Will FSU Football Carry Momentum Over Against Louisville?

Of all the results that I could've seen coming from Saturday's game against Virginia, Florida State dominating the game was not one I had considered.

And now, as you look at the rest of the schedule, could FSU pick up some wins in the next few games? Louisville sits at 2-3, coming off back-to-back losses to Wake Forest and NC State. Pitt just lost their starting quarterback for the season. Clemson and Boston College are gettable.

Yet, this is still a Mike Norvell-led team, so anything is possible. They still haven't won a road game since November 2023, and this game against Louisville will be on the road.

Saturday's win just felt like an out-of-body experience. A defense that had 7 total sacks entering the game had 10 on Saturday alone. Part of that was Beau Pribula being incapable of threatening FSU's secondary deep, and that could be a similar story with Lincoln Kienholz at Louisville.

But the only thing we've learned from the Mike Norvell experience over the last few years is to expect the unexpected. So, anything goes in this matchup.

Here are three things I'm wondering heading into this game.

Oct 3, 2026; Tallahassee, Florida, USA; Florida State Seminoles defensive lineman Rylan Kennedy (15) celebrates a sack with defensive lineman Mandrell Desir (3) during the game against the Virginia Cavaliers at Doak S. Campbell Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Melina Myers-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

Was FSU's Defensive Performance a Fluke or Something to Build On?

Florida State's defense was on a new level last weekend, holding Virginia's offense to just 7 points and 205 total yards while racking up 10 sacks.

While nothing is impossible, it would be borderline stunning if they matched those numbers in this game.

Louisville may have lost three games already, including their last two against Wake Forest and NC State, but it wasn't really because of the offense. They still had 399 yards and 485 yards in those two losses, respectively.

The real test will be on the ground. Louisville makes its money running the football, as it had 525 rushing yards in its two wins. In their loss to Wake Forest, they had just 75.

FSU was able to hold Virginia, a strong running team, to 37 rushing yards, though it would've been 105 without the sacks.

Louisville has much better running back talent, so this will be a tough challenge. Lincoln Kienholz is formidable with his legs, and while I still don't trust him as a passer, he has a much better arm than Pribula did at Virginia.

A New Gameplan For Ashton Daniels

I find it somewhat humorous that in an effort to get around Ashton Daniels' inconsistency in throwing the ball, they just kept him from passing and used him more with his legs.

No one expected five rushing touchdowns, and it likely won't happen again. But is it something we can expect to see more of?

Teams are going to continue to load the box to stop Ousmane Kromah, and now they'll need an extra eye on Daniels running.

In theory, that could open up the passing game more. In theory. I still just do not trust him to throw the ball.

Louisville's defense isn't great. They have a great pass rusher in Clev Lubin and not much else, and are particularly weak in the middle of the defensive line. Their secondary isn't great. If there's a game for Daniels to get going, it's this one.

Sep 19, 2026; Tuscaloosa, Alabama, USA; Florida State Seminoles quarterback Ashton Daniels (14) warms up before the game against the Alabama Crimson Tide at Saban Field at Bryant-Denny Stadium. Mandatory Credit: David Leong-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

Florida State's Well-Documented Road Struggles

I don't need to beat it over the head on how much FSU has struggled to win on the road. Go read my Alabama preview if you want more information on it.

In short, FSU still only has three games in this 9-game road losing streak where they kept it a one-score game, which is a new level of embarrassment that I can't really fathom.

Couple that with this being a weekday game on a Friday, and we could have a real doozy.

Showing up and showing out on the road would really throw Florida State fans for a loop. A lot of fans are all the way out on the experience, and while we should want to get out of the road losing cycle as soon, I don't think we see an end in sight for it yet.

Game Prediction

I have two scores in mind, which feels like cheating. I don't expect Florida State to end their road losing streak here, even if they give it their best shot.

Louisville has struggled recently, but it's do-or-die for a team that had legitimate ACC championship hopes. They still have the offensive talent needed to make a run, and with games coming up against Syracuse, Stanford, and Georgia Tech after this, they absolutely can, but they need to win this first.

FSU found some things that can work against Virginia, but I think they're going to lean too far into that rather than bring something new to this game.

I went back and forth between a 31-20 game and a 27-26 game. I'll go with the closer one even though this game could have a wide range of outcomes.

Louisville 27, Florida State 26

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