What We Need To See From FSU Football In Season Opener Against New Mexico State

7-17.

Florida State, a program with a rich history over the past nearly 50 years, is just 7-17 over its last two seasons and has not won a single road game in that timeframe.

With Mike Norvell entering his seventh season in Tallahassee, that's simply unacceptable, and it has him on the hottest seat in all of college football.

This is personally the most pessimistic I have been entering a season in my time watching Florida State football.

I could go through every reason why, but it comes down to me thinking this team downgraded on talent from last year, filling holes with true freshmen who won't play, and that Norvell is calling plays again.

2024 was the last time Norvell called plays, and it was the worst football-watching experience of my life, and I watched JJ McCarthy and Max Brosmer throw passes for my Minnesota Vikings last year.

Even in 2022 and 2023, which were good offenses by the metrics, a lot of those plays were saved by Jordan Travis keeping plays alive and Trey Benson being one of the best in the country at breaking tackles.

Norvell loves his counters, slot fades, and bubble screens. When those aren't working, the offense looks really rough, and Ashton Daniels is nowhere near as agile as Jordan Travis was to keep plays alive.

Their first game of the season is a Week 0 matchup against New Mexico State, Saturday at 7 p.m. EST on the CW Network in Doak Campbell Stadium.

We likely won't see anything in this first game that will make fans have a more positive outlook. New Mexico State is coming off a 4-8 season, and while they brought in some FCS talent in the transfer portal, they are still projected to be one of the worst teams in Conference USA.

However, here are three things that I'll be keeping a close eye on.

Ashton Daniels' Confidence

Ashton Daniels is one of the more divisive quarterbacks in the country. There has been some positive buzz about him recently from people such as Brooks Austin, but when the starting quarterback has a self-diagnosed issue with confidence, that's a problem.

I don't expect him to light up the scoreboard with 300 passing yards or multiple touchdowns every game, but FSU needs him to show poise in the pocket and to be able to make the simple throws. His season high for passing touchdowns is 11. Stanford wasn't a good program, but he was still throwing to future NFL players like Elic Ayomanor and Sam Roush.

If he comes out and has a rough game, say 11/21 for 135 yards, no touchdowns, and an interception, how much would that impact his confidence moving forward? Given his history, it would probably crater the Florida State offense in a hurry.

Even if he has a good game, which, by his standards, would be 16/23 for 250 yards, two touchdowns, and no picks, can he carry that into the Labor Day matchup against SMU? His confidence is going to define the season.

The Pass Rush

Florida State's pass rush was non-existent at times last year. They totaled 31 sacks, but it was a lot of coverage sacks. Teams often had well over three seconds per dropback against FSU.

To answer those issues, they went with Rylan Kennedy in the transfer portal, a career backup at Texas A&M who has totaled 5.5 sacks in 37 games, and Jalen Anderson, one of the top EDGE rushers coming from the JUCO ranks.

A lot of pressures are going to have to come from the defensive line, once again, so Mandrell and Daryl Desir, Daniel Lyons, and Deamontae Diggs will have to step up. But the depth behind them is very weak. If one or two guys deal with injury, this threatens to be one of the worst fronts in the ACC.

Florida State head coach Mike Norvell watches as players put in work during practice with the first home game just a few weeks away, Thursday, Aug. 13, 2026. | USA TODAY Network via Reuters Connect

How Different Will the Offense Be?

Gus Malzahn was the playcaller last year, but a surprise retirement in February puts Mike Norvell back in the playcalling seat. That concerns me.

The offense graded out well last year, averaging 472 yards per game, but if you take out the two dominations against Kent State and East Texas A&M, that drops significantly to 416 yards per game. That's the difference between being 6th in total offense and being 32nd last year, and they struggled mightily with turnovers and failed fourth-down conversions.

The offense will likely look similar, but they're relying on a quarterback who has 24 career interceptions and has fumbled 16 times. For those keeping track, he has 35 total touchdowns in the air and on the ground. They can't rely on him to consistently make plays.

They might be able to pile up the yards and points in this game, but it'll have to carry into the rest of the season.

Florida State-New Mexico State Score Prediction

We're changing up our preview styles this year, thankfully, but I'll still be providing score predictions.

FSU shouldn't have any issues in this game. Even if the Seminoles aren't that talented, they should overwhelm the Aggies. If FSU doesn't win by at least four scores, they're going to have some major issues this season.

Florida State 55 - New Mexico State 10

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