida State from 2016 to 2020, then followed Dennis Gates to Cleveland State, where he was a graduate assistant. He then followed Gates to Missouri, where he was the Player Development Coordinator. Was an assistant coach at Virginia Military Institute last season under former Seminole player Andrew Wilson.

Ryan Shnider, Assistant Director of Basketball Operations: Basically, the only holdover on staff, as he has been a student manager and grad assistant at FSU since 2019.

Kelly Nielsen, Chief of Staff: Was previously the Executive Assistant and Board Relations Coordinator for the Seminole Boosters, which will be huge as Loucks tries to raise funds for the program, something he's done well so far. Nielsen has also worked as the Director of Golf Operations at Arkansas.

Ben O'Donnell, Director of Performance: Walked on at Florida State in the 2007-08 season before transferring to UCF. Has most recently been the strength and conditioning coach at Indian Rocks Christian School, but he was the assistant strength and conditioning coach for Kansas State men's basketball from 2016 to 2021

Kyle Washington, Director of Video and Scouting: Started his playing career at NC State in 2013 before transferring to Cincinnati after two seasons. Played professionally in the G-League and overseas before joining Loyola Chicago as a player development assistant. Has been an assistant coach at Iona for the last two seasons.

Where Does FSU Stack Up Against the Rest of the ACC?

College basketball experts are not high on this Florida State team. Jon Rothstein and KenPom predict FSU to finish last in the league, and plenty of other publications have the 'Noles in that bottom two or three. I won't do my usual super in-depth ACC preview because that's usually a 10,000-word project for me, but I will group them into tiers and rank them along the way.

I do think the ACC is much improved this year. For the last six seasons or so, there have only been three or four good teams per year, and sometimes finding that fourth was a challenge. I see six pretty good teams this year.

Tier 1: ACC Championship Contenders

1. Louisville
2. Duke

To me, these are the two best teams in the ACC. I was super high on Louisville going into Pat Kelsey's first season, and I think they've only gotten better. Duke is loaded with freshmen again, but Louisville has the talent, experience, depth, and shooting to be a real threat. Their transfer trio of Isaac McKneely, Adrian Wooley, and Ryan Conwell is the best trio of transfers in the ACC, they have super-talented incoming freshmen, and they brought back key contributors like J'Vonne Hadley and Kasean Pryor.

Duke will always be a threat because they're Duke, but Louisville would be my faovrite to take home the ACC crown this season. One of these two teams should be the champion, and it'd be a surprise if it wasn't.

Tier 2: Surprise ACC Contenders/Likely NCAA Tournament Teams

3. NC State
4. Virginia
5. SMU

NC State and Virginia did a much better job attacking the transfer portal overall, and they have coaches who are proven at other stops (Will Wade at LSU, McNeese State; Ryan Odom at VCU, Utah State, UMBC). Both of those teams have depth, experience, and proven commodities as coaches.

NC State probably has the best player in the conference with Darrion Williams, the Texas Tech transfer who averaged 15.5 PPG and 5.5 RPG last year. I don't love that Ven-Allen Lubin is their starting center, who struggled at UNC last season. But overall, this team has a ton of experienced talent, which matters a lot in college basketball.

Virginia's international frontcourt of Thijs De Ridder and Johann Grünloh is something I'm excited to watch. And I can't believe I just said I'm excited to watch Virginia basketball. It truly is a new era, even if they're likely to still play a slower tempo.

I like what SMU has done this offseason, too. The additions of Jaron Pierre and Corey Washington give them a nice talent influx, while they also bring back Boopie Miller, BJ Edwards, and Samet Yigitoglu.

Tier 3: Longshot ACC Contenders, But Good Teams

6. North Carolina
7. Wake Forest
8. Syracuse
9. Miami

North Carolina, I truly have no idea. Hubert Davis is kind of skating on thin ice, and I really don't like their frontcourt. Or their team in general. But it's still UNC; they still have talent. RJ Davis is gone, though, and I don't feel like they did a great job trying to replace that talent level, even if he's an irreplaceable player.

Steve Forbes has earned the benefit of the doubt, at this point. Although they lost Cam Hildreth, Efton Reid, and Hunter Sallis, they've reloaded with Nate Calmese and Mekhi Mason to man the backcourt, and they're really high on a jump coming from Juke Harris. They can be a potential NCAA Tournament team if Omaha Biliew ever lives up to his former 5-star rating.

I might be sleeping on Syracuse, which has a really talented incoming freshmen class led by Sadiq White and Kiyan Anthony, the son of Carmelo Anthony. They also brought in Nait George from Georgia Tech to be the lead ball-handler, and I was a really big fan of his last year. The only thing holding this team back is the center position, but they have a lot of talent. The only reason I'm not higher on them is that they were a huge disappointment last season, and at some point, Coach Autry has to show he can win ACC games.

Miami did a great job in the transfer portal this offseason as well, adding Tre Donaldson, Malik Reneau, and a few other talented transfers who didn't quite blossom at their previous stops. They're in their first year under Jai Lucas, who is a proven recruiting commodity. Center play, like most of the league, is a concern.

Tier 4: I Just Don't See It

10. Pitt
11. Notre Dame
12. Clemson

Pitt is a complete wild card to me. I don't know what to expect. They have some good talent, but also a lot of talent that didn't produce at their previous stops. Damarco Minor and Cam Corhen are good players, but if Corhen is your second-best player, how good of a team can they really be?

A few people around the college basketball world are high on Notre Dame entering the season. I can see some reason why, as Markus Burton is dynamite, and Braeden Shrewsberry showed some growth. But the depth is bad. They do have 5-star Jalen Haralson slated to star at small forward, but I don't know if that's enough to make up for their lack of depth. They're one Markus Burton injury away from being one of the worst teams in the conference.

Clemson has been one of the better teams in the ACC for the last few years, but they're losing a lot of talent from last year: Chase Hunter, Ian Schieffelin, Jaeden Zackery, Chauncey Wiggins, and Viktor Lakhin. The talent they replaced them with doesn't blow me away. Can Dillon Hunter fill the shoes of his brother? I don't think so.

Tier 5: I'm Not Expecting Much, But They're Not Boston College

13. Virginia Tech
14. Florida State
15. Cal
16. Georgia Tech
17. Stanford

This tier is all pretty interchangeable to me. Outside of Stanford, I don't think they can finish in the 13/14 range.

I'm pretty surprised that Mike Young got another season in Blacksburg, and they're still not that talented of a team. Tobi Lawal was huge to bring back, but the team even being this high is dependent on Neoklis Avdalas being the real deal, and he's certainly an extremely talented player. The rest of the team doesn't impress me that much.

I think FSU finds itself in this tier. I like the backcourt, the scheme, and the shooting, but the frontcourt and defense are major concerns. I also just don't think their overall talent is as high as they'll need to beat top teams consistently. Their style of play is bound to catch some teams off guard, though, so they'll win a few games they're maybe not supposed to.

Cal lost Andrej Stojakovic and Jeremiah Wilkinson to the transfer portal, and I don't love their backcourt now because of it. But I do like their frontcourt with John Camden and Miloc Ilic.

I'm kind of out on Damon Stoudamire at Georgia Tech. Baye Ndongo is a great post player, but I don't love anyone else on the roster. This is year 3 for Stoudamire, and unless Jaeden Mustaf takes a big jump, the perimeter players are very average with Nait George going to Syracuse.

Stanford's talent level is on Boston College's after Maxime Reynaud exhausted his eligibility, but Kyle Smith is a really good coach. That's the only reason that they're not last. They're going to need players coming from lower levels (Jeremy Dent-Hill and AJ Rohosy) to be as productive as they were in D2 or D3.

Tier 6: Boston College

18. Boston College

I actually think Boston College is awful. If they win more than four ACC games, I'd be surprised. Dumbfounded, even. Donald Hand Jr. is back, but they only have one other player on the roster who averaged double-figures last season at whatever school they were at. Losing Chad Venning, Dion Brown, and Elijah Strong are big losses, and they didn't do a great job of replacing them.

My Overall Expectations

I see this team very similarly to Nate Oats' first season at Alabama, who put up a lot of points, but they struggled to stop anyone in conference play. That team went 16-15 overall (didn't get to play in the SEC Tournament due to COVID-19) and 8-10 in conference play.

FSU has a brutal non-conference schedule: Texas A&M, Georgia, at Houston (basically), at Dayton, at Florida, and then they start ACC play against UNC, Duke, and NC State. I have them going 7-11 in ACC play and 9-4 in non-conference play, hoping they can pick off an unsuspecting team.

They don't have anyone as talented as Jamir Watkins or Malique Ewin, at least on paper, who can carry them to wins. However, I do like the 3-10 on this roster a lot more.

The whole point of this season is to be a proof of concept. Show the offense works for the talented recruiting class that has already committed, and show transfers that this can be a system where people can produce real numbers. They have the NBA connections and a lot of ties to the state of Florida. Let the first year be a building block, because they'll have to rehaul this roster with how many seniors they have.

I'm really excited to watch this team, mostly because there should be a functional offense after years of watching Jamir Watkins drive into multiple defenders, bad off-ball movement, bad shooters, and a lack of overall playmakers to spray out to the few shooters on the roster. FSU only averaged more than 80 PPG twice in the Leonard Hamilton era: 2016-17 and 2017-18. I'd expect this team to touch those numbers. But that should also tell you how concerned I am about the defense until we see it action.

I know some people will be disappointed by me picking them 14th, but there is a difference between a team that fights in every game vs. one that falls flat on their face half the time. One that has a thriving offense, and one that struggles to generate shots. FSU was never going to be a situation where someone could step in and win an ACC title in the first season. It's going to take time to build this program back up in the way Loucks wants it.

When Loucks took the job just seven months ago, he had the lowest NIL budget in the ACC, which is inexcusable for a school of FSU's stature (I get it's a football school, but it's ridiculous). He's done a great job of raising funds since then to even get a roster that looks like this, and he has a plan moving forward. As long as they finish around .500 this year overall and make the cutoff for the ACC Tournament, that would be satisfactory for me, and a good spot to build from.

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