What do SP+ and ESPN's FPI Project for Georgia Tech vs Duke Matchup?
This Saturday's game between Georgia Tech and Duke is slated to be a close one if you follow either SP+ or ESPN's FPI.
Both analytical projection systems have not viewed Georgia Tech favorably this season and in most cases (Clemson, Ole Miss, Pitt, and UCF), have only given Georgia Tech a 10-15% chance to win. Well the projections were wrong last week and hopefully, they will be once again.
Can Georgia Tech continue to have success vs Duke on Saturday?
ESPN uses its FPI (Football Power Index) as an advanced analytical model to help look at matchups and predict outcomes. In ESPN's own words: "FPI is a predictive rating system designed to measure team strength and project performance going forward. The ultimate goal of FPI is not to rank teams 1 through 128; rather, it is to correctly predict games and season outcomes. If Vegas ever published the power rankings it uses to set its lines, they would likely look quite a lot like FPI."
ESPN's FPI is giving Duke a 60% chance to win the game on Saturday. Remember though, FPI gave Pitt a 90% chance last week.
An identical look is also coming from ESPN's Bill Connelly, who uses his own SP+ system.
Here is what SP+ is in Connelly's own words:
"What is SP+? In a single sentence, it's a tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency. I created the system at Football Outsiders in 2008, and as my experience with both college football and its stats has grown, I have made quite a few tweaks to the system."
"SP+ is intended to be predictive and forward-facing. It is not a résumé ranking that gives credit for big wins or particularly brave scheduling -- no good predictive system is. It is simply a measure of the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football. If you're lucky or unimpressive in a win, your rating will probably fall. If you're strong and unlucky in a loss, it will probably rise."
SP+ is giving Duke a 58% chance to win this weekend and is projecting the score to be 31-28.
Georgia Tech is going to be looking to earn back-to-back wins for the first time since 2018. Interim head coach Brent Key will look to move to 2-0 as the Yellow Jackets head coach.
Georgia Tech vs Duke is slated to kickoff Saturday at 4:00 p.m. at Bobby Dodd Statdium.
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