How Many Wins Does Mike Norvell Need in 2026 to Keep His Job at FSU?

The Florida State Seminoles are entering a pivotal seventh year under head coach Mike Norvell in a stretch that saw the highest of highs and the lowest of lows. The Seminoles won the ACC in 2023 but followed that up with one of the worst records in Florida State history (2-10) and failed to make a bowl game again, finishing a 5-7 season in 2024.

This has left the Seminole faithful questioning whether or not Norvell can turn things around following their College Football Playoff Snub in 2023, which seemed to send FSU into a downward spiral. Another question circling the fan base is how many wins Florida State will need to save Norvell's job?

2026 Could be a Make-or-Break Year for Norvell

Oct 26, 2024; Miami Gardens, Florida, USA; Florida State Seminoles head coach Mike Norvell watches from the sideline against the Miami Hurricanes during the second quarter at Hard Rock Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Sam Navarro-Imagn Images | Sam Navarro-Imagn Images

The Seminoles have put 17 games in the loss column over the past two seasons and have failed to win a road game in two years with their last being against the Florida Gators during FSU's ACC Championship run. With 2025 considered a rebuilding year, 2026 could make or break the ice that the Texas native is standing on completelty.

"Norvell can help stabilize the program by restoring momentum," Brad Crawford of CBS Sports wrote. "The Seminoles have dropped 17 games over the past two seasons since being left out of the College Football Playoff as ACC champions in 2023, a downturn that has intensified scrutiny entering 2026."

Bowl Game or Bust?

The general consensus is that Norvell will need to go 6-6 at the very minimum to keep his job at the helm, which would put them in the running for a lower-tier bowl that could satiate a newer generation of fans. However, the ones who got to witness the dynasty years in Tallahassee, Florida, might not be happy with another fingers-crossed, white-knuckle season. To them, anything below seven wins with an outlook for more, and dusting off the pitchforks might be the only alternative.

Norvell received a vote of confidence from the top brass when they extended him after the 2023 season. To an already strapped-for-cash athletics department coming fresh off renovations to Doak Campbell Stadium and a new Football Only Facility, his roughly $60 million buyout likely already bought him another year.

Still, another season that falls short of Florida State’s standard could test that patience, but the funds would have to come from somewhere, and anything less than bowl eligibility could put the program on track for yet another coaching search by the end of 2027.

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