College Football Straight Up Picks for Every Game in Week 5 (Bet Florida to Cruise Past Missouri)

We're four weeks into the college football season, and things are starting to get good as we enter the meat of the conference schedule.

Every week, I give you my pick to win every game that involves a team that's currently ranked in the top 25 in the country according to the AP Poll. We don't care about point spreads in this article; all I'm doing is trying to predict the winners.

College Football Week 5 Picks

Odds via BetMGM Sportsbook

No. 3 Notre Dame vs. North Carolina Prediction

Pick: Notre Dame -2000

No. 7 Alabama vs. No. 16 Mississippi State Prediction

I've been all in on Mississippi State this season, so it's time for me to put my money where my mouth is. The Bulldogs rank 19th in the country in adjusted EPA per play this season, along with a net success rate of +7.8%. Alabama is a great team too, but Mississippi State has the X-factor, quarterback Keelon Russell, who I believe is a legitimate Heisman Trophy candidate.

I think Mississippi State is going to get one of its biggest wins in program history.

Pick: Mississippi State +185

UCF vs. No. 20 Houston Prediction

Pick: Houston -475

Boston College vs. No. 21 SMU Prediction

Pick: SMU -1400

Vanderbilt vs. No. 2 Georgia Prediction

Pick: Georgia -2500

No. 5 Ohio State vs. No. 14 Iowa Prediction

Pick: Ohio State -625

No. 8 Florida vs. No. 25 Missouri Prediction

Florida's offense has been arguably the best in college football so far this season, ranking first amongst all teams in adjusted EPA per play and ninth in success rate. I see no reason why they'd slow down in a game against a solid but outmatched Missouri team.

Pick: Florida -210

Auburn vs. No. 17 Tennessee Prediction

Pick: Tennessee -285

No. 24 Kentucky vs. South Carolina Prediction

Kentucky's numbers have overall been better this season, including ranking 32nd in net adjusted EPA per play, above the Gamecocks, who come in at 40th in that metric. I understand South Carolina is at home, but if you're going to give me the better team at plus-money on the moneyline, I'm going to take it.

Pick: Kentucky +125

No. 10 BYU vs. TCU Prediction

TCU has been bad this season, ranking 64th in adjusted EPA per play and sporting a net success rate of -2.2%. Meanwhile, the BYU Cougars have a case to be the best team in the Big 12. I think the Cougars are going to steamroll them in this spot.

Pick: BYU -235

No. 4 Miami vs. Clemson Prediction

Pick: Miami -750

No. 12 Texas Tech vs. Colorado Prediction

Pick: Texas Tech -525

Washington vs. No. 18 USC Prediction

Pick: USC -375

Utah State vs. No. 22 Boise State Prediction

Pick: Boise State -1400

McNeese vs. No. 11 LSU Prediction

Pick: LSU N/A

No. 6 Indiana vs. Rutgers Prediction

Pick: Indiana -2500

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