FSU Football Gets Reality Check In Florida SEC Schedule Analytics Model

Coming off an ACC Championship run in 2023, the Florida State Seminoles entered 2024 with double-digit win expectations before opening at 7.5 in 2025. Now, the conversation has shifted again.

From Jorts to Jameis, the contrast between the two programs has long defined the rivalry, and this season is no different. The Seminoles are projected to finish with 6.5 wins in 2026 and will face a schedule that includes rivals Miami and Florida, along with a Week 3 home-and-home finale against Alabama.

Pitting the two against each other, it begs the question: What if the schedules were reversed?

Former FanDuel President Projects FSU on UF’s Schedule

Nov 29, 2025; Gainesville, Florida, USA; Florida State Seminoles offensive lineman Luke Petitbon (51) waits to the snap the ball while Florida Gators linebacker Jake Xeller (50) defends during the second half at Ben Hill Griffin Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Matt Pendleton-Imagn Images | Matt Pendleton-Imagn Images

ESPN's Josh Pate asked FanDuel's Mike Raffensperger to predict the scenario, and it wasn't positive for FSU. Given UF's current lineup, the Seminoles landed just out of bowl eligibility at 4.5 total.

"If we change nothing about Florida State's team, but we give them Florida's schedule this year, their over-under win total would be 4.5 instead of 6.5," Raffensperger said. "Which would be the second-lowest in the entire SEC, ahead of only Arkansas. So that's our entry point for the 2026 season.”

FSU’s o/u win total is 6.5

I asked @FDSportsbook sources what it would be if they played Florida’s schedule

Not good pic.twitter.com/iTbJgizKRQ
— Josh Pate (@JoshPateCFB) April 17, 2026

Per College Football News, Florida has the No. 5 strength of schedule this season, with tough games for UF, including away matchups against Georgia, Texas, and Oklahoma, as well as hosting Campbell and Kentucky. Still, some of those hypothetical matchups would be fun to watch.

Florida State landed at No. 45, with four teams on its schedule listed in ESPN.com’s early preseason Top 25, including Louisville (No. 21), SMU (No. 22), Alabama (No. 16), and Miami (No. 7).

Florida State's season kicks off against New Mexico State on August 29 and opens ACC play against SMU on September 7.

Florida State's 2026 Schedule

Oct 7, 2017; Tallahassee, FL, USA; View of a Florida State Seminoles helmet on the field before the game against the Miami Hurricanes at Doak Campbell Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Melina Vastola-Imagn Images | Melina Vastola-Imagn Images

Saturday, August 29 vs. New Mexico State - Tallahassee

Monday, September 7 vs. SMU – Tallahassee

Saturday, September 19 at Alabama – Tuscaloosa, Ala.

Saturday, September 26 vs. Central Arkansas – Tallahassee (Family Weekend/Hall of Fame)

Saturday, October 3 vs. Virginia – Tallahassee (Cancer Awareness)

Friday, October 9 at Louisville – Louisville, Ky.

Saturday, October 17 at Miami – Miami Gardens, Fla.

Saturday, October 31 vs. Clemson – Tallahassee (Military Appreciation)

Saturday, November 7 at Boston College – Chestnut Hill, Mass.

Saturday, November 13 at Pitt – Pittsburgh, Pa.

Saturday, November 21 vs. NC State – Tallahassee (Homecoming/Seminole Heritage/Athlete Alumni Reunion)

Friday, November 27 vs. Florida – Tallahassee

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