Projecting Florida State's Initial College Football Playoff Ranking
The College Football Playoff Committee will release their first College Football Playoff rankings tomorrow, Tuesday the 31st, at 7 p.m. on ESPN, which brings a lot of intrigue into how the committee will decide on the top grouping of teams. How they'll weigh the strength of schedule, "game control" and team metrics will carry a lot of weight throughout the rest of the season.
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In this piece, we'll discuss the remaining undefeated Power 5 teams and see if we can predict how the CFP Committee will order this top grouping of teams, using a number of different metrics from different sites and statisticians. The remaining undefeated Power 5 teams are Florida State, Georgia, Michigan, Ohio State, and Washington.
Florida State's Body of Work
Strength of Schedule and Record
A team's strength of schedule can be defined in a number of different ways. There'll be better examples down the board on the disparity, but Sagarin has FSU's strength of schedule at 48th, ESPN's FPI has FSU's SOS at 49th, while a stat-compilation site like teamrankings.com has FSU's SOS Power Rating at 7th.
The big jump for Florida State comes in the strength of record, where they sit 2nd on ESPN's FPI. FSU has played seven Power 5 opponents to this point, with every single one of those teams sporting at least a record of .500 or better, though that will change this weekend with FSU playing 2-6 Pitt, 4-4 Clemson playing Notre Dame at home, and 4-4 Wake Forest playing at Duke, and 4-4 Virginia Tech playing at Louisville. For as much grief as FSU has gotten for barely beating Boston College, BC is 5-3 and is close to clinching a bowl win.
You can also argue Florida State has the most convincing win of these five teams, dominating LSU 45-24 on a neutral field, and that score is only as respectable as it is since LSU scored a late, garbage time TD. No one else has held LSU under 30 points, and only Arkansas has held them to below 40. Since that opening night game, LSU has averaged an insane 44.2 PPG against P5 competition and is currently the 3rd ranked offense on SP+ and is first in PPG overall nationally. For FSU to hold them to essentially half of that is extremely impressive.
Florida State has a very good resume, despite the notion some fans like to speculate that they've had a weaker schedule. It is a little weaker down the stretch, with games at Pitt, vs Miami, vs North Alabama, and at Florida remaining. Miami is the highest-rated of those teams on SP+ at 23, while Florida is at 35.
Pro Football Focus Grade
PFF isn't perfect, but it does a decent job of showing a narrative. Currently, Florida State sits 13th overall, with a grade of 92.3, an offensive grade of 84.2, and a defensive grade of 90.4. Relative to the other teams we're discussing here, that puts FSU 5th overall, 4th on offense, and 4th in defense.
SP+ Ranking
We've talked about SP+ positioning to put opponents in perspective, but haven't yet discussed how FSU themselves sit. SP+ is also far from perfect, given Clemson is 21st and 5-3 Texas A&M is 17th, but it's better than nothing.
Florida State has seen themselves jump up in recent weeks to 8th in SP+, with the 8th ranked offense, 16th ranked defense, and 5th ranked special teams. Compared to the other teams here, that puts FSU 5th overall, 4th in offense, 4th in defense, and 1st in special teams.
FPI Ranking
FPI is another flawed ESPN metric with Texas A&M at 16th and Clemson at 20th, but we're using as many different metrics as we can find.
Florida State sits 7th, moving down one spot from last week, has the best remaining chance to win out at 50.3%, and is the only team FPI gives a total win projection above 12. If we go by their efficiencies, however, FSU is 4th in total efficiency, 7th in offensive efficiency, 11th in defensive efficiency, and 20th in special teams efficiency. Relative to the other teams on this list, that puts FSU 4th in FPI, 3rd in TotEff, 4th in OffEff, 3rd in DefEff, and 2nd in SpecEff.
Sagarin Ranking
Jeff Sagarin has his own metric that is more used as a predictor I would say, much like KenPom in basketball, but still does a good job overall.
Florida State sits 8th in Sagarin, which would be 4th relative to the teams we're discussing here. There's a pretty substantial margin from FSU to Washington, which we'll discuss later.
Overall Offense
FSU is averaging 41.5 PPG (5th national, 1st relative to teams in this article), 453.0 yards of total offense per game (22nd national, 3rd relative), 285.3 passing yards per game (26th national, 4th relative), and 167.8 rushing yards per game (53rd national, 3rd relative), while only turning it over four times all year, 3rd nationally.
Overall Defense
FSU is allowing 18.3 PPG (20th national, 4th relative), 332.5 total yards per game (29th national, 4th relative), a completion percentage of 49.4% (1st national, 1st relative), 185.9 passing yards per game (19th national, 4th relative), and 146.6 rushing yards per game (71st national, 5th relative), while forcing 9 turnovers on the season.
Georgia's Body of Work
Strength of Schedule and Record
We'll start shortening these, as I did a lot of explaining in the FSU sections.
Georgia's strength of schedule is 81st in Sagarin's metric, 100th in FPI, and 37th on teamrankings.com, with an FPI strength of record of 7th somehow.
You can argue that UGA's schedule hasn't been too impressive, with their best wins coming at home against Kentucky and neutral site against Florida, but they've looked really good in those games but have struggled against Auburn and South Carolina. They have a much more difficult stretch coming up than many predicted before the season, playing Missouri, Ole Miss, and Tennessee, all teams within the top 20 of SP+.
Pro Football Focus Grade
Georgia has a grade of 93.7 (7th national, 3rd relative), an offensive grade of 88.5 (8th national, 3rd relative), and a defensive grade of 91.6 (16th national, 3rd relative).
SP+ Ranking
Georgia sits 2nd overall in SP+ rankings, 6th in offense, 5th in defense, and 13th in special teams. Relative to the other teams here, that puts them 2nd in overall SP+, 2nd in offense, 3rd in defense, and 3rd in special teams.
FPI Ranking
Georgia is 6th overall in FPI, 7th in overall efficiency, 8th in OffEff, 22nd in DefEff, and 93rd in special teams. Relative to the other teams, that puts them 4th in TotEFF, 4th in OffEff, 4th in DefEff, and 4th in SpecEff.
Sagarin Ranking
Sagarin has Georgia ranked 4th, which is 3rd relative to the other teams here, and is one of only two teams ranked in the top 20 to not have played a top 30 team.
Overall Offense
Georgia is averaging 40.5 PPG, (7th national, 3rd relative), 506.5 yards of total offense per game (4th national, 1st relative), 334.3 passing YPG (4th national, 2nd relative), and 172.4 rushing YPG (47th national, 2nd relative), while turning it over 9 times.
Overall Defense
Georgia is allowing 14.8 PPG (7th national, 3rd relative), 272.1 total yards per game (7th national, 3rd relative), a completion percentage of 57.2 (7th national, 3rd relative), 178.5 passing yards per game (15th national, 3rd relative), and 93.6 rushing yards per game (12th national, 2nd relative), while forcing 10 total turnovers.
Michigan's Body of Work
Strength of Schedule and Record
Michigan's strength of schedule sits 68th on Sagarin, 111th on FPI, and 51st on teamrankings.com, while their strength of record is 9th.
The biggest argument against Michigan will be their strength of schedule. They've only played three P5 teams with a record of .500 or better: Rutgers, Minnesota, and Nebraska. None of those teams are good, all sandwiched between 49th and 51st in SP+. That will pick up with games at Penn State, at Maryland, and home against Ohio State in the last three weeks of the season.
Pro Football Focus Grade
Michigan has an overall grade of 97.0 (1st national, 1st relative), an offensive grade of 93.0 (2nd national, 1st relative), and a defensive grade of 94.3 (2nd national, 1st relative).
SP+ Ranking
Michigan sits 1st overall in SP+ rankings, 7th overall in offense, 2nd in defense, and 7th in special teams. Relative to the other teams, that puts them 1st overall, 3rd in offense, 1st in defense, and 2nd in special teams.
FPI Ranking
Michigan is 2nd overall on the FPI while being 1st in TotEff, 2nd in OffEff, 1st in DefEff, and 111th in SpecEff (huge disparity between their SP+ and FPI special teams rankings). Relative to the other teams, it's a clean sweep across the board, except for special teams, where they're 5th.
Sagarin Ranking
Jeff Sagarin loves Michigan, with them being a pretty distant 1st, despite having not played any teams in the top 30. The distance between Michigan and the team ranked 2nd is more than the distance between the teams ranked 6th and 11th.
Overall Offense
Michigan is averaging 40.6 PPG (6th national, 2nd relative), total offensive yards of 421.6 YPG (46th national, 5th relative), 247.4 passing YPG (53rd national, 5th relative), and 174.3 rushing YPG (45th national, 1st relative), while only turning it over 5 times all season.
Overall Defense
Michigan is allowing just 5.9 PPG (very easily 1st national, 1st relative), 226.8 total YPG (1st national, 1st relative), a completion percentage of 54.1% (9th national, 3rd relative), 141.0 passing YPG (1st national, 1st relative), and 85.8 rushing YPG (7th national, 1st relative), while forcing 14 total turnovers.
On a side note, I'd be curious to see how their defense would play against a more high-octane offense, which just isn't going to happen until the postseason. The Big 10's offenses have been fairly brutal this year.
Ohio State's Body of Work
Strength of Schedule and Record
Ohio State has no doubt played a tough schedule, 22nd in Sagarin's schedule ranking, 15th in FPI's strength of schedule, and 2nd on teamrankings.com's schedule ranking, while being 1st in strength of record.
The Buckeyes have the best pair of wins in Penn State and at Notre Dame, and have added a couple of other quality wins playing at Wisconsin and Maryland, they just haven't looked that impressive on the offensive side in any of these games. They struggled against Maryland for the majority of the game, while looking very lackluster against Indiana, and are averaging just 27 points per game against Power 5 competition (boosted by 41 against Purdue).
There's not much ahead for Ohio State until the last game of the year, with games at Rutgers, vs Michigan State, vs Minnesota, and at Michigan remaining.
Pro Football Focus Grade
On PFF, Ohio State has an overall grade of 93.8 (6th national, 2nd relative), an offensive grade of 84.1 (19th national, 5th relative), and a defensive grade of 93.8 (3rd national, 2nd relative).
SP+ Ranking
Ohio State sits 3rd overall in the SP+ rankings, 16th in offense, 3rd in defense, and 20th in special teams. Relative to the other teams here, that would put them 3rd overall, 5th in offense, 2nd in defense, and 5th in special teams.
FPI Ranking
The Buckeyes are currently 1st overall on the FPI, 3rd in TotEff, 13th in OffEff, 3rd in DefEff, and 81st in SpecEff (another huge disparity between SP+ and FPI in special teams). Relative to the other teams here, that would put them 2nd overall, 5th in OffEff, 2nd in DefEff, and 3rd in SpecEff.
Sagarin Ranking
Ohio State sits comfortably in 2nd in the Sagarin rankings, sandwiched between Michigan and Alabama, but a decent margin between both teams.
Overall Offense
Ohio State is averaging 32.5 PPG (38th national, 5th relative), 428.8 total YPG (40th national, 4th relative), 295.0 passing YPG (16th national, 3rd relative), and 133.8 rushing YPG (93rd national, 4th relative) while turning it over 10 times this season.
Overall Defense
OSU is allowing 10.0 PPG (2nd national, 2nd relative), 260.0 total YPG (4th national, 2nd relative), a completion percentage of 50.7% (2nd national, 2nd relative), 160.3 passing YPG (T-4th national, 2nd national), and 99.8 rushing YPG (17th national, 3rd relative), while forcing 8 total turnovers.
Washington's Body of Work
Strength of Schedule and Record
Washington's strength of schedule is only 75th on FPI and 52nd on Sagarin, but they're 23rd on teamrankings.com and have a strength of record that sits 3rd. Their entire resume is based on the Oregon win, which is the best win so far this season. I think it's safe to say though, that if there was a rematch between Oregon and Washington in any stadium that wasn't Husky Stadium, Oregon likely wins. But this is based on the results so far.
Since that Oregon win, Washington has really struggled, just barely squeaking by PAC-12 lowlifes Arizona State and Stanford, who have a combined record of 4-12; Washington beat those two teams by a combined 17 points. They have a murderer's row of a schedule ahead at USC (teams might combine for 110 points), Oregon State, at Utah, and Washington State. I think most people would expect them to drop at least one of those games based on how they've played lately.
Pro Football Focus Grade
On PFF, Washington has an overall grade of 93.5 (8th national, 4th relative), an offensive grade of 92.3 (5th national, 2nd relative), and a defensive grade of 90.4 (23rd national, 5th relative).
SP+ Ranking
Washington sits 7th in SP+ overall, 4th in offense, 32nd in defense, and 14th in special teams. Relative to the other teams, this would put them 4th overall, 1st in offense, 5th in defense, and 4th in special teams.
FPI Ranking
The Huskies are currently 14th on the FPI while being 9th in TotEff, 4th in OffEff, 33rd in DefEff, and 13th in SpecEff. Relative to the other teams, this would put them 5th in TotEff, 2nd in OffEff, 5th in DefEff, and 1st in SpecEff.
Sagarin Ranking
Sagarin is not a fan of Washington, having them ranked 15th. All of the other teams are in the top 8, but they have a decent gap in rating to even 12th-ranked Oklahoma.
Overall Offense
Washington is averaging 40.4 PPG (9th national, 4th relative), 501.3 total YPG (5th overall, 2nd relative), 399.0 passing YPG (1st national by more than 50 yards, 1st relative), and 102.3 rushing YPG (119th national, 5th relative), while turning it over 12 times on the season.
Overall Defense
Washington is allowing 20.6 PPG (T-34th national, 5th relative), 400.3 total YPG (99th national, 5th relative), a completion percentage of 58.4% (T-40th, 5th national), 264.6 passing YPG (118th national, 5th relative), and 135.6 rushing YPG (58th national, 4th relative), while forcing 9 total turnovers.
Initial College Football Playoff Rankings Projection
There are a number of different directions you could rank these teams, and it'd be hard to argue with any of them. Four teams have a very realistic claim to be ranked 1st, with Washington being the obvious 5th team as of now, despite the best win of the season. They've just really struggled since then and I think people will be quick to write them off if and when they do lose. My personal rankings would be as follows:
1. Georgia
2. Ohio State
3. Florida State
4. Michigan
5. Washington
6. Oregon
To me, until Georgia loses, they're allowed to have that number one spot as a two-time defending national champion and we'll see if the committee agrees. Florida State and Ohio State have very similar resumes, and I don't think you can separate the two teams in good consciousness, though Ohio State's best two wins are better than FSU's two best.
Until Michigan plays anyone worth anything, it's hard to put them higher than 4th, even though they've played like the best team all year; they haven't struggled at all. It's also fair to wonder if the ongoing investigation of their sign-stealing scandal will have any impact on the committee's placement of them.
The Playoff committee generally values good wins and strength of schedule over anything, and while Georgia's schedule hasn't been a world-beater, it's nowhere near as bad as Michigan's.
Oregon is easily the best one-loss team in the country and should get that 6th spot, with teams like Alabama, Texas, Oklahoma, and Penn State following behind in no particular order.
We'll see if I'm right when the initial College Football Playoff rankings are released.
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