FSU Football Predicted To Pull Off Satisfying Upset Over No. 19 SMU

The Florida State Seminoles have gone down a tough road since the beginning of the 2024 season. Even through the misery of 7-17, the Seminoles still found a way to upset No. 8 Alabama.

That game wasn't even really close. Florida State built a 24-7 advantage and held off the Crimson Tide 31-17. The Seminoles surprised Alabama with a few wrinkles on offense and were relentlessly physical on defense.

Another early-season shocker is within grasp as Florida State prepares to host No. 19 SMU. This isn't an opening game for the Seminoles like it was against Alabama last year. However, the program didn't have to reveal all of its cards against New Mexico State.

On the other end, SMU hasn't played against a real opponent yet. The Mustangs are promising but won't know exactly how all of their pieces fit together until they are tested by someone else.

Even with the differences between the programs over the last two seasons, Florida State is only a 3-point underdog entering the game, which means anything can happen on a weekend that has already delivered some wacky results.

FSU Predicted To Upset SMU

Florida State Seminoles head coach Mike Norvell watches the replay. The Florida State Seminoles defeated the New Mexico State Aggies 34-17 at Doak Campbell Stadium on Saturday, Aug. 29, 2026. | USA TODAY Network via Reuters Connect

The Athletic's Manny Navarro made a variety of predictions leading up to Week 1. Navarro believes the Mustangs are on upset alert, even though FSU's win over New Mexico State wasn't very impressive.

The longtime college football writer foresees the Seminoles relying on the ground attack.

"Florida State’s 34-17 win over New Mexico State did nothing to slow the Mike Norvell hate among Seminoles fans," Navarro wrote. "The FSU head coach will make a more persuasive case against SMU by pounding Ousmane Kromah, Samuel Singleton Jr. and Quintrevion Wisner into — and through — the line of scrimmage."

Florida State's defense will have to be much more in sync to have any chance at limiting SMU quarterback Kevin Jennings.

"Also, Tony White’s defense didn’t look good defending the pass last week, but Kevin Jennings’ jammed finger slows down SMU’s passing game and helps this FSU unit look better," Navarro wrote."

This game is expected to be pretty close. Navarro called his shot in favor of the Seminoles, predicting Ashton Daniels to get Florida State into field goal range and kicker Gabe Panikowski to deliver the victory.

That would be an ending any Seminole fan would take in an instant.

"QB Ashton Daniels supplies one well-timed scramble, and Florida State’s imported kicker Gabe Panikowski boots the winning field goal," Navarro wrote. "The Seminoles earn Norvell an early-season upset over a ranked team for the second consecutive year."

Florida State opens ACC play against SMU on Monday, September 7. Kickoff is scheduled for 7:30 p.m. ET on ESPN.

The Seminoles have never beaten the Mustangs on the football field, falling in their only previous matchup.

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