CFP Rankings Predictions: How Committee Should See OSU, Bama, Tennessee Debate
By this time next week, the final four teams for the college football playoff will have been announced and the stage will be set. With every passing week, it is looking more and more likely that Georgia will lock up the No. 1 seed barring a disaster in the SEC Championship.
If the Bulldogs do remain flawless through championship weekend, there are a few teams that they could potentially face in the opening round. Ohio State took a loss against Michigan this weekend and then LSU, who was ranked at No. 5 at the time, lost to Texas A&M. Those two losses mean that USC probably makes the jump from No. 6 to No. 4 and Alabama and Tennessee start to creep back into the mix after Clemson and Oregon both lost again this past weekend.
As for Georgia, their potential opponents are looking to be the USC Trojans and Ohio State with Alabama and Tennessee basically having a shot in the dark at squeezing their way in. So where will these teams be placed when the newest rankings roll out tonight and who will the committee have Georgia going up against going into championship weekend?
First, it's important to note what the playoff values when ranking these teams: Strength of schedule, conference championship, head-to-head, results vs ranked opponents, and results vs common opponents.
Based on those criteria, here is how we predict the rankings will play out:
- Georgia
- Michigan
- TCU
- USC
- Ohio State
- Alabama
- Tennessee
As mentioned before, in order for Alabama to jump back into the top four, complete and utter chaos would need to ensue this weekend. In layman's terms, pretty much every single top-four team would need to lose their conference championship game for them to even have a shot at getting in.
It might seem preposterous to have Alabama ahead of Tennessee considering the Volunteers beat them head-to-head and probably have the more impressive win between the two, but Tennessee's recent loss to South Carolina is what keeps them behind the Tide. And if the committee was willing to put Bama ahead of Tennessee last week, nothing occurred during rivalry week for them to make to flip-flop them this week.
So with all of that said, Georgia's current list of potential opponents is looking to be USC, Ohio State, or Alabama in that order. Even TCU could be added into the mix as well depending on how this weekend finishes. Georgia and Michigan pretty much have their spots locked up, now it's just a matter of letting the dust settle and determining who plays who when the playoff rolls around.
The final outcome of the rankings might seem easy to foresee right now, but as well know, it's hardly ever that simple and there are a lot of important football games left to be played.
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