Odds Have Changed for Georgia Football vs. Florida Gators

The move in the line is a fairly significant one

Georgia football QB Gunner Stockton against the Florida Gators. | USA TODAY Network via Reuters Connect

ATHENS - Odd have been updated to Georgia Football’s massive clash with the Florida Gators 48 hours before the rivals face off in Atlanta.

The Bulldogs and Gators are playing a one-off game in Atlanta this season, and one next year in Tampa as Jacksonville (the traditional home for this game) rebuilds its stadium. The anticipation for the game is growing as the weekend grows near.

What’s also growing is the betting line for the game. On Sunday FanDuel listed the Bulldogs as a 9.5-point favorite over the Gators. DraftKings had UGA as a 10.5-point favorite in the contest. Both betting houses now have Georgia as a 12.5-point favorite to win the game.

The move in the line is a fairly significant one - placing the game firmly into double-digit territory. Of course, betting lines are only an indication of what experts feel is expected to happen - they are not a guarantee of an outcome.

There are two reasons the line has be crept up over the week. First, both of Florida’s quarterbacks are injured in some form.

Athens-area native Aaron Philo started the first six games of the Gators’ season, but missed Florida’s 27-24 win at Texas with a shoulder injury. Tramell Jones started for the Gators in that game and guided the Gators to an upset in Austin. Jones has “wear-and-tear” injuries.

Georgia football TE Jaden Reddell celebrates with Georgia football RB Chauncey Bowens after scoring a touchdown against Vanderbilt. | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

Florida coach Jon Sumrall said Monday that he would not name a starter at that time.

“Both guys are available - believe in both guys,” Sumrall told reporters. “Not going to name a starter today. We need both those guys to be ready to play.”

Both Gator quarterbacks were listed as questionable Wednesday night on the SEC’s mandated injury report. In addition, Georgia got very good news with an upgrade for running back Chauncey Bowens, who was upgraded to questionable from out, which is where he’s been the last few weeks. Bowens scored the game-winning touchdown against the Gators last year in Jacksonville.

Second, there was likely some overreaction to Georgia’s upset loss to Auburn at home, and the Gators’ upset win on the road at Florida. Most of the summer this game was listed around the 12-point mark. Florida’s play early in the season dropped the number under ten points, but that recovered to back over double digits after Florida was blown out in back-to-back losses to Missouri and South Carolina.

But only twice in modern history has a double-digit favorite lost this game (1997 and 2014). In both upsets turnovers and a robust run game powered the underdog to an unexpected win.

Since 2010, the Bulldogs have been favored to beat the Gators 13 times in the last 16 games. Georgia is 11-5 straight up against the Gators since then - losing in overtime as a one-point favorite in 2010, a 10-point favorite in 2014, a 3-point underdog in 2015, a 6.5-point underdog in 2016 and a 3-point favorite in 2020.

On average the Dawgs have been a 6.5-point favorite to beat Florida since 2010. The team that runs the ball better in the World’s Largest Outdoor Cocktail Party is 15-1 since 2010 (2020 - Florida, 44-28).