FSU Football Opens as Slight Underdogs in 2026 ACC Opener

Spring ball is over, as college football fans look ahead to what should be another season filled with upsets, cheering crowds, and that one guy getting returned to his tailgate after being thrown out after wandering into the marching band formation and fully committing like he’d been there all year.

Football is almost back, kind of. But that hasn't stopped the oddsmakers in Vegas from attempting to predict what turbulent times 2026 will unveil. College football's opening weekend presents some interesting matchups. Clemson at LSU, Louisville at Ole Miss, and a massively favored Notre Dame heading to Camp Randall Stadium to take on the Wisconsin Badgers.

One game that has gone under the radar is Florida State's ACC opener against the SMU Mustangs, a matchup that FSU fans would like to avenge, given their last meeting.

Early Odds Predict an FSU Loss, but it is Close

Sep 28, 2024; Dallas, Texas, USA; Florida State Seminoles running back Lawrance Toafili (9) in action during the game between the Southern Methodist Mustangs and the Florida State Seminoles at Gerald J. Ford Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jerome Miron-Imagn Images | Jerome Miron-Imagn Images

The last time the two teams met was in SMU's inaugural ACC season. The Mustangs won at home 42-16, which only prolonged a losing streak that saw the Seminoles finish 2-10 in 2024.

This time around, SMU enters Doak Campbell Stadium to kick off ACC play on September 7 as slight favorites. DraftKings currently has the Seminoles as 2.5-point underdogs, with an over/under of 52.5. There are a few things that make this spread interesting, given their last outing, and the potential for Florida State to be looking ahead at the Alabama Crimson Tide the following week.

SMU quarterback Kevin Jennings had a field day with the Seminoles last go around, throwing for 254 yards and three scores. FSU quarterback DJ Uiagalelei all but sealed the Garnet and Gold's fate with a fourth-quarter pick-six in Dallas.

A Different Look, Same Stakes in ACC Opener

Nov 29, 2025; Berkeley, California, USA; Southern Methodist Mustangs quarterback Kevin Jennings (7) during the fourth quarter against the California Golden Bears at California Memorial Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Darren Yamashita-Imagn Images | Darren Yamashita-Imagn Images

Jennings will be returning for his senior year, and Florida State will have Auburn transfer Ashton Daniels under center alongside a newcomer at nearly every piece of offensive production. Questions remain for the Mustangs' running back room as they are projected to use a split backfield with Cal transfer Kendrick Raphael, Dramekco Green, and Derrick McFall.

The drastic shift a roster can undergo in just two years likely has oddsmakers weighing both teams carefully when setting these lines. While it'll be SMU's first matchup of the season, FSU will get a warm-up game against New Mexico State.

An early loss for FSU could derail what is likely the most pivotal season in the better part of a decade.

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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