ESPN Believes FSU Football Is a Bounce Back Candidate

Florida State showed improvement in 2025, but few around Tallahassee, Florida, would describe their finish as a successful season.

Still, after climbing 42 spots in ESPN’s SP+ rankings and more than doubling its win total from the previous year, the Seminoles have landed among the outlet’s candidates to take another step forward in 2026.

In a recent ranking from ESPN's Bill Connelly, Connelly predicted the Seminoles will bounce back after two disappointing campaigns, yet acknowledged that the expectations surrounding FSU and head coach Mike Norvell are nearly impossible to meet.

Florida State's Rebound Comes With a Glaring Caveat

Nov 1, 2025; Tallahassee, Florida, USA; Florida State Seminoles head coach Mike Norvell looks on before the game against the Wake Forest Demon Deacons at Doak S. Campbell Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Melina Myers-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

Connelly pointed out the disconnect between Florida State’s measurable improvement and how the 2025 campaign was received in Tallahassee, Florida.

The Seminoles won three more games and climbed 42 spots in SP+, but a 5–7 finish still resulted in a second consecutive losing season for a program that went 13–1 just two years earlier.

"Technically, anytime you improve by three wins and 42 spots in SP+, you have pulled off an excellent rebound season," Connelly wrote. "And technically, going 5-7 just two years after you went 13-1 is never going to be anything but massively disappointing. It's impossible to set expectations for Mike Norvell and FSU."

The numbers moved in the right direction, but they did little to change the perception of another disappointing season.

"I'm guessing FSU fans wouldn't describe anything about the 2025 season as a "breakthrough," but the Seminoles technically qualified for the list with a decent-sized rebound after 2024's all-time collapse," Connelly continued "And they should improve further this fall, even if that's not saying just a ton. The Ashton Daniels-to-Duce Robinson pitch-and-catch combo should be fun, and the defensive front six should be solid. That Mike Norvell had to rebuild his offensive line again is scary, though."

Florida State will have little time to prove whether that projection is meaningful. The Seminoles open conference play at home against SMU before traveling to face Alabama two weeks later, which is a tall task for a program still aiming to regain its footing.

FSU's Early 2025 Buzz Proved Misleading

Aug 30, 2025; Tallahassee, Florida, USA; Florida State Seminoles quarterback Tommy Castellanos (1) loses his footing against Alabama Crimson Tide linebacker Jah-Marien Latham (20) during the second half at Doak S. Campbell Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Melina Myers-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

Florida State learned a year ago that September momentum does not necessarily translate into a successful year.

SMU should provide the first look at Daniels and the rebuilt offensive line, while the trip to Tuscaloosa will test an FSU program that went winless on the road last season. But another early upset will mean little if Florida State cannot carry that success beyond September.

FSU started the 2025 season with blazing speed, toppling Alabama, and entered their first conference matchup 3-0.

But their double-overtime loss to Virginia on the road sparked a four-game losing streak as the season (and bowl eligibility) slipped away from the Seminoles.

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