ESPN Breaks Down Georgia's "Biggest Obstacle" in 2022
After ranking Georgia, number three in their official preseason "Football Power Index" (FPI), ESPN's Heather Dinich went through each top ten team in the FPI and broke down their path to the College Football Playoffs.
ESPN gives the Bulldogs a 73.5% chance of making the playoffs after losing fifteen players to the NFL Draft and ten others entering the NCAA transfer portal following the program's first national championship in 41-years.
When looking at No. 3 Georgia, Dinich believes that Georgia's biggest obstacle in getting back to the College Football Playoff will be from the SEC West.
"Going 3-0 against the West Division, including at home against Auburn and at Mississippi State during the regular season, and then whomever they would face in the SEC title game. Georgia can lose a regular-season game, but then it's in a must-win situation in the championship tilt."
Auburn, who ranks No. 10 according to the FPI, is heading into fall camp without a starting quarterback. Former starter Bo Nix transferred to Oregon this offseason after three years in the plains. In his three starters against the Bulldogs, Nix failed to beat Georgia after coming close his freshman season in 2019. After a turbulent offseason for head coach Bryan Harsin as he enters his second season in charge of the Tigers, ESPN seems to think more highly of Auburn than anyone else.
Mississippi State looks like the toughest challenge on the schedule of the opponents Georgia plays from the SEC West this coming season. The Bulldogs are entering their third season under Mike Leach and will have another year with quarterback Will Rodgers leading the pass-happy air raid offense.
Mississippi State will be a test to a Georgia defense that lost many of its superstars from a year ago and could even upset Georgia if the team gets complacent. The last time the two teams met in 2020, Georgia's debuting JT Daniels at quarterback threw for over 400 yards and four touchdowns, lifting Georgia to a 31-24 win over Mississippi State in Athens.
On paper, Oregon and Tennessee look to be the toughest test for Georgia in 2022. However, the schedule doesn't present a potential marquee matchup as 2021 did with the season opener against Clemson. So what will the playoff committee like about Georgia's potential resume?
"Road wins. Georgia's schedule includes neutral-site games against Oregon and Florida as well as true road trips to South Carolina and then to Mississippi State and Kentucky in back-to-back weeks in November. All of those teams have a great chance to finish in the committee's top 25."
With that, Dinich is adamant that while losing one game in the regular season is not the end for Georgia, losing the SEC East division will be something that ends the hope of making it back to the playoffs in 2022.
"No East Division title. It's not impossible for Georgia to finish in the top four without winning its division (Alabama and Ohio State have both done it), but the SEC East isn't as strong as those others. If that were to happen, Georgia would need the Ducks to have a spectacular season to help boost its résumé, and it would have had to win almost all of its other games in convincing fashion. The Bulldogs would be held to the same standard as Notre Dame without a conference title, meaning they would have to be "unequivocally" one of the four best teams."
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