What Does SP+ and ESPN's FPI Project for Georgia Tech vs Miami?
Entering the season, the game between Georgia Tech and Miami was not expected to be close. Miami was a preseason top-15 team and the pick to win the Coastal Division and this was supposed to be just another stepping stone for the Hurricanes on their way to the ACC title game.
Georgia Tech is a small favorite on Saturday against Miami
That is not what the Hurricanes are getting into this weekend against the Yellow Jackets. Georgia Tech has the same record as Miami and is entering the game with more momentum. With senior day and the last home game of the year being on Saturday, Georgia Tech is sure to come into this game energized and Miami will have to match that.
So while the betting markets favor Georgia Tech by a small margin this weekend, what about some of the prominent analytics systems?
ESPN uses its FPI (Football Power Index) as an advanced analytical model to help look at matchups and predict outcomes. In ESPN's own words: "FPI is a predictive rating system designed to measure team strength and project performance going forward. The ultimate goal of FPI is not to rank teams 1 through 128; rather, it is to correctly predict games and season outcomes. If Vegas ever published the power rankings it uses to set its lines, they would likely look quite a lot like FPI."
This week, FPI is giving Miami a 55% chance to win in Atlanta on Saturday.
SP+ thinks Miami should be a more decisive favorite over Georgia Tech. SP+ has Miami with a 66% chance to win and a seven-point favorite.
Here is what SP+ is in Connelly's own words:
"What is SP+? In a single sentence, it's a tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency. I created the system at Football Outsiders in 2008, and as my experience with both college football and its stats has grown, I have made quite a few tweaks to the system."
"SP+ is intended to be predictive and forward-facing. It is not a résumé ranking that gives credit for big wins or particularly brave scheduling -- no good predictive system is. It is simply a measure of the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football. If you're lucky or unimpressive in a win, your rating will probably fall. If you're strong and unlucky in a loss, it will probably rise."
It should be noted that SP+ and FPI favored Virginia Tech last week. It will be up to the Yellow Jackets to prove the computers wrong once again.
Georgia Tech vs Miami will kickoff at 3:30 on Saturday afternoon
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