3 Factors That May Determine Florida State’s 2026 season

The Florida State Seminoles enter the 2026 season with a list of unknowns, and current projections suggest the oddsmakers in Vegas don't expect much to change from a season ago. So what will define the Seminoles' success as they venture into a highly visible grey area this season?

From roster changes to what a productive season looks like realistically, here are three factors that could define what is likely a pivotal year for the 'Noles.

Can Florida State Identify a True RB1?

Nov 28, 2025; Austin, Texas, USA; Texas Longhorns running back Quintrevion Wisner (5) runs down the sideline during the first half against the Texas A&M Aggies at Darrell K Royal-Texas Memorial Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Scott Wachter-Imagn Images | Scott Wachter-Imagn Images

Florida State’s rushing attack lacked a clear identity in 2025. Four different players finished between 300 and 500 rushing yards per PFF.com, while quarterback Tommy Castellanos led the team on the ground. If the Seminoles are going to exceed expectations in 2026, identifying a dependable RB1 may become one of the offense’s most important developments.

The Seminoles brought in transfer running back Quintrevion Wisner from Texas in the offseason with high expectations. He's appeared in 38 games with 2,191 yards from scrimmage and 11 total touchdowns, bringing experience to the backfield.

However, Ousmane Kromah’s flashes as a true freshman were difficult to ignore. The rising sophomore averaged 5.6 yards per carry while forcing 29 missed tackles on just 72 attempts, adding 16 runs of 10-plus yards and 4.11 yards after contact per carry. The explosiveness is there, but pass protection, experience, and workload management may ultimately determine whether Kromah or Wisner emerges as FSU’s lead back this fall.

Can Florida State Rediscover How to Finish Games?

Nov 15, 2025; Tallahassee, Florida, USA; Virginia Tech Hokies quarterback Kyron Drones (1) has the ball knocked away by Florida State Seminoles defensive lineman Mandrell Desir (93) during the second half at Doak S. Campbell Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Melina Myers-Imagn Images | Melina Myers-Imagn Images

The 2025 Seminoles weren't solely defined by blowout losses or lack of talent. They remained competitive in several swing games. Throughout the middle portion of the schedule, FSU struggled to consistently finish drives and execute late. Losses to Virginia in double overtime, Miami by six points, Pittsburgh by three points, and Stanford by seven points further highlighted how thin the margin had become.

If Florida State is going to exceed expectations in 2026, rediscovering how to finish games may matter as much as any roster addition. Turning even a handful of those close losses into wins would’ve dramatically altered the perception surrounding the program entering last November.

With the pressure surrounding Mike Norvell's tenure at FSU increasing, the Seminoles may not need to be perfect in 2026, but they likely need to prove they can handle pivotal moments when games tighten in the second half.

What Does Progress Actually Look Like for FSU in 2026?

Sep 14, 2024; Tallahassee, Florida, USA; Florida State Seminoles head coach Mike Norvell before a game against the Memphis Tigers at Doak S. Campbell Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Melina Myers-Imagn Images | Melina Myers-Imagn Images

FSU finds itself in an unusual situation for a program just a few seasons removed from an ACC Championship. Progress in 2026 may not be defined by championships, but it needs a dependable offensive identity and to avoid late-season collapses while proving they can consistently win the games directly in front of them.

And, at a minimum, that also means bowl eligibility.

Much of that progress circles back to whoever is under center. Auburn transfer Ashton Daniels was brought in to provide experience and stability at the position, but questions surrounding Florida State’s offensive ceiling remain. Younger options, such as Kevin Sperry, could eventually push for opportunities and play a major role in determining the second half of the season.

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