FSU Football Set For Tough Challenge Against Virginia Cavaliers

Florida State is back home to start the meat of the ACC schedule, with Virginia coming to Tallahassee on Saturday at 3:30 p.m. EST.

This game is going to come down to one specific thing, and that's Florida State's defense. Given how poorly they've started this season, that may be a mistake.

We'll get into the specifics, but Florida State really sucked any positive momentum out of the building last week when they only beat FCS Central Arkansas 34-7. West Florida was able to beat them 42-14, so for FSU to only score 34 measly points is borderline embarrassing.

Anyways, here are three things to know for this matchup.

FSU's Run Defense

Florida State has allowed an average of 139.8 rushing yards per game for 4.2 yards per carry. A massive chunk of that was because of Alabama, who torched them for 247 yards on the ground.

Virginia wants to be a running football team, averaging 192 yards per game on the ground, but they've declined in rushing yards each week, bottoming out at just 119 yards against Delaware on 41 carries last week.

Still, you can expect Virginia to set the tone on the ground, especially with quarterback Beau Pribula, who has 125 rushing yards this year, but he's very capable with his legs. They're averaging 43 carries per game as they rely on their extremely veteran offensive line, which has three fifth-year seniors and two sixth-year players.

That's going to be the mismatch of the game, as FSU's defensive line is pretty young and small, and they've been bad at defending runs right up the middle, which is where Virginia has had success. Florida State started strong against the run against Alabama, but they wore down in the second half. It wouldn't be surprising to see this follow a similar trend.

Virginia uses a stable, as they have five players with between 100 and 180 rushing yards for the season. They keep their guys fresh.

Kevin Wynn needs to see more playing time. He's been ramping up his snap count over the last few weeks, but he's the only player who looks like a defensive lineman for Florida State.

Sep 19, 2026; Charlotte, North Carolina, USA; Virginia Cavaliers quarterback Beau Pribula (7) keeps the ball and runs against the West Virginia Mountaineers during the first quarter at Bank of America Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jim Dedmon-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

Is Chris Jones Healthy?

FSU linebacker Chris Jones left last week against Central Arkansas after a minor knee injury, but they let him go back into the game, which was a... curious decision. There was no reason to risk him in that game, even if it was good to see him healthy enough to go back in.

After the adrenaline wore off, though, it'll be interesting to see how his knee is responding. He's Florida State's best linebacker in a game like this against a running quarterback like Beau Pribula. I'll forever be scarred by Blake Nichelson turning the complete wrong way against Virginia last year with Chandler Morris.

If Jones is playing at the level we've come to expect from him, it can at least give FSU a chance.

How Did West Virginia Have Success Against Virginia?

One of the more surprising results of the season to me was West Virginia's 38-27 win over Virginia in Charlotte a few weeks ago. In the other three games against Delaware, NC State, and Norfolk State, the Cavaliers only allowed 14 points total. Granted, it's not the best competition, but West Virginia wasn't expected to be that good either.

The big difference was West Virginia's ability to run with their quarterback, Michael Hawkins Jr. He racked up 123 rushing yards on just 18 carries and three touchdowns, but he was complemented by running back Cam Cook, who also had 123 yards.

In the other three games combined, Virginia allowed opposing quarterbacks to rush for 58 yards. Florida State has to find success with the run game, but Ashton Daniels has to be decisive on his reads and pulls, which he hasn't done often this season.

Sep 26, 2026; Tallahassee, Florida, USA; Florida State Seminoles quarterback Ashton Daniels (14) looks to pass during the second half against the Central Arkansas Bears at Doak S. Campbell Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Melina Myers-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

Game Prediction

I think we might've seen Mike Norvell win his last game as Florida State's head coach last week against his alma mater, Central Arkansas. I've been consistent since we did our record prediction podcast on Hear the Spear that I think FSU loses out until the bye week after the Miami game, leading to Norvell's firing at that point.

Nothing Florida State has shown over the last few weeks will make me change that thinking.

I don't think Virginia's defense is that good, but Ashton Daniels is just such a concerning decision-maker.

This will likely come down to Beau Pribula. Can Florida State force him to beat them with his arm? Probably not, because they're not disciplined enough with their eyes and rushing lanes to keep him contained.

I'll take Virginia in this one.

Virginia 31, Florida State 23

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